Local banking and local economic growth in Italy: some panel evidence

This article provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian ‘province’) in Italy. A comprehensive data set is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.     

Do stock markets discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just monitoring,or also influencing?

This paper presents evidence that bank managers adjust key strategic variables following a risk and/or valuation signal from the stock market. Banks receive a risk signal when they exhibit substantially higher (semi-)volatility compared to the best performing bank(s) with similar characteristics, and a valuation signal when they are undervalued relative to the average bank with similar characteristics. We document, using a partial adjustment model, that bank managers adjust the long-term target value of key strategic variables and the speed of adjustment towards those targets following a risk and/or negative valuation signal. We interpret this as evidence of stock market influencing. We show that our results are unlikely to be driven by indirect influencing by regulators, subordinated debtholders, retail or wholesale depositors. Finally, we show that the likelihood that banks receive a risk and/or valuation signal increases with opaqueness, managerial discretion and specialization.     

The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S.

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the United States’ bank recapitalization program, the centerpiece of the United States’ $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), on bank portfolios. Through superior empirical analysis and correct model specification, our findings overturn much of the existing literature on the effectiveness of capital injections into the banking sector in Japan and the United States. We show that the TARP program did not achieve the stated policy objective of stimulating bank lending. On the contrary, we find evidence that recipient banks grew assets significantly slower, particularly heavily risk-weighted assets such as loans. These findings are robust to various empirical specifications, including two-stage least squares estimation using instrumental variables, difference-in-difference techniques and generalized method of moments. These techniques control for pre-existing trends in loan growth while addressing potential endogeneity bias.     

Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails

This paper motivates the importance of modeling nonlinearities in measuring systemic risk. I capitalize this motivation by generalizing the CoVaR approach proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) to allow it switching between a high and a normal risk regime filtered from data.. Considering the U.S. large bank holding companies (BHCs), this paper shows that modeling regime changes in tails is capable of capturing both amplification and mean-reversion effects of an adverse shock to a bank's balance sheet on the banking system. Using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics with and without bootstrapping, I perform the significance test to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), and the stochastic dominance test to rank the identified SIFIs. The stochastic dominance test raises the concern that the CoVaR measure underestimates systemic risk contributions for SIFIs but overestimates for non-SIFIs. Finally, applying the BHCs' characteristics and housing market price to forecast the regime-switching systemic risk out-of-sample, I obtain from 4- and 8-quarter-ahead horizons a desirable countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk.     

基于SWOT分析的商业银行金融科技发展战略研究

金融科技（Fintech）以新兴技术为核心,对金融产品进行改造及创新,拓宽金融可 获得性,提高金融效率,有力地促进传统金融业的转型升级,已成为商业银行的战略重点和发 展方向。同时,商业银行发展金融科技也面临一系列劣势和困境,如缺乏高效组织架构、信息 科技系统难兼容等。本文在对相关文献回顾和评述的基础上,首先分析了商业银行发展金融科 技的背景;其次,重点运用SWOT分析法剖析商业银行发展金融科技的优势、劣势、机会和威 胁;最后,提出商业银行发展金融科技的对策建议：由内部研发、成立子公司,逐步过渡到外 部战略合作。     

Regulatory Capital Arbitrage and the Potential Competitive Impact of Basel II in the Market for Residential Mortgages

U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

Connecting National Safety Nets: The Dialectics of the Basel II Contracting Process

Basel II consists of supervisory guidelines negotiated by representatives of central banks and national regulatory commissions that were members of the Basel committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS is itself a regulatory response to globalization, which is connecting national safety nets in market-driven ways. A country’s financial safety net is a social contract established by short-lived agents for principals in long-lived economic sectors. Restraints placed on the authority of the BCBS members to contract for their principals by domestic politics explains: why Basel II authorizes individual countries to implement the agreement in markedly different ways; why US implementation of Basel II ran into so much doubt, controversy, and delay; and how the implementation debate set small and large banks and the Federal Reserve and other federal regulators against one another.

银行理财产品收益率市场化演进机制研究——基于修正Hotelling模型的理论分析与实证检验

本文利用修正的Hotelling模型对我国银行理财产品收益率的市场化演进机制进行了理论分析,并使用2005至2019年的银行理财产品历史数据进行了实证检验,得到了一系列结论。第一,收益率落后的“输家”银行下期将以更大的相对幅度提高其收益率,呈现出“输家”追赶“赢家”的锦标赛竞争机制。第二,上述竞争机制受到“输家”银行排名、不同银行之间收益率差距和监管政策的影响。“输家”银行排名越靠后、不同银行之间的收益率差距越大,那么,下期“输家”银行提高其理财产品收益率的相对幅度就越大,不同银行之间的竞争行为就越强烈;与之相对的,监管政策越严,则不同银行之间的竞争强度越弱。本文的研究结论对进一步深入理解我国存款市场化利率的形成机制、加强对商业银行的监管和引导有一定的借鉴和启示意义。     

我国房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模的相关性研究

本文首先从理论上深刻剖析了房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模相互之间的作用与传导机制,在此基础上选取2006年-2018年相关指标的年度数据,对房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模进行了图形拟合与周期性波动规律分析,分析发现二者存在极高的契合度。建立房地产泡沫的函数,构建协整方程实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的长期弹性系数为0.51,从长期来看银行信贷规模每增加1%,房地产泡沫也相应增加0.51%,进一步建立VAR模型实证发现房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模互为格兰杰因果关系,二者相互影响、相互促进。通过方差分解实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的变动具有重要的影响,另一方面,房地产泡沫是影响银行信贷规模变动最主要的因素。