A Population Projection for Indonesia, 2010–2035

In the context of its long-term planning, from time to time the Indonesian government publishes an official population projection. The latest projection was released on 29 January 2014. In this article, I describe and evaluate the methods and assumptions used to produce the projection, and provide key results.     

Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe

This paper assesses to what extent differences in the characteristics of individuals (micro‐level perspective) and country‐specific factors (macro‐level perspective) can explain country differences with respect to material deprivation levels. Thus, our work aims to simultaneously consider the macro dimension and the predominantly individually‐oriented study field of material deprivation using multilevel techniques. We make use of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that country‐specific factors seem to be much more relevant than individual effects in explaining country differences in material deprivation. We estimate that the introduction of country‐specific factors reduces the proportion of total variance due to between‐country differences in deprivation by 72.7 percent, while individual‐level variables reduce this proportion by only 9.4 percent. We also show, through interaction variables, that the effect of sociodemographic characteristics can be shaped by institutional and structural factors, especially by the level of GDP.     

Internal Migration of Blacks in South Africa: An Application of the Roy Model

This study investigates the internal migration of black males in South Africa over the period after the formal end of Apartheid using the 1996 census data. The two issues of our primary interests are the following: (i) whether migration patterns of black individuals are consistent with the income‐maximising hypothesis as related to the destination choice; and (ii) whether the redistribution of human capital is detected in internal migration. The results from conditional logit regressions on choices among individuals in 318 districts show that individuals prefer districts with higher expected wages, conditional on other regional characteristics. In addition, there exist differing preferences on the share of population with post‐secondary education by individuals with commensurate educational attainments. Black individuals with post‐secondary education tend to migrate into areas with a higher share of population with post‐secondary education and vice versa, which confirms the divergence of human capital levels across districts.     

Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk- and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.     

高校创业教育的运行体制探讨

创业教育的运行体制在高校的创业教育中起着至关重要的作用。为了更好地开展创业教育，很多高校对创业教育的运行体制做过不同的尝试，取得了很多有价值的经验。从剖析各高校开展创业教育所采用的运行体制入手，揭示当前高校创业教育运行体制中存在的突出问题，有针对性地提出高校有效开展创业教育所应采取的运行体制构建模式。     

Price Effects on Compound Commodities

We examine the effect of simultaneous price changes on the total demand for a group of goods, which we call a compound commodity. Specifically, we consider unit and proportional cost components (e.g., taxes, transportation costs) imposed on compound commodities. If the unit cost is positive, then the proportional cost raises the relative price of the more expensive good, and thus induces substitution towards the less expensive good within this group. Then, the substitution effect of the proportional cost for a compound commodity is non‐negative if and only if the compound commodity and the other goods are, on average, not strongly substitutable.     

钢铁行业成本核算制度研究

为了解决钢铁行业普遍亏损、经营困难等问题，对当前钢铁行业成本核算面临的各种问题进行分析，相应的提出新制度实施的必要性。而后详细阐述了钢铁行业成本核算制度的基本步骤，且针对行业现有问题说明了新制度的优越性，提出可以选择性使用的作业成本法，最后阐释了新制度可能会对钢铁行业产生的影响和企业在面对新制度想要改善目前严峻形势必须用辩证的眼光看待这一现象，具体问题具体分析，对症下药才是关键。     

论海湾河口水环境治理制度建设的理论基石

通过对经济学与管理学的相关文献与理论的梳理分析,提出海湾河口水环境治理制度建设的四块理论基石:海岸带综合管理理论、湖泊流域水环境管理理论、环境产权理论、合作型环境治理理论,以期为建立海湾河口水环境治理制度体系提供理论依据和指导。     

清代诗人生卒年补考——以陆培等十位诗社成员为中心

以陆培等十位诗社成员为中心,从相关原始资料补充考订了清代诗人的生卒年及生平介绍,以期为日后编纂《全清诗》以及地方诗歌文献之类提供参考。     

Institutional failure or market failure?

We investigate the effect of the power of creditors, property rights protection, and institutional quality, on bank profits using a panel of 498 banks from 46 countries. Results show that better institutions and stronger property rights protection reduce bank profits, while stronger power of creditors drives up bank profits significantly. Results imply that better institutions and enhanced property rights protection lead to greater flow of credit allowing firms and investors to undertake more profitable ventures. By extension, stronger creditor rights erect steeper barriers to external finance for firms and investors. National indicators of economic freedoms may be more important to lowering the spread than strict creditor rights. Seemingly, credit markets fail when economic institutions fail or when governments intervene into these markets in ways that impede the safety and soundness of financial transactions and private contracting.