企业购并行为中的税收政策效应

本主要分析所得税对企业市场购并行为的影响。国外学所分析企业购并时,通常假设市场完全竞争,企业的决策不受非市场因素的干扰。他们认为,企业购并中,购并方的收益率只受两个因素的影响,即企业已分配股息的纳税比率和资本利得税率。笔从两方面对以上模型进行了修正：一是修正了其中“债务利息可以全部税前扣除”的假设前提,二是修正了被购并方在交易中的交易条件。以上修正使模型能够更加准确地描述中国的现实经济环境,也得出了完全不同的结论。     

Sraffa's legacy

This review essay of Critical Essays on Piero Sraffa's Legacyin economics situates Sraffa's work in relation to the Marshalliantradition and neo-Walrasian general equilibrium theory, andreviews the current state of debate between adherents of thesetraditions on the role of demand, returns to scale, capitaltheory and policy analysis. Other issues considered includethe corn model, Sraffa's critique of Hayek, and the extensionof the capital theory critique to the intertemporal equilibriummodel.     

Environmental Conditions,Reservation Prices,and Time on the Market for Housing

A general analytical model to describe the impact of environmental disamenities on duration of sales is derived. A statistical technique to recover a sellers reservation price is proposed. An econometric procedure that consistently estimates market duration and a sellers reservation price is described. An application to the impact of highway noise on property values and market duration is presented. The estimation results show that, while highway noise has a significant negative impact on forming reservation prices and predicting sale prices, the noise effect on duration of sales is not statistically significant. Empirical evidence also shows a negative impact of market duration on reservation prices, which indicates an updating process for reservation prices over time.     

The Impact of Innovativeness and Development Time on New Product Performance for Small Firms

Timing is becoming a new source of competitive advantage. The business press extols the benefits of faster product development. This paper examines whether competitive advantage can be gained by reducing development time across all types of new products or whether this advantage is restricted to certain types of new products. It proposes that product innovativeness moderates the relationship between development time and initial market performance. A survey of 110 small manufacturing firms in computer related industries supports the hypothesis. The survey findings indicate that a firm must guard against over- or under-development of the new product since product innovativeness was found to influence the impact of development time on market performance. The implications for managers are: beware of bringing a new product that is too much, too early or too little, too late.     

跨市场融合性人民币产品创新研究

结合对新兴市场国家（地区）的发展路径及对目前国内金融市场所存问题的分析，本文认为，市场对四类跨市场融合性人民币产品存在强烈需求，其中，跨资本和期货市场、跨货币和资本市场两类融合性产品的发展前景较为乐观，跨货币和外；12市场融合性产品次之，跨货币和期货市场融合性产品的发展则尚有待于一些条件的成熟。国内商业银行参与跨市场融合性产品创新时应遵循审慎经营原则，近期以跨货币与外汇市场融合性人民币产品为主，长期以跨货币与期货市场融合性人民币产品为目标。从提高信贷资产流动性的迫切程度来看，中小银行可能会成为跨货币与资本市场融合性人民币产品创新的主要推动力。     

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Abstract:  This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices.     

Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyse its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behaviour of financial measures for SMEs is analysed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on panel data of over 2,000 U.S. firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out-of-sample prediction power which is almost 30 per cent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.     

The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors’ stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market

This paper uses the perfect market segmentation setting in China's stock market to compare the information content of the stock trades of domestic and foreign investors. We study 76 firms that issue both A-shares (for domestic investors) and B-shares (for foreign investors) and compare the price discovery role of the two segmented markets in China. Before Feb 19, 2001, the A-share market led the B-share market in price discovery, as the signed volume and quote revision of the A-share market had strong predictive ability for B-share quote returns, but not vice versa. After Feb 19, 2001, because some domestic investors were allowed to invest in the B-share market, we find evidence for a reverse causality from the B-share to the A-share market. Nevertheless, the [Hasbrouck (1995). One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199.] information share analysis reveals that A-shares continue to dominate the price discovery process.     

市场透明度改变影响交易者行为吗？

基于中国证券市场2003年12月8日提高市场透明度这一事件，本文对市场透明度提高对交易者行为的影响进行了研究。结果发现：市场透明度提高明显改变了交易者的交易策略，主要表现为交易者整体交易指令的激进程度降低，其中交易者减少提交市价指令，增加了撤单的频率。研究还发现，市场透明度提高导致交易者提交价格增进的限价指令的比例下降，而提交小额交易指令的比例增加，同时交易者对交易环境的改变具有学习与逐步适应的能力。     

Price-Matching Guarantees and Equilibrium Selection in a Homogenous Product Market: An Experimental Study

Price-matching guarantees have been alleged to sustain collusive prices in a homogenous product market. Theories in this literature also suggest that there exist multiple equilibria (i.e., a set of price equilibria between the competitive and the monopoly price) when all sellers adopt these guarantees in such a market. Theoretical prediction in this case fails to pin down the actual behavior of players a priori. This paper illustrates the essential role of controlled experiment in testing the collusive theory of price-matching guarantees and thereby shedding light on the embedded equilibrium selection problem. In particular, this paper studies two highly stylized market models, obtains testable predictions, and lays out the design of the controlled experiment. Results indicate that these guarantees facilitate collusion among sellers and thus solve the equilibrium selection problem considerably. I am grateful to Jim Cox, Martin Dufwenberg, Haimanti Bhattacharya, and the editor of this journal and the two referees for their suggestions. I thank seminar participants at the University of Arizona and North American Economic Science Association meeting at Tucson, 2003 for their helpful comments. A research grant from ESL, University of Arizona, for this project is gratefully acknowledged. I am solely responsible for any remaining errors and omissions.