Wealth inequality in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from household survey and rich lists’ data combined*

We study how the problem of the ‘missing rich’, the underrepresentation of the wealthiest in household surveys, affects wealth inequality estimates for the post‐socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The survey data from the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) are joined with the data from the national rich lists for Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Slovakia. Pareto distribution is fitted to the joined survey and rich lists’ data to impute the missing observations for the largest wealth values. We provide the first estimates of the top‐corrected wealth inequality for the CEE region in 2013/2014. Despite a short period of wealth accumulation during the post‐1989 market economy period, our adjustment procedure reveals that wealth inequality in the Baltic countries is comparable to that of Germany (one of the most wealth‐unequal countries in Europe), while in Poland and Hungary it has reached levels observed in France or Spain. We discuss possible explanations of these findings with reference to the speed and range of privatization processes, extent of income inequality, and the role of inheritances and wealth taxes in the region.     

An activist revival in central banking? Lessons from the history of economic thought and central bank practice

Abstract

We introduce the “minimalist–activist” spectrum as an analytical prism through which to view key aspects of central banking theory and practice. We focus on the activist end of this spectrum, concentrating on economic growth. We explore the theoretical roots of these ideas in the writings of Dennis Robertson. We illustrate central banking practice by detailing some approaches followed by central banks pursuing economic growth and development in the decades following the Second World War. History of monetary thought, monetary theory, and analysis of central bank practices blend together to illuminate key principles and practices of central banking.     

重症监护室中中央静脉导管对血液感染的影响

目的探讨与中央静脉导管相关的血液感染的风险因素,尤其是护工和抗菌浸渍因素的影响,这对有效确立预防措施至关重要。方法在两年期间,有预见性地监测重症监护室中抗菌浸渍、护工以及成年患者中中央静脉导管相关的血液感染的变量因素。结果在210例患者中,中中央静脉导管相关的血液感染的案例被确认的共计32例。只有在中央静脉导管被用于管理全肠外营养的患者中,抗菌浸渍中央静脉导管才降低了与中央静脉导管相关的血液感染风险。而没有接受全肠外营养管理的患者,其受与中央静脉导管相关的血液感染风险增加了。结论抗菌浸渍中央静脉导管在接受全肠外营养管理的患者中,其与中央静脉导管相关的血液感染的风险降低了66%。限制采用倒班护工对在使用中央静脉导管患者进行护理、使用外周静脉置入的中央静脉导管都能降低与中央静脉导管相关的血液感染的风险。     

中原经济区城市经济联系时空变化分析——基于城市流强度的视角

以中原经济区为研究区域,选取2000、2003、2006和2009年4个时间截面,采用城市流强度模型对中原经济区28个城市的城市流强度进行了测度.根据计算结果,运用Q形聚类法,将中原经济区28个城市的城市流强度划分为15种类型,同时,进一步分析了中原经济区城市流强度的时空演变规律.结果表明:①中原经济区尚处于经济发展的初级阶段,区内各部门的外向服务能力不强,整体的集聚和辐射能力较弱,空间联系较为松散;②随时间变化,城市流强度的绝对差异在增大,相对差异在减小,区内城市发展水平和整体实力相差较大;③郑州居中原经济区城市流强度高值区中心,且郑州与区内外围城市的城市流梯度差不断缩小,溢出效应开始显现;④空间格局变化较小,且基本呈现北高南低、东高西低的分布格局;⑤特殊的区位优势对区域内城市流强度的影响显著.     

国家中心城市综合评价与实证研究——以武汉市为例

基于层次分析法,从中心城市的四大功能和八大中心角度出发,构建了国家中心城市评价指标体系,对六大中心城市——武汉、杭州、青岛、成都、沈阳、南京进行了综合评价.通过计算六大中心城市的各项得分和排名,得出结论:武汉的国家中心城市指数得分最高,城市综合实力最强,具有建设国家中心城市的优势与潜力;其它5个城市的优劣势各有不同,其中杭州相对领先,成都和南京居中,青岛和沈阳相对落后.最后,根据评价结果,结合武汉自身的特点与优势,提出武汉建设国家中心城市的对策及思路.     

Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis

In this paper, we examine whether a tone shock derived from European Central Bank communication helps predict ECB monetary policy decisions. To this purpose, we first use a bag-of-words approach and several dictionaries on the ECB's Introductory Statements to derive a measure of tone. Next, we orthogonalise the tone measure on the latest data available to market participants to compute the tone shock. Finally, we relate the tone shock to future ECB monetary policy decisions. We find that the tone shock is significantly and positively related to future ECB monetary policy decisions, even when controlling for market expectations of monetary policy and the Governing Council's inter-meeting communication. Further extensions show that the predictive ability of the tone shock is robust to (i) the normalization of the tone measure, (ii) alternative market expectations of monetary policy, and (iii) the horizon of macroeconomic variables used in the Taylor-type monetary policy rule. These findings highlight an additional channel through which ECB communication improves monetary policy predictability, suggesting that the ECB may have private information that it communicates through its Introductory Statements.     

中原经济区司法协调机制建立的必要性

通过对中原经济区5个省份司法活动的调查分析,发现中原经济区内的司法合作和司法配合的状况不是很理想,中原经济区司法协调机制十分有建立的必要性。首先,统一的司法制度无法满足中原经济区发展要求。其次,建立区域司法机关不具有现实性。再次,建立司法协调机制是中原经济区的必然选择。最后,建立中原经济区司法协调机制是借鉴发达国家发展经验的必然结果。     

基于创新力场强的区域中心城市创新生态圈辐射效应研究——以长三角城市群为例

为破解区域中心城市创新生态圈创新力场强分布不均匀导致区域创新不平衡的问题，实现区域协同创新，基于断裂点模型、创新力场强模型和创新辐射力模型，对长三角城市群区域中心城市创新生态圈辐射效应进行实证研究。结果表明：长三角城市群创新力场强整体以“沪-苏-宁-合-杭-沪”为边界呈圆形网络分布，包括上海创新辐射带、苏州创新辐射带、杭州创新辐射圈、南京创新辐射带以及合肥创新辐射圈等五大核心辐射区；创新力场强分布不均匀，靠近核心辐射区的城市创新力场强密集，受到多重辐射效应，而边缘城市受到辐射效应微弱；周围城市创新要素量对创新力场强具有倍乘效应，可通过增加其创新要素量放大创新辐射效应。     

19世纪美国史视角下的奥姆斯特德及其 设计思想

立足奥姆斯特德的书信、报告等史料文件,聚焦到 奥姆斯特德与19世纪美国文明转向、文化独立及阶层政治相 关的具体事件,层层重构这些事件的风景园林学意义。再通过 分析纽约中央公园,检视奥姆斯特德价值观念的呈现。致力于 建构奥姆斯特德设计思想、价值判断及空间理念等方面内容与 19世纪美国史之间的脉络性关联,以期推动风景园林学科中 的空间理解与社会、政治之间建立互动关系。     

How Much Will It Cost to Join the Club? The Extra Costs of Approximating Lithuanian Environmental Laws with Those of the European Union

This paper presents estimates of costsassociated with approximating Lithuanianenvironmental protection legislation with thatof the European Union (EU). Lithuania is oneof twelve EU associate members in Central andEastern Europe that is currently preparing foraccession by approximating their legislationwith that of the EU. The costs of fifteen EUdirectives are considered and details are givenon four directives. Necessary investments maytotal Euro 1500 million by 2015 and the presentvalue of all annualized costs is expected to beabout Euro 2200 million. In 2015, annualized costsare estimated to be approximately Euro 500 million,but these costs are only part of the totalcosts of approximation. Non-environmentalcosts are not considered. Assuming a modestlyambitious average annual growth of GDP of 2.0%per year implies that approximation with thefifteen directives analyzed will cost roughly3.5% of GDP in 2015. This level of additional commitment to environmentalprotection is itself much higher than the 2.0%of GDP being spent on average by OECD countriesand suggests the possibility of a substantialeconomic burden on the Lithuanian economy. Public budgets and households are expected tocarry a substantial portion of this cost,because many directives are the responsibilityof national and local governments. Making theright choices that are expected to be part ofapproximation with the environmental acquis is likely to benefit from carefulcomparisons of costs and willingness to pay forthe environmental benefits of approximation.