Keep up with the winners: Experimental evidence on risk taking,asset integration,and peer effects

The paper reports the result of an experimental game on asset integration and risk taking. We find some evidence that winnings in earlier rounds affect risk taking in subsequent rounds, but no evidence that real life wealth outside the experiment affects risk taking. Controlling for past winnings, participants receiving a low endowment in a round engage in more risk taking. We test a ‘keeping-up-with-the-Joneses’ hypothesis and find that subjects seek to keep up with winners, though not necessarily with average earnings. Overall, the evidence suggests that risk taking tracks a reference point affected by social comparisons.     

外资银行在拉美国家银行改革中的作用

20世纪80年代末至90年代初,受“华盛顿共识”影响,拉美国家开始了大规模的银行私有化改革。1994年末的墨西哥金融危机之后,为了缓解危机和提高银行经营效率,多数拉美国家在银行私有化改革中积极鼓励外资银行进入。对于新兴市场国家而言,盲目地西化,照抄照搬发达国家的经济模式不利于本国经济的健康发展。只有依据经济规律,根据本国实际采取适合自己发展水平和管理水平的金融体系,各个经济要素才能实现最优配置和利益的最大化。     

房地产定价理论与方法研究

房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,其兴衰直接影响整个国民经济的稳定与发展,因此,围绕房地产而开展的相关研究一直是学术界的一个热点问题。然而,由于房地产类资产规模较大,且普遍具有较强的异质性、不易流动性、不可分割性等特征,其交易信息与数据难以获得,致使对房地产资产的定价研究难度较大。本文试图总结与归纳现有房地产定价理论与方法的研究文献,深入分析房地产市场的宏观结构及微观主体,探寻房地产价格形成与演化过程中的关键影响因素,并为我国房地产业实现健康有序发展提供科学依据。     

人力资本价值、外部性与产权

人力资本价值包括使用价值和稀缺性价值,随着经济形态的演变,人力资本价值将上升,而且人力资本具有极强的正外部性,这是人力资本产权确立的重要基础.我国在进行物质资本产权制度改革的同时必须尽快建立一个有效的人力资本产权制度,以促进人力资本的形成和有效利用,这是我国在知识经济时代能否实现现代化目标、赶上发达国家的重要前提.     

Cross-sectional quantile regression for estimating conditional VaR of returns during periods of high volatility

Evaluating value at risk (VaR) for a firm’s returns during periods of financial turmoil is a challenging task because of the high volatility in the market. We propose estimating conditional VaR and expected shortfall (ES) for a given firm’s returns using quantile regression with cross-sectional (CSQR) data about other firms operating in the same market. An evaluation using US market data between 2000 and 2020 shows that our approach has certain advantages over a CAViaR model. Identification of low-risk firms and a reduction in computing times are additional advantages of the new method described.     

Asset pricing and energy consumption risk

This paper proposes energy consumption in the US as a new measure for the consumption capital asset pricing model. We find that (i) industrial energy growth produces reasonable values for the relative risk aversion coefficient and the implied risk-free rate; (ii) compared to alternative consumption measures, industrial energy performs well in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns with the lowest implied risk aversion and pricing errors; (iii) the industrial energy consumption risk model performs equally well as the Fama–French three-factor model in the cross-sectional asset pricing tests; and (iv) total energy consumption risk is priced in the presence of the Fama–French factor risks.     

Overcapacities in banking: Measurement,trends and determinants

Global banks face profitability challenges since the global financial crisis. Besides cyclical factors, structural features such as overcapacities have been identified as root causes. While policymakers agree on the need for bank consolidation, there is less consensus on the definition and measurement of overcapacities in banking. This paper contributes by conceptualising and formalising the different dimensions of overcapacities in banking and by constructing a novel measure thereof. In addition, it empirically tests the main determinants of overcapacities in banking from 2006 to 2017 and assesses their relative importance. The results indicate that non-bank competition, the interest rate environment and bank business models are the most important driving factors of banking sector overcapacities. This is because shadow banks, benefitting from regulatory arbitrage, have altered banks’ capacity needs, low rates compressed margins and increased pressure to improve cost efficiencies, and retail-oriented business models have operated extensive branch networks entailing heavy fixed costs.     

研发人力资本配置与技术创新——异质教育层次视角

在经济增长结构性减速和经济向高质量转型发展背景下,探讨研发人力资本有效配置对中国经济结构转型发展具有重要现实意义。基于中国2009-2018年省际面板数据,根据教育层次异质性,将研发人力资本细分为本科及以下、硕士与博士3种类型,运用静态和动态面板回归模型,从创新总量与细分创新类型视角分析不同教育层次研发人力资本作用于技术创新的差异化特征。统计分析和实证研究表明,中国地区不同教育层次研发人力资本配置不平衡,本科及以下研发人力资本占据主导地位,而本科及以下研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有一定抑制效应,硕士研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有显著正向作用,博士研发人力资本对地区技术创新没有呈现显著正面效应,且相比于硕士研发人力资本具有更低的创新产出弹性,在科研创新效率方面没有体现出预期的教育优势。研究结果对中国高层次人力资本在技术创新中的优化配置和经济结构转型发展具有积极的借鉴意义。     

风险投资退出机制研究:来自广东的经验

股权退出机制使得风险资本能够实现循环投资,也是风险投资中潜在或外在的有关公司控制权的激励合约的组成部分之一。本文以广东为例,说明了退出机制差异造成了我国内外资风险投资机构的经营差距,而退出机制差异主要体现为国内资本市场体系不完善,进而提出了建设多层次资本市场的相关对策选择。     

中国非农自雇活动的转换进入分析

本文利用中国健康与营养调查的微观面板数据,分析了我国非农自雇活动转换进入的决定因素。本文把初始状态区分为工资雇佣和失业,最终状态则划分为无雇工自雇和有雇工自雇,另外,对无雇工自雇转入有雇工自雇也进行了剖析。结果显示:不管初始状态如何,代际人力资本传递在自雇进入中发挥了重要作用;年龄和性别变量只对失业转入自雇有影响;由失业转入自雇的概率比由工资雇佣转入自雇的概率高;工资雇佣转入有雇工自雇的概率与失业转入有雇工自雇的概率相差不大,但工资雇佣转入无雇工自雇的概率与失业转入无雇工自雇的概率之间存在巨大差异;高等教育在无雇工自雇转入有雇工自雇的工作岗位创造过程中起到了显著的推动作用。