Organizational Obstacles to Innovation: A Formulation of the Problem

A large corporation is a complex social system that seems to take on a life of its own quite apart from the purpose for which it is intended. When one of the purposes of the organization is innovation, the social system can produce obstacles that are not easy to overcome. In this article, Professor Volney Stefflre provides a refreshing look at the problems of keeping an organization innovative enough so that it can survive and thrive in a changing environment. Professor Stefflre's view is an unusual and creative one. It comes partly from his many years of working with a variety of manufacturers as they attempted to adapt to their changing environments through innovation. It also comes from his background in psycho-linguistics—the area, he says, where psychology and anthropology meet. It may not be surprising then that his article includes a brief look at empires and civilizations as part of the support for his thesis. This article is adapted from one of the chapters of Professor Stefflre's new book: Developing and Implementing Marketing Strategies . New York: Praeger Publishers Inc., 1985.     

Financial Pressure and Balance Sheet Adjustment by Firms*

This paper examines the financial policies and balance sheet adjustment of companies. Using a large panel of UK‐listed firms we consider how companies resolve pressures on their balance sheet, estimating models for dividends, new equity issuance and investment. The results indicate that companies resolve balance sheet pressures by each of these means. Financial policies, through dividends and new equity issuance, and real investment decisions, respond to the underlying level of debt and the borrowing cost of servicing that debt. Dividends are estimated to be slow to adjust in the short run.     

Quantifying the Risk of Deflation

We propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent. Unlike alternative measures of risk, our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent's preferences with respect to inflation. We illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the United States, Germany, and Japan for horizons of up to 2 years. The question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate. We find that, as of September 2002 when this question first arose, there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the United States and for Germany, contrary to some conjectures at the time. In contrast, there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in Japan.     

Dynamic Costs of the Draft

Abstract. We propose a dynamic general‐equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social work). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION POLICIES IN THE EMU: SPILLOVERS, ASYMMETRIES AND INSTITUTIONS

This paper studies the institutional design of the coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within a monetary union in the framework of linear quadratic differential games. A central role in the analysis plays the partitioned game approach of the endogenous coalition formation literature. The specific policy recommendations in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) context depend on the particular characteristics of the shocks and the economic structure. In the case of a common shock, fiscal coordination or full policy coordination is desirable. When anti‐symmetric shocks are considered, fiscal coordination improves the performance but full policy coordination does not produce further gains in policymakers' welfare.     

Monte Carlo methods for estimating,smoothing, and filtering one- and two-factor stochastic volatility models

One- and two-factor stochastic volatility models are assessed over three sets of stock returns data: S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq. Estimation is done by simulated maximum likelihood using techniques that are computationally efficient, robust, straightforward to implement, and easy to adapt to different models. The models are evaluated using standard, easily interpretable time-series tools. The results are broadly similar across the three data sets. The tests provide no evidence that even the simple single-factor models are unable to capture the dynamics of volatility adequately; the problem is to get the shape of the conditional returns distribution right. None of the models come close to matching the tails of this distribution. Including a second factor provides only a relatively small improvement over the single-factor models. Fitting this aspect of the data is important for option pricing and risk management.     

Are labor markets segmented in developing countries? A semiparametric approach

We test the hypothesis that observably similar workers earn higher wages in the formal sector than in the informal sector in developing nations. Using data from Argentina's household survey and various definitions of informal employment, we find that on average, formal wages are higher than informal wages. Parametric tests suggest that a formal premium remains after controlling for individual and establishment characteristics. However, this approach suffers from several econometric problems, which we address with semiparametric methods. The resulting formal premium estimates prove either small and insignificant, or negative. Neither do we find significant differences in measures of job satisfaction between the two sectors. We invoke these results to question the mainstream view that labor markets are segmented along formal/informal lines in developing nations such as Argentina.     

日本自卫队信息化建设的特点、体系结构及发展趋向

本文就日本自卫队信息化建设的主要特点、体系结构、列装情况，及发展趋向作一简要的剖析与评述。     

绵里藏针——信用证软条款浅析

信用证软条款在信用证生效的各个环节上制造障碍,使得受益人无法顺利结汇。本文分析了信用证软条款的不同类型,并在信用证风险防范方面给出了建议。外贸公司应当重视信用证的审核工作,防止软条款带来的经济损失。