基于“订单农业+期货”模型发展新疆棉花产业分析

传统的小农户生产方式严重阻碍了新疆棉花产业的发展,而现代农业的快速发展与利用期货市场是分不开的。本文探讨涉棉企业通过订单农业,打破小农户的生产方式,将小农户与涉棉企业的利益联系起来,并通过涉棉企业利用期货市场交易的优势来发展新疆棉花产业。     

新疆棉纺织业人力资源瓶颈制约及对策建议

资金、技术、运输、人才是制约新疆棉纺织业竞争力提升的四大瓶颈因素,其中,专业技术人才和熟练操作工的严重缺乏是最为突出的问题之一。本文针对新疆棉纺织业劳动生产率低、专业技术人员缺乏、研发能力弱等人力资源总量与配置方面存在的现实问题,从棉花深加工与高附加值战略需要人力资源支撑的基本观点出发,提出应高度重视并全面启动新疆本土棉纺织业专业人才培养计划和建立新疆棉花产业人才培养专项基金的政策建议。     

Ownership,financial strategy and performance: the Lancashire cotton textile industry, 1918–1938

This article assesses the validity of John Maynard Keynes' claim that the Lancashire cotton industry failed to restructure because the banks as debt holders prevented firms exiting the industry, creating persistent over-capacity. Using case studies from a substantial sample of Lancashire firms, the article explores archival evidence to establish their financial characteristics, to examine their equity and debt finance and the governance roles of directors and outside ownerhip groups. On the basis of this review the article develops hypotheses to suggest alternatives to the view that bank debt was the dominant explantion of firm level behaviour and industry failure. Applying these to a statistical dataset, results show that syndicates of local shareholders, not banks, were an important impediment to the exit of firms. Moreover, syndicates milked firms of any profits through dividends, thereby limiting reinvestment and re-equipment possibilities. Our results show that where laissez-faire fails in response to a crisis, incumbent investors, particularly block-holders, can be an important impediment to corporate restructuring.     

几种非正常棉的外观特征及含杂分析

着重对几种常见的典型非正常棉,如：清弹棉、棉短绒、清花落棉、盖板花、精梳落棉的外观特征、杂质成分及含量进行了较系统的分析,以期对制定非正常棉检验鉴别标准有所帮助,进而更好地为出入境检验检疫、纺织贸易及纺织生产加工服务。     

Between the firm and the market: An international comparison of the commercial structures of the cotton industry (1820–1939)

This article describes the ways in which cotton goods were commercialised during the nineteenth century and the first third of the twentieth. Several national cases are analysed: Britain as the Workshop of the World; France, Germany, Switzerland and the US as core economies; Italy and Spain as countries on the European periphery; and Japan as a successful export latecomer. The main question that we address is why some cotton industries vertically integrated their production and selling processes, but others did not. We present a model that combines industrial district size and product differentiation to explain why vertical integration was present in most cases and why there was vertical specialisation of production and selling in Lancashire, Lowell and Japan.     

基于籽棉交易价格分析的新疆棉花目标价格试点工作改进研究

[目的]已有研究对目标价格政策的分析具有较强的启发意义,但对籽棉交易价格方面的研究较少。文章通过实证数据分析影响籽棉交易价格的相关因素,试图找到植棉农户交易风险的重要变量。[方法]分区间统计新疆28个县市1 140份交易数据,使用分位数回归模型对整个数据样本进行解析,并采用bootstrap方法对籽棉交易价格进行分位数回归,进一步解释各因素对籽棉交易价格的影响。[结果](1)随着分位点的提高,籽棉交易数量对籽棉交易价格的影响程度呈现出先下降后上升的"U型"趋势,交易规模扩大对籽棉交易价格提升的作用较为明显;(2)在0.7分位点以前,有中介对籽棉交易价格的影响程度较为稳定;(3)随着分位点的提高,南疆对籽棉交易价格的影响程度越来越大;(4)在低分位点籽棉交易等级对籽棉交易价格的影响具有不确定性;(5)随着籽棉交易的进行,籽棉交易价格与籽棉交易时间呈现出显著的负相关关系。[结论]籽棉交易价格会因各种因素影响而发生变化,其中单个农户籽棉交易数量的提高会有利于单笔籽棉交易价格的提高,交易时间与籽棉交易价格具有明显负向关系;南北疆籽棉交易价格因地域不同而出现差别;棉花交易等级对籽棉交易价格形成具有显著影响,但同一长度不同等级籽棉交易价格基本一致;不同棉花交易主体对籽棉交易价格的形成具有较大影响。     

山东棉花生产布局的“双穷”特征和扶贫开发设想

山东省是棉花生产加工大省,棉花种植面积和产量均占全国15%,仅次于新疆。经过近30年的 变迁,山东省三大棉花主产区的地位发生了根本性变化。与此同时,棉农的种棉积极性受挫,棉花产量和 质量逐年降低。该文首先运用对比观察法和实地调研法,提出了山东省棉花生产布局的“双穷”特征,即 宏观上多分布于“穷地方”,微观上多集中于“穷人家”;然后运用协整分析法,证明了棉花种植面积与粮 棉比较收益之间存在长期趋势的一致性,继而得出比较收益是影响山东省棉花的空间分布特征和时间变化 趋势的重要因素。由于市场价格机制无法很好调节山东棉花主产区所呈现的“双穷”特征,在分析了比较 利益不合理的因素后,该文从政府扶贫开发的角度阐述了提高棉农收益、摆脱贫穷现状的路径设想,指出 政府的政策扶贫、科技扶贫和专项扶贫,是振兴棉花产业,解决棉区贫困的有效出路。     

Doha development agenda: implications for the US and world cotton markets

This study analyzed two scenarios that considered a reduction of the US aggregate measure of supports (AMS) payments by 60% over a five-year period. In the first scenario, which considered a unilateral action by the US, the targeted AMS payments reduction would require a 12% cut in the US target price and an 8% cut in the loan rate. This would lead to a 3% decline in US cotton production, a 3% rise in world cotton price, and a 26% decline in US cotton net farm income at the end of the implementation period. The second scenario analyzed the case in which the US AMS payments reduction is concomitant with multilateral tariff and subsidy eliminations from the rest of the world. Under this scenario, fewer cuts in the US loan rate and target price (i.e. 9 and 4%) were required to achieve the 60% AMS reduction because of market liberalization from the from the rest of the world. However, US cotton producers' net farm income still declined by 18%.