追本溯源话活力--打造成功的城市商业步行街

随着城市化进程的不断推进,"商来步行街"之风席卷全国各地,文章通过对城市商业步行街中人们行为心理需求的分类剖析,探求成功的商业步行街的活力源头,提示了营造充满活力的商业步行街的具体途径.     

商业退回逆向物流网络优化模型研究

针对如何使商业退回成本最小,文中建立了一个数学模型,将商业退回逆向物流系统用一个由顾客、初始回收点和回收中心三类联结点以及它们之间的运输路线组成的网络来表示。为了验证模型的有效性,文中将模型应用于案例分析,最终根据模型求解结果为案例提供了一个具体的解决方案,对案例的求解结果进行了检验。     

World Bank lending and regulation

Does World Bank lending promote deregulation with stronger incentives and critical resources or slow the process by blunting the impact of crises and indirectly promoting state control? This paper analyzes empirical links between aid flows and regulatory burden. Econometric estimates based on panel data for 83 aid receiving countries over 5 year periods from 1970 to 2000 find that World Bank lending, while not specifically targeting high or low regulatory states, is linked to lower subsequent regulation. This link holds for multilateral donors more broadly while bilateral donor funds apparently fail to influence the level of regulation.     

Government support and bank performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis

Though previous studies suggest a state participation has a negative impact on banks, this paper highlights the potential benefits of state ownership for confidence and stability in the post-crisis period that can outweigh the inefficiencies and potential for corruption of political intervention. We find that the state guarantees are valuable during the crisis. The negative (positive) relation between state ownership and bank profitability (risk) is mitigated in the post-crisis period. Financially troubled banks that receive a transfer payment or capital injection experience improved performance during the post-bailout period.     

The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, considerable attention has been paid to the accumulation of non-performing loans in the balance sheet of European banks and to its potential negative effects on bank lending to the real economy. Using a dataset composed of bank-specific information and country aggregates, we study the impact of the stock and the flow of non-performing loans on the lending activities of a sample of 75 European banks between 2014 and 2018. In general, higher rates of non-performing loans, together with other variables, are associated with lower growth rates of performing loans. This effect persists across several econometric specifications and is more significant for those banks exhibiting lower growth rates of performing loans. Similarly, our econometric analysis suggests that banks with higher decreases in their rate of non-performing loans tend to lend more to the real economy, an effect which is particularly intense at the right tail of the distribution. The findings of our paper can be useful for policymakers when addressing the resolution of non-performing loans in banks.     

The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems

This paper examines the effects of prudential policy on loan growth in 11 Central and Eastern European banking systems, spanning the period from 2000 to 2015. Based on the measures taken by the authorities of our sample countries, we build several prudential indices. Additionally, we control for the effects of several country-specific factors and bank-specific characteristics. Finally, we test the homogeneity of these effects, accounting for cycle, ownership, and bank effects. Generally, the empirical findings reveal a negative correlation between prudential toolkits and credit growth, with a conspicuous impact for tools targeting lending activity. We see that the effects of a change in the lending framework on loan growth are heterogeneous when we account for crisis and cycle patterns. Furthermore, the interaction between ownership and crisis reveals that, in normal times, foreign banks recorded higher loan growth compared to domestic banks. The opposite is true in turbulent times. The analysis of interactions between credit-based measures and bank-specific variables show that the effects of prudential actions depend on the bank size and leverage.     

中国大中城市商业地产开发环境评价——基于时序全局主成分分析

2007年爆发的金融危机不但改变了全球经济格局,也增加了中国房地产市场的不确定性因素。随着住宅开发的竞争越来越激烈,其利润率呈现走低趋势。越来越多的房地产开发商从住宅地产转向商业地产领域,以期获得更加丰厚的回报。选取中国35个大中城市的42个变量共计近6000个数据,利用时序全局主成分分析法对后金融危机时期的这些城市商业地产开发环境进行了系统研究,建立了比较科学的评价指标体系。     

Forecasting electricity prices with expert,linear, and nonlinear models

This paper compares several models for forecasting regional hourly day-ahead electricity prices, while accounting for fundamental drivers. Forecasts of demand, in-feed from renewable energy sources, fossil fuel prices, and physical flows are all included in linear and nonlinear specifications, ranging in the class of ARFIMA-GARCH models—hence including parsimonious autoregressive specifications (known as expert-type models). The results support the adoption of a simple structure that is able to adapt to market conditions. Indeed, we include forecasted demand, wind and solar power, actual generation from hydro, biomass, and waste, weighted imports, and traditional fossil fuels. The inclusion of these exogenous regressors, in both the conditional mean and variance equations, outperforms in point and, especially, in density forecasting when the superior set of models is considered. Indeed, using the model confidence set and considering northern Italian prices, predictions indicate the strong predictive power of regressors, in particular in an expert model augmented for GARCH-type time-varying volatility. Finally, we find that using professional and more timely predictions of consumption and renewable energy sources improves the forecast accuracy of electricity prices more than using predictions publicly available to researchers.     

试论商业银行成本核算及其管理系统变革

现代商业银行经营竞争日趋激烈,产品品种层出不穷,盈利模式日新月异,迫切需要精确的成本信息来确定产品的真实盈利情况.然而,我国商业银行大都还采用传统的成本核算方法,核算出的银行产品成本是不完全的.为给银行管理决策提供更完全的相关信息,我国商业银行应使用作业成本法.就我国商业银行作业成本法的应用及须注意的问题作初浅探讨,希望对商业银行应用作业成本法有一定的参考.     

商业银行贸易融资业务的新发展——供应链融资

随着市场竞争的加剧以及产业经济的发展,“大而全”的企业体系正在崩溃,企业与企业间的竞争已逐步转向了供应链与供应链之间的竞争。在“产-供-销”供应链上的参与不同业务的企业为降低融资成本,增加销售量,提高在国际市场上的竞争能力,对供应链金融的需求也越来越迫切,我国商业银行应审时度势,加快供应链金融的业务的创新发展,构建银行、企业和商品供应链互利共存、持续发展的产业生态。