Does economic policy uncertainty affect cryptocurrency markets? Evidence from Twitter-based uncertainty measures

Using daily data from August 9, 2015, to July 7, 2020, this study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the returns of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. To this end, two new measures of EPU (Twitter-based economic uncertainty and Twitter-based market uncertainty) are considered. A Granger causality test using the recursive evolving window approach shows a significant causality between the Twitter-based EPU measures and the BTC/USD exchange rate from October 2016 to July 2017. Moreover, a significant causality was noted from the EPU measures to the ETH/USD exchange rate from June 2019 to February 2020 and from the EPU measures to the XRP/USD exchange rate from January 2020 to February 2020. The Twitter-based EPU measures primarily positively affect the returns of the related cryptocurrencies during these periods. These results are robust to different measures of Twitter-based EPU and different econometric techniques. Potential implications, including the COVID-19 era, are also discussed.     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

An Exploratory Study on Nonlinear Causality Among the MILA Markets

According to conventional portfolio theory, an increase in the interconnectedness of international financial markets may reduce the potential for constructing diversified portfolios. This article explores the implications of the creation of the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA)¹ over the dependence structure of its members using correlation and cointegration analysis as well as linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. The creation of MILA aimed to enhance the integration process that Latin American financial markets “naturally” present while still providing diversification opportunities to investors. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that such objective is being achieved. Evidence of a rise in cross-country linear correlations and their linear causal relationship supports the idea of an increasing financial integration process in the region, while the absence of cointegration and the weakening of the nonlinear causal relationship favors the creation of diversified regional portfolios. These findings provide valuable insights for investment portfolio designers, regulators, and supervisors.     

Investigating first‐stage exchange rate pass‐through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries

In this paper, we evaluate the first‐stage pass‐through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aimed to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors versus macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass‐through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross‐country differences in pass‐through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass‐through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass‐through. Using the system generalised method of moments within a dynamic panel‐data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import‐price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first 3 years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass‐through is comprised of both macro‐ and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account.     

Microfinance and gender inequality: cross-country evidence

Microfinance enables poor women to engage in income-generating activities, which helps them become financially independent, strengthening their decision-making power within the household and society. Consequently, microfinance has the potential to reduce gender inequality (GI). Case-study evidence from across the developing world both supports and contradicts this hypothesis. We therefore revisit this issue using macroeconomic cross-country panel data for 64 developing economies over the period 2003–2014. We find that women’s participation in microfinance is associated with a reduction in GI. However, regional interactions reveal that cultural factors are likely to influence the GI–microfinance nexus.     

基于Granger理论展开的物流发展研究

通过指标确定、数据收集、数据处理、平稳性分析、Granger分析、最佳滞后期分析等一系列分析研究，探讨了我国物流产业与宏观经济之间的相互作用。最后，结合实证模型为我国物流发展提出了具体的对策与建议。     

Can the Islamic bank be an emerging leader? A panel data causality analysis

This short note investigates the ability of Islamic banks (IBs) to play a leading role in revamping and driving conventional banking. To this end, we used a panel of 10 major conventional banks (CBs) and 10 IBs over the period 2006–2013. We applied panel regression tests and carried out a panel causality analysis. Our findings identified no significant causality effect from IBs to CBs and indicated that IBs are not able to play a role of leader.     

Financial stress,sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.     

“省直管县”财政体制如何促进经济增长——基于江苏省2004-2009年数据的实证分析

近几年来,"省直管县"财政体制在各省陆续实施,其主要目的在于克服既有的市管县体制存在的各种弊端。可以预期,这项改革措施有减少行政管理成本、解决县乡财政困难、促进县域经济增长等多种潜在作用。但可能存在的问题是,该财政体制如何促进经济增长?文章利用江苏省51个县(市)2004-2009年的空间面板数据进行分析发现,"省直管县"财政体制对经济增长的作用主要是通过县(市)扩权而产生的"政府竞争效应"实现的。     

Local banking and local economic growth in Italy: some panel evidence

This article provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian ‘province’) in Italy. A comprehensive data set is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.