Is China Living a Minsky Moment? Between the “Lender of Last Resort” and the Chinese Shadow Financial System

After Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, the Central Bank of China (PBOC) created a big 1.8 trillion dollars package to boost the Chinese economy. It was a necessary key measure not only to prop up the economy, but also to try to preserve the two-digit growth of the GDP that existed before the Great Recession. The financial instability of international financial circuits made necessary the involvement of the central bank. Ten years later, China’s debt explosion went up during the financial crisis, from six to twenty-eight trillion dollars between 2007 and 2016. In other words, it went up from 148 to 260 percent of GDP during the same period. The goal of this article is to analyze whether China is living a “Minsky moment” or not, and what its implications are for international financial markets.     

美国涉华诉讼对科技交流政策的影响和展望

美国司法部的“中国行动计划”实施三年以来,给中美两国正常的科技合作和学术交流带来了严重的影响和打击。近期美国一系列涉华诉讼引发了各界讨论,迫切敦促美国政府机构在保护知识安全的同时必须兼顾学术开放。美国最高科技政策决策机构决意出台实施指南,解决科技学术界的紧迫关切。中美两国领导人的线上会晤也就全球关切的议题进行交流合作,释放了积极信号,我国亦应鼓励科研人员继续进行跨国界的科学探索,努力促成和恢复中美在科技、人文等领域的正常交流合作。     

中国城市化与生态环境耦合规律与实证分析

本文在阐明城市化与生态环境交互耦合含义的基础上,利用城市化的S型生长曲线和生态环境演变的倒U型曲线,演绎出城市化与生态环境耦合的规律曲线,并以中国的实际数据为例,进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)生态环境随城市化发展呈现出着先恶化、后改善的不规则倒U型耦合规律,但该规律曲线只是它们实际耦合的一种演变趋势;(2)1985～2005年间,中国工业废水排放量与城市化水平耦合表现出先倒U型和后U型的阶段特征,而这种特征曲线正是技术进步、产业结构高级化、人们环保意识的增强以及经济增长的压力等因素综合作用的结果。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2009—2010年

本文依据中国经济增长与价格形成理论模型以及CMAFM计量模型,分析与预测2009—2010年间中国经济在积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策支持下的复苏过程。本文认为,中国需求管理应该继续采取扩张性政策取向,完成中国经济景气从萧条到繁荣的周期形态转换,并且与中国经济发展的高储蓄—高投资—高增长模式相适应,形成以促进国内投资需求为轴心的政策架构。     

走出“中国制造”的困惑

全球制造业出现了由发达国家向发展中国家转移的趋势,中国制造业可以凭借劳动力资源丰富的优势加速发展。但是目前“中国制造”是以低价格、低成本优势进入了国际市场,参与国际分工,从长远的观点看,不利于中国经济的可持续发展。因此,“中国制造”要摆脱困境,在作好委托生产的同时,要打造自己的品牌,提升“中国制造”的档次。     

Creating Opportunities for Women in the Renewable Energy Sector: Findings from India

This paper identifies opportunities and constraints that low-income women face in accessing livelihoods in the renewable-energy sector in India through qualitative and quantitative research conducted in collaboration with The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and the Self Employed Women's Association (SEWA) in 2012–13. Whereas previous research has focused on women mostly as end users of solar and biomass technologies, this research attempts also to understand women's potential as entrepreneurs, facilitators, designers, and innovators. Findings reveal that although access to technology and employment in the energy sector is limited by inadequate purchasing power and low social status, there is tremendous potential to create livelihoods for women at all levels of the energy supply chain. Broader findings indicate that women can gain optimal traction from employment in the energy sector only if there are wider socially progressive policies in place, including state intervention to create a robust social welfare infrastructure and accessible, high-quality, public services.     

中国生态农业产业竞争力的钻石模型分析

生态农业是依靠农业系统内部维护土壤肥力,促进农业稳产、持续生产的一种农业,实现有中国特色的农业可持续发展应进一步优化生态农业生产要素,创新产业经营管理体制。     

基于气候区划的中国建成区绿地率 区域差异研究

气候是影响城市绿地的基础性自然因素,定量研究气候对建成区绿地率的影响,利于合理调控城市绿地建设。以中国县级市及以上城市为样本,综合运用标准差、变异系数和锡尔系数等方法,探究1996—2015年不同气候区划建成区绿地率区域差异状况。结果表明：1)从发展水平看,不同气候区划具显著差异,热带高于温带,湿润、半湿润区高于半干旱、干旱区,其中,热带与湿润区、半湿润区城市重合度高,是气候优势区位;2)从差异度看,不同气候区划差异度具明显区别,温带差异度高于热带,干旱、半干旱区高于湿润、半湿润区;3)从差异分解看,温度带间建成区绿地率不平衡对全国总差异的影响度大于干湿区间,温度带间差异是我国总体差异的主要原因。以期为揭示气候对城市绿地建设水平的影响作用提供理论依据。     

The optimal portfolio for the two-pillar mandatory pension system: the case of Poland

In the recent decade, there has been observed across the Central and Eastern European states the regulatory trend towards the increase of the non-financial (first) pension pillar size at the expense of the financial (second) pillar. It tends to question the consequences of this shift for the future retirement benefits. Applying the portfolio approach we address this issue by running a series of simulations to find out how to allocate pension contributions between both pillars in an optimal way. Our study contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, we do not perform the assessment of the predetermined regulatory solutions, but we look for an optimal one. Moreover, we allow our optimal rule to be time-varying, if necessary, which would be a true novelty in this research area. Second, we do not base our estimates on historical trends; rather, we apply the long-term economy’s projection to account for the society’s ageing impact, which is a crucially important factor for the solvency of the pension system. Adapting some of the simulation assumptions to fit the Polish case, our results confirm that current regulations underestimate the role of the capital pillar and the optimal allocation between both pillars should be time-varying.