“安倍经济学”与“李克强经济学”孰优孰劣

在外界看来,安倍经济学喜迎东风,李究竟哪一种发展模式能够真正实现经济持续健康发展的神话?然而,哪一种发展模式更加适应本国国情,真正能实现国富民强?     

#br# 不对称信息环境下的金融集权与分权*——基于中央政府视角的研究

近年来地方政府在金融管理和金融风险处置上的作用日益被强调,但中央与地方政府的金融管理权责却模糊不清。本文从中央政府的视角,从信息、道德风险以及金融外部性三方面来分析金融管理的集权与分权问题。研究发现在金融集权的模式下,由于地方政府的隐性干预,一国可能会处于高度的金融抑制状态。在金融分权情境下,地方状态信息对一项金融政策制定越重要、信息甄别成本越大,中央向地方政府授权的价值越大,同时中央对地方政府的道德风险容忍度越高。而当引入金融外部性,尤其是金融风险极易跨区域传染的特性时,有着强大的行政控制力和丰富的宏观金融工具的中央政府在协调地区间金融溢出效应,控制系统性金融风险方面相比地方政府具有比较大的优势。因而,本文认为在金融分权的情境下,政策性金融权力的下放并不是一个绝对的放与不放的问题,而是一个金融适度分权问题,即合理地将一系列的政策性金融权力配置给中央与地方政府,寻求最优金融分权结构,守住不发生区域性、系统性金融风险的底线。     

新型农村养老保障制度改革——北京模式的探索意义及其适用条件

本文以北京模式为案例,探讨了新型农村养老保障体制改革的主要特征和改革方向。北京模式明确提出政府提供基本养老保障的职责,推动建立人人共有的基本养老保障制度,使其具有研究价值和经验借鉴意义。当然,北京市的社会经济发展水平和财政能力,使其推广上应注意适用条件,特别是针对人口老龄化水平高的中西部劳动力输出大省,以及财政能力薄弱的省份,单纯依靠地方财政将面临巨大的财政压力。在分税制的情况下,需要在制定合理的财政补贴标准基础上,科学地划分中央财政和地方财政的支持比例,才能确保财政的可持续性,建立全国统一的新型农村养老保障体系。     

REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A BORROWING‐CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

We develop a two‐period, three‐class of income model where low‐income agents are borrowing constrained because of capital market imperfections, and where redistributive expenditure is financed by tax and government debt. When the degree of capital market imperfection is high, there is an ends‐against‐the‐middle equilibrium where the constrained low‐income and the unconstrained high‐income agents favour low levels of government debt and redistributive expenditure; these agents form a coalition against the middle. In this equilibrium, the levels of government debt and expenditure might be below the efficient levels, and the spread of income distribution results in a lower debt‐to‐GDP ratio.     

政府支出与私人消费的关系研究——基于跨国数据(1983-2008年)的面板协整分析

文章运用面板协整分析方法和世界上36个国家(20个发达国家和16个发展中国家)1983-2008年的面板数据进行跨国研究,通过建立变系数面板模型并结合可支配收入和宏观经济环境的影响,分析了政府支出和私人消费的关系。研究结果显示,总体上而言,样本国家的政府消费支出与私人消费成互补关系,可支配收入仍然是影响私人消费的主要因素,宏观经济环境(经济开放程度和失业率)对消费的影响在统计上很不显著。为了扩大消费,中国政府应实施积极的财政政策、扩大财政支出和提高社会保障水平以及切实解决民生基本难题。     

国有资本参股影响民营企业绿色创新的偏向性——促进实质性创新还是策略性创新？

采用沪深A股非金融类民营上市公司2009—2022年数据的分析发现,国有资本参股对民营企业绿色创新的促进作用具有明显的偏向性,即显著促进了实质性绿色创新,而对策略性绿色创新的影响不显著。机制分析表明：国有资本参股程度提高有助于民营企业获得更多的环保补助和政府补贴;环保补助（政府补贴）增加可以显著促进民营企业实质性和策略性绿色创新,且对策略性绿色创新的促进作用更大;国有资本参股对环保补助（政府补贴）促进民营企业实质性和策略性绿色创新分别具有显著的正向和负向调节作用。因此,国有资本参股具有资源获取效应和治理改善效应,可以帮助民营企业获得更多的创新资源,也能够缓解委托代理问题,进而在促进民营企业绿色创新的同时形成实质性创新偏向。进一步的异质性分析表明,国有资本参股促进民营企业绿色创新的偏向性在绿色发展意愿较弱、非重污染行业、环境规制强度较小地区的民营企业中更为明显。应在持续推进企业混合所有制改革的同时,重视并解决好企业的委托代理问题,提高民营企业的绿色发展意愿,促进民营企业绿色创新的质量提升。     

Does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure? New method,new evidence

Scholars believe that higher social expenditures are usually linked with higher government debts, whereas higher debts reduce social expenditures. However, it is reasonable to speculate that higher government debt may contribute to higher social spending, while fiscal deficits occur during a recession, which commonly creates greater demand for social expenditure. For a deeper investigation, this paper revisits the dynamic relationship between social spending and public debts in the time-frequency domain, using the novel wavelet-coherency analysis as well as the phase-difference technique to derive the co-moved and causal relationships between social spending and public debts in 13 OECD countries. The evidence identifies a dynamic relationship between variables. While higher social expenditures increase government debts, the shocks from government debts to social expenditures are conversely uncertain. We discover that higher government debt does reduce social expenditures, but it may be linked to higher social spending. The robustness of partial coherency and phase-difference discovers the role of a political party in the decision over social welfare programmes in the sample countries.     

城市拆迁进程中弱势群体的风险治理

作为城市化建设的必经过程和必然趋势,城市拆迁的主旨是持续稳步推促城市化进程的展开,改善和提高城镇居民的生活质量和经济标准。然而由于某些原因,城市拆迁非但没有达到城市化进程的初衷,反而制造了新的贫困和弱势群体。与以往研究拆迁问题的角度有别,从风险社会理论的视角对城市拆迁问题进行探讨,对现行城市拆迁决策及其相关补偿安置制度进行反思,可以重塑政府责任伦理机制与矫正制度化风险,并能探寻政府风险管理和规避的应对策略。     

Are voters rational?

We test whether a voter's decision to cast a vote depends on its probability of affecting the election outcome. Using exogenous variation arising at population cutoffs determining council sizes in Finnish municipal elections, we show that larger council size increases both pivotal probabilities and turnout. These effects are statistically significant, fairly large and robust. Finally, we use a novel instrumental variables design to show that the jumps in the pivotal probabilities are the likely candidate for explaining the increase in turnout, rather than the other observed simultaneous jumps at the council size cutoffs. Moreover, our results indicate that turnout responds only to within-party pivotal probabilities, perhaps because they are more salient to the voters than the between-party ones.     

Management accounting,performance measurement and strategy in English local authorities

This paper analyses the results of an extensive survey of UK local government which explored the relationship between strategy, management accounting practices (MAPs), and performance measurement techniques (PMTs). The research investigated a resource-based view of strategic capabilities and Porter’s strategic typologies. PMTs and MAPs were shown to be associated with strategic capabilities. Strategic typologies, however, were found to be only weakly associated with the use of PMTs and MAPs.