The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.     

DEA在仓库运作管理中的应用

数据包络分析能对决策单元的有效性进行评价。本文应用数据包络分析的C2R模型,对仓库的运作效率进行研究。选取某部的8个备件仓库为样本,基于C2R模型计算结果,得到一些有价值的仓库运作管理方面的信息。     

Conceptualizing and measuring “industry resilience”: Composite indicators for postshock industrial policy decision-making

Can resilience be a relevant concept for industrial policy? Resilience is usually described as the ability of a socioeconomic system to recover from unexpected shocks. While this concept has caught the attention of regional economics researchers seeking to understand the different patterns behind regional recovery after a disruption, it is increasingly recognized that resilience can have policy-relevant conceptual applications in many other regards. In this paper, we apply it to industries and define the “industry resilience” concept and measurements. Our contribution is twofold. Theoretically, we frame industry resilience as a useful conceptual framework for policy-making to support the selection of industrial policy targets that are more capable of recovering after unexpected shocks. In addition, industry resilience can mitigate government failures by supporting decision-makers in promoting both economically and socially sustainable structural change. Methodologically, building on post-2008 U.S. data, we develop two composite indicators (CIs) to separately analyze quantitative and qualitative postshock variations in sectoral employment. Such CIs support policy-makers in visualizing sectoral performances dynamically and multidimensionally and can be used to compare each sector both to other sectors and to its counterfactual. Our results highlight that sectors react heterogeneously to shocks. This points to the relevance of tailoring vertical industrial policies according to sector features and the aims of industrial policy initiatives.     

Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective review of the relevant literature on econometric methods for identifying housing bubbles together with some new methods of research and an empirical application. We first present a technical definition of a housing bubble that facilitates empirical work and discuss significant difficulties encountered in practical work and the solutions that have been proposed in the past literature. A major challenge in all econometric identification procedures is to assess prices in relation to fundamentals, which requires measurement of fundamentals. One solution to address this challenge is to estimate the fundamental component from an underlying structural relationship involving measurable variables. A second aim of the paper is to improve the estimation accuracy of fundamentals by means of an easy-to-implement reduced-form approach. Since many of the relevant variables that determine fundamentals are nonstationary and interdependent we use the endogenous instrumental variable based method (IVX) to estimate the reduced-form model to reduce the finite sample bias which arises from highly persistent regressors and endogeneity. The recursive evolving test proposed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (PSY) is applied to the estimated nonfundamental component for the identification of speculative bubbles. The new bubble test developed here is referred to as PSY-IVX. An empirical application to the eight Australian capital city housing markets over the period 1999–2017 shows that bubble testing results are sensitive to different ways of controlling for fundamentals and highlights the importance of accurate estimation of these housing market fundamentals.     

The asymmetry of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the euro-area

Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.     

Instrumental variables estimation with partially missing instruments

This paper shows that instrumental variables estimators currently in use, require strong but neglected auxiliary assumptions to be consistent in situations with partially missing instruments. We introduce an alternative instrumental variables estimator that does not require auxiliary assumptions.     

Nonlinear dynamics in CEE stock markets indices

We investigate the existence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of the returns of stock markets indices from CEE economies. We use several types of nonlinear tests. We discuss the implications of the results with respect to the efficient market hypothesis.     

Imposing local curvature in the QUAIDS

In this paper, we build on Ryan and Wales (1998), Moschini (1999), and Serletis and Shahmoradi (2007) and impose curvature conditions locally on the quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model of Banks et al. (1997), an extension of the simple AIDS model of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) that can generate quadratic Engel curves [that is, rank-three demand systems, in the terminology of Lewbel (1991)]. In doing so, we exploit the Slutsky matrix of second order derivatives of the indirect utility function.     

Government solvency and financial markets: Dynamic panel estimates for the European Monetary Union

We assess government solvency in the European Monetary Union (EMU), controlling for the interaction of fiscal policy with financial markets. We find a positive interaction, reflecting market-based pressures for fiscal improvement, and significant debt stabilization efforts, weakened in the post-EMU era.     

Integration, social distress, and policy formation

I study the integration of regions in the form of a merger of populations, which I interpret as a revision of people’s social space and their comparison set; I illustrate the way in which a merger can aggravate social distress; and I consider policy responses. Specifically, I view the merger of populations as a merger of income vectors; I measure social distress by aggregate relative deprivation; I demonstrate that a merger increases aggregate relative deprivation; and I show that a social planner is able to reverse this increase by means of least-cost, post-merger increases in individual incomes, but is unable to counter it by relying exclusively on a self-contained income redistribution that retains individual levels of wellbeing at their pre-merger levels.