成交量大幅增长 市场利率走势分化 2008年2月全国银行间同业拆借与债券系统交易情况综述

2008年2月,全国银行间货币和债券市场整体运行平稳。各市场成交量大幅增长;货币市场利率走势分化,与上月末最后一个交易日（2008年1月31日）相比,Shibor的7天、2周、1个月和3个月期限品种的报价出现下降,其余期限品种的报价则出现上升。     

担保债券违约相关系数求解模式及增信有效性

在《关于有效防范企业债担保风险的意见》(银监发〔2007〕75号)出台后,债券担保主体呈现多样化,担保债券发行人和担保人违约相关系数的求解成为债券信用评级的一大难题。本文给出了担保债券违约相关系数的求解模式,并探讨担保提高发行人债信等级的有效性。     

Does the bond‐stock earnings yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?

We extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main ways. First, we explicitly relate crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a definition and a measure of robustness for these models. We apply our statistical test and measure the robustness of selected model specifications of the Price‐Earnings (P/E) ratio and Bond Stock Earning Yield Differential (BSEYD) measures. This analysis shows that the BSEYD and P/E ratios, were statistically significant robust predictors of corrections on the US equity market over the period 1964 to 2014.     

P2P网络借贷市场对资本市场的风险溢出效应

构建Copula-GARCH模型,并利用2013—2016年中国P2P网络借贷市场、股票市场和债券市场的日收益率数据,实证研究了P2P网络借贷市场对资本市场的风险溢出效应。结果显示:P2P网络借贷市场与股票市场之间存在"跷跷板"效应,与债券市场之间呈现出较弱的联动效应;P2P网络借贷市场与股票市场和债券市场的上、下尾部相关性均很弱,风险溢出效应不显著。结论表明:在确保金融系统稳定的同时,中国可以适度发展P2P网络借贷行业。     

Market Reaction to Seasoned Offerings in China

This study examines stock market reaction to the announcement of various forms of seasoned issues in China. Our empirical evidence demonstrates that market reactions differ in ways that suggest a difference between management's internal assessment and the market's assessment of the stock price. The market responds unfavourably to the announcement, notably in the case of rights issues and also with regard to open offers. Private placements experience an unfavourable pre‐announcement reaction, which contrasts with the favourable reaction after the event. Convertible bond issues generate positive excess returns consistent with the market's confidence that they can help to align management and shareholders’ interests. Further investigation shows that market reaction is related to factors specific to the issuer and issue by reference to the period immediately surrounding the issue. Specifically, ownership concentration, agency matters connected with equity offerings, investor protection connected with fund allocation and security pricing, and the influence of powerful moneyed interests together provide an instructive insight into market reaction. Institutional inefficiency pertaining to underwriting, auditing, analysts’ forecasts and credit ratings are found to have a weak association with market price, consistent with due public scepticism concerning management and their gatekeepers.     

权益法与合并报表的编制

权益法的目的在于建立投资企业长期股权投资账户与被投资单位净资产之间的比例关系。本文在分析完全权益法与不完全权益法的基础上,探讨了完全权益法与不完全权益法对合并报表编制的影响,并对我国的权益法及合并报表编制方法进行探讨。     

从成本的角度看我国上市公司的融资选择

文章对我国上市公司几种常用融资方式的理论成本进行了分析,并结合当前银行存贷款利率、股票市场的市盈率等实际情况,计算出各种常用融资方式的融资成本,说明理论上的融资顺序与企业实际采用的融资方式的不同。从我国目前的融资情况来看,应鼓励债务融资,发展可转换债券筹资方     

Stochastic duration and fast coupon bond option pricing in multi-factor models

Generalizing Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1979), this paper defines the stochastic duration of a bond in a general multi-factor diffusion model as the time to maturity of the zero-coupon bond with the same relative volatility as the bond. Important general properties of the stochastic duration measure are derived analytically, and the stochastic duration is studied in detail in various well-known models. It is also demonstrated by analytical arguments and numerical examples that the price of a European option on a coupon bond (and, hence, of a European swaption) can be approximated very accurately by a multiple of the price of a European option on a zero-coupon bond with a time to maturity equal to the stochastic duration of the coupon bond. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

保险公司债券投资信用级别限制对债券市场流动性的影响

2005年12月,保监会发布《保险机构投资者债券投资管理暂行办法》,对符合保险公司购买条件的债券信用级别作出严格限制。保险公司的债券投资对象仅限于指定的信用级别债券上,不同信用级别的债券可能因为保险公司能否参与投资导致市场流动性水平出现较大的差别。本文通过分析52只发行额度为10亿元的短期融资券市场流动性水平,认为保险公司的参与对提高债券流动性水平有一定的正面影响。     

我国地方政府债券发行长效机制的构建研究

在经历了长期的沉寂之后,我国的地方政府债券在2009年正式启动。虽然近期在二级市场上,地方政府债券遭到投资者的冷遇,但地方政府债券的持续发行有其理论与现实基础,从中国经济长远发展的角度考虑,应当构建地方政府债券发行的长效运行机制。在短期内应尽快建立地方政府债券发行的激励与约束机制以防范地方债务风险,在中长期应不断深化财政体制改革,逐步实现真正的地方政府债券制度安排。