新型农业项目绩效审计机理及实施策略

农业是我国政府关注的重点领域。在农业现代化建设、供给侧改革和乡村振兴等多个契机的推动下,我国以农业创新、农业增效为主题,以农产品电子商务、农产品加工、农业资源循环利用等为主要形式的新型农业项目开始崭露头角。对新型农业项目绩效审计机理及实施策略进行研究,是审计职能发展、政府预算管理和项目自身管理的要求,有助于新型农业项目合理使用资金,促进行业健康发展。     

太行山文化视角下文化创意产业扶贫路径与长效机制研究

论文在太行山文化视角下,基于该地区特色物质文化、乡土村落文化、非遗文化、红色文化等资源,一方面从发挥特色资源优势、构建区域创新体系、升级传播平台等角度拓展太行山地区文化创意产业扶贫的创新路径,另一方面构建出以“宏观引导—中观支持—微观参与”为主要内容的太行山地区文化创意产业扶贫长效保障机制。从文化层面助力“防贫”,使乡村振兴取得进一步进展。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

Strategic freedom, constraint, and symmetry in one-period markets with cash and credit payment

Summary. In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these strategic market games well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on information and control they are assumed to have. As an application of these criteria, we present a complete taxonomy of the minimal one-period exchange economies with symmetric information and inside money. A natural hierarchy of market forms is observed to emerge, in which institutionally simpler markets are often found to be more suitable to fewer and less-diversified traders, while the institutionally richer markets only become functional as the size and diversity of their users gets large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, G10, G20, L10, D40, D50. Correspondence to: Eric SmithEric Smith, Martin Shubik: We are grateful to Lloyd Shapley, Duncan Foley, and Doyne Farmer for discussions in the course of this work.     

非国有经济发展对中国经济增长质量影响机理研究——来自VEC模型的新证据

转轨以来,中国非国有经济的发展促进了经济增长的数量扩张.这是因为,经济非国有化改革作为一种制度创新,是一种增量式改革.这种改革使得体制内利益在未受影响的条件下,实现了帕雷托式的增长.然而,非国有经济的发展并没有带来中国经济增长质量的同比改善.这是因为,中国民营企业发展一般都过分强调以利润为中心,忽略环境成本,并且由于融资困难等因素导致了其技术创新能力的弱化;其次,中国引进的外资不仅在技术和管理创新的扩散效应上没能达到预期效果,而且日益增加的加工贸易通过转移定价方式使中国经济不能充分享有出口增长带来的利润贡献.     

关于自然保护投入来源的探究

现阶段自然保护的目标是提高经济增长的稳定性和降低经济增长的社会成本。围绕着这一目标,解决自然保护所需投入问题的关键,是建立行之有效的投入机制。     

Can the Risks of the Kyoto Mechanisms be Reduced Through Portfolio Diversification? Evidence from the Swedish AIJ Program

Through Joint Implementationand the Clean Development Mechanism, reductionsof greenhouse gas emissions achieved abroad canbe credited to domestic firms. However, thetechnical, economic and political risksinvolved may prevent the private sector frominvesting in such projects. This paperdescribes three types of risks which emissionreduction projects are exposed to. Eleven pilotprojects carried out under the ActivitiesImplemented Jointly (AIJ) program and financedby Sweden are evaluated. Actual project costsare found to exceed projected costs in allcases. Annual emission reductions also deviatefrom their expected values and vary stronglyover time, supporting the hypothesis that suchprojects are risky business. The riskmanagement tool portfolio diversification isapplied to a sample of Swedish AIJ projects.The results indicate that diversification canreduce the risks of greenhouse gas mitigationprojects significantly. Thus, carbon funds area promising way of lowering the risks of theKyoto Mechanisms for private sector investors.     

Structure,Clearinghouses and Symmetry

We introduce and justify a taxonomy for the structure of markets and minimal institutions which appear in constructing minimally complex trading structures to perform the functions of price formation, settlement and payments. Each structure is presented as a playable strategic market game and is examined for its efficiency, the number of degrees of freedom and the symmetry properties of the structure     

会计价值机制论

本文认为,市场和企业是组织经济活动的形式,也是组织价值信息传递和价值激励的系统。市场价格机制是在长期市场供求关系作用下而形成的,而会计价值机制是随着企业的发展不断演化,在企业目标引导下组织价值信息传递和价值信息激励,以促成企业目标实现。企业替代市场或取得竞争优势,都是基于相同的原因和两种机制作用的结果,即是通过企业提供的产品或服务的成本低于市场价格而实现的。     

An efficient budget allocation policy for decentralisation of responsibility for site decontamination projects

Selection and execution of site decontamination projects is often best left to local authorities, in accordance with the subsidiarity principle, even though the budget for such projects is made available through a central authority. In this paper we suggest a practical budget allocation policy which a central authority can employ to allocate budgets to local authorities, while still optimising the central authority's environmental objective function. The procedure is fully consistent with the principle of decentralisation of responsibility for selection and execution of projects, and requires a minimum information exchange between local and central levels. Despite the information asymmetry between local and central levels, incentive compatibility problems can be (partially) prevented by choosing an appropriate evaluation mechanism. At the same time, the procedure is computationally effective and efficient, and can guarantee a fair budget allocation, making it easy to implement and politically acceptable.