我国棉花期货价格的影响因素

棉花是除了粮食之外的第二大宗农产品,它对于促进农业的稳定发展和国家经济的安全具有极其重要的作用。然而,近年来棉花价格波动相当频繁,其波动原因也随之成为了社会的关注焦点。文章从供求因素、汇率因素、政策法规、投机因素等方面分析棉花期货价格波动的原因,从而提出相关对策建议。     

Bt Cotton,Pesticide Use and Environmental Efficiency in Pakistan

There is a broad literature on the impact of Bt cotton adoption in different countries, but few studies have explicitly looked at environmental and health effects from an economic perspective. We analyse the impact of Bt cotton on environmental efficiency in Pakistan, using farm survey data and a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production function framework. Negative environmental and health effects of chemical pesticide use are quantified with the environmental impact quotient. Bt‐adopting farms have higher cotton yields, while using lower pesticide quantities and causing less environmental damage. Bt farms are both technically and environmentally more efficient than non‐Bt farms. Bt adoption increases environmental efficiency by 37%. Achieving the same reduction in negative environmental and health impact without Bt would cost conventional cotton farmers US$ 54 per acre in terms of foregone yields and revenues (7% of total revenues). Extrapolating this shadow price of the technology's health and environmental benefits to the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan results in an aggregate value of US$ 370 million. These benefits are in addition to the profit gains for Bt‐adopting farmers. Our results suggest that Bt technology can contribute to sustainable agricultural development.     

中国棉花种植成本收益的演变

棉花是国家重要战略储备物资,历年棉花的播种面积、产量及价格,对棉花市场造成巨大影响,也影响着棉花产业的健康发展。研究棉花种植成本的变动,直接关系到棉农的经济收益。为对我国棉花种植收益的演变进行探析,文章基于1990~2013年中国棉花种植成本收益数据,运用趋势分析与比较分析法,对我国棉花种植成本收益的变化趋势进行研究。研究发现:(1)我国棉花种植成本由1990年265.63元/667m~2,增加到2013年2 177.5元/667m~2,增加了1 911.87元/667m~2,增长了7.2倍,年均增长率9.58%;(2)成本利润率由1990年的最大值102.87%,下降到2013年-9.87%的最低值,未来提高棉花成本利润率压力较大;(3)棉花出售价格变量与棉花种植的长期平均成本变量对棉花成本利润率影响显著,未来我国棉花种植是否能够获利,价格将成为关键影响因素。研究结论:(1)我国棉花种植成本收益正处于"高投入,低产出",规模报酬递减阶段;(2)棉花出售价格变量与棉花种植的长期平均成本变量,是影响我国棉花成本利润率关键变量,且棉花出售价格变量的影响更显著。研究建议:(1)完善我国棉花价格市场形成机制,避免棉花市场价格出现剧烈波动;(2)通过优化棉花生产环节,降低棉花生产成本;(3)贯彻落实国家生产补贴政策,使补贴资金及时、足额发放到户。     

Genetically Modified Crops: Their Market and Welfare Impacts

A framework is developed for examining price and welfare effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the short run, non-GM grain generally becomes another identity-preserved product. However, more profound market effects are observed under some reasonable parameterizations. When calibrated to reflect the U.S. corn market, introducing GM technology increases aggregate welfare over a wide range of scenarios, unless the corresponding production cost savings are small and consumers are seriously concerned about GM products. The possibility that GM technology may reduce aggregate welfare is interesting because the model assumes rational agents and does not include regulatory constraints.     

论黄道婆与长三角的崛起

长江三角洲是当今中国最具经济活力的地区之一。在长江三角洲区域经济中，轻纺工业占有突出的地位。长江三角洲地区棉纺手工业的兴起与繁盛，开启于元代著名棉纺织革新家黄道婆在松江的技术传授与改良。棉纺织业在长三角的大发展有力地促进了长三角的崛起。     

棉花价格暴涨暴跌对棉纺织企业及银行信贷资金的影响——基于纺织工业基地咸阳的个案分析

纺织产业是咸阳市支柱产业之一,其生产经营情况对咸阳市整体经济发展及银行信贷资金安全意义重大。棉花作为咸阳纺织产业的主要原材料,2010年以来的价格大幅波动对棉纺织企业造成了巨大影响,所形成的风险应引起企业经营者及银行的高度重视。     

两种有色植物染色的尝试

柑橘皮和黑莓都是天然植物染料,橘皮染色的性质相对于黑莓染色稳定,橘皮和黑莓等植物类染色原料染色是环保的染色方式,能减少环境污染,节省能源,相对合成染料非常廉价。可能有些种类容易褪色,但是值得推广的染色方式。     

新疆棉农残膜回收行为影响因素及实证研究*——基于棉农的调研数据

［目的］为响应农业农村部“农业绿色发展五大行动”,加强农业面源污染防治,缓解新疆棉田残膜危害,基于新疆棉农的问卷调查研究棉农的残膜回收行为。［方法］采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型分析影响新疆棉农残膜回收行为的因素。［结果］（1）新疆农用地膜回收率低,地膜污染形势严峻。（2）棉农对残膜危害认知缺乏,对残膜回收的间接价值认识不足,影响新疆残膜回收效率。（3）残膜回收的成本收益是影响棉农残膜回收行为的关键因素,其他如棉农年龄、种棉年限、对残膜危害的认知等自身特征,以及农户劳动力数量、政府对残膜污染的关注程度等因素对棉农的残膜回收行为有重要影响。［结论］网络及电视广播等现代媒体对棉农的残膜危害认知水平有较大影响,棉农更愿意采用成本更节约的焚烧、堆地的残膜处理方式。因此提出引导棉农残膜回收、提高棉田残膜回收效率的对策建议。     

What’s in a price? The American raw cotton market in Liverpool and the Anglo-American War

This article argues that an embryonic futures market was present in Liverpool during the Anglo-American War. The analysis of a previously unseen data-set of printed Prices Currents has facilitated not only a price series of raw cotton prices, but an in-depth analysis of the ‘construction’ of those raw cotton prices. By positing a definition of an embryonic futures market and then analysing each of the features of a such a market in turn, this study demonstrates the existence of an embryonic futures market in early nineteenth-century Liverpool.     

基于安全人机工程学的棉纺织企业事故隐患剖析及对策

本文运用安全人机工程学理论,从人、机、环境系统的角度,阐述了棉纺织企业存在的事故隐患共性,提出了预防事故的对策及措施,以期指导棉纺织企业安全生产管理实践,从而提高企业安全管理水平。