On the distribution of dividend payments and the discounted penalty function in a risk model with linear dividend barrier

In the framework of classical risk theory we investigate a model that allows for dividend payments according to a time-dependent linear barrier strategy. Partial integro-differential equations for Gerber and Shiu's discounted penalty function and for the moment generating function of the discounted sum of dividend payments are derived, which generalizes several recent results. Explicit expressions for the nth moment of the discounted sum of dividend payments and for the joint Laplace transform of the time to ruin and the surplus prior to ruin are derived for exponentially distributed claim amounts.     

加征关税如何影响美国贸易逆差及全球福利——基于美元本位下两国动态一般均衡框架的分析

本文构建了一个包含美元本位特征的两国模型,在此基础上分析了美国加征关税及引发的贸易摩擦对美国贸易逆差和全球福利的影响,并详细探讨了相关传导机制。在基准模型设定下,美国单方面加征20%关税会使得美国贸易逆差占GDP比重小幅缩小约0.40个百分点,美国长期稳态GDP下降约2.50%,其他国家GDP下降约1.10%,美国居民福利上升约0.60%,其他国家居民福利下降约1.20%。美国单方面加征关税在抑制全球贸易和生产的同时,会通过更加不公平的国际贸易恶化全球福利分配。当其他国家采取报复性措施时,其他国家自身福利并不会进一步恶化,但美国福利会大幅下滑,同时美国贸易逆差相对规模变化不大。贸易摩擦博弈的"囚徒困境"特征在一定程度上能够解释贸易战的发生。削弱美元本位地位能促进国际贸易公平性的提升,进而能减弱贸易摩擦带来的负面影响、提升全球福利水平,并能有效缩窄美国贸易逆差。     

Deficit versus balanced budget financing of ICT Infrastructure and Export Quality

This paper examines whether and how provision of better quality of ICT infrastructure by the government incentivizes quality upgrading of exports of IT-enabled services of a small dependent economy that displays a diversified export basket. The central idea of the analysis is that infrastructure development has both benefits and costs, and thus may not necessarily improve quality of service exports.Method of financing the ICT infrastructure is also important. We show that if the skill-productivity augmenting effect of better quality of ICT dominates its adverse wage-cost effect, then the quality of the export of ITeS will be upgraded if the government switches from deficit financing to balanced budget financing (through an input tariff) of its expenditure on ICT development. An exogenous increase in expenditure on ICT development raises the quality of service exports regardless of how it is financed, though raises it by a larger magnitude when financed through an increase in the input tariff. Thus, when the primary objective is to incentivize upgrading of quality of exports, balanced budget financing of infrastructure development seems to be the more preferred policy.     

不完全资本市场与国际贸易赤字

本文通过带有风险资产的两期一般均衡模型研究了不完全资本市场和一国国际贸易之间的相关性。研究表明,当市场是完全的或者没有风险资产时,一国的国际贸易是平衡的,但是当资本市场不完全时会出现贸易不平衡。如果是国家间的不完全市场,由于一些国家的收入对风险资产的回报具有更强的相关性,使得国家间的贸易出现不平衡;如果资产在一个国家内是不完全的,则由于完全市场国家具有更强的国内分散收入变化风险的能力,会减少预防性储蓄,导致更大的贸易赤字。一些国际数据基本支持本文的研究结论。     

FDI竞争具有债务融资“挤出效应”吗？

研究目标：考察地方政府FDI竞争是否具有企业债务融资“挤出效应”。研究方法：选取中国上市公司微观面板数据,并运用多元线性回归方程模型。研究发现：地方政府FDI竞争对其辖区内企业的银行借款总额和长期借款具有“挤出效应”,但这种现象仅在市场化进程较低、中西部地区的企业中存在,且当面临FDI债务融资“挤出效应”时企业一般通过扩大商业信用进行替代;进一步分析还发现,政企关联作为对不完善市场机制的一种替代保护机制能够缓解FDI竞争下长期借款“挤出效应”问题;无论是从银行借款总额还是从借款期限结构来看,地方财政赤字强化了FDI竞争下债务融资的“挤出效应”。研究创新：从企业债务融资微观视角揭示了地方FDI竞争对投资“挤出效应”的作用机理,突破了现有“宏中观层面”研究视角与证据。研究价值：填补了宏中观层面投资“挤出效应”的微观形成机理,并对纠偏地方FDI恶性竞争行为具有重要政策启示。     

The surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a correlated risk process

This paper presents an explicit characterization for the joint probability density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a general risk process, which includes the Sparre-Andersen risk model with phase-type inter-claim times and claim sizes. The model can also accommodate a Markovian arrival process which enables claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. The marginal density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin is specifically considered. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of this result.     

INDEPENDENT FISCAL AGENCIES

Abstract.  There has been a considerable literature regarding the incentives of policymakers as a prime reason for persistent fiscal deficits and a variety of fiscal rules have been proposed as a remedy. However, the often inadequate flexibility of rules and the success of policy delegation in the monetary realm have motivated a small but growing number of studies that suggest delegating some aspects of fiscal policy to what will here be called 'independent fiscal agencies'. This paper surveys the related literature with a focus on three aspects: the motivation for the establishment of such agencies; their potential design; and the experience with these types of institutions.     

论日本与中国台湾地区的经贸关系及其特征

日本与中国台湾地区经济关系发展紧密。2003年,日本取代美国成为台湾地区第二大贸易伙伴。长期以来,日本是台湾地区最重要的进口市场,具有重要影响力。截至2006年,日本是台湾地区的第一大投资国、第四大出口目的地和第八大进口来源地。目前,台湾地区对日贸易出现严重赤字,双方存在出口商品的结构差的问题。日本通过对台投资,主导双方经贸关系。同时,近年来日台间的经济行为的政治化不可忽视。双方经贸关系仍有很大的空间,但基于一些主客观因素的制约,双方的经贸关系发展将会有一定限度。     

浅析吉林省逆支逆差差距的来源及影响因素

随着全球经济一体化进程的加速和国际金融业务的日益增多，银行结售汇、跨境收支和进出口数据已逐渐成为衡量和分析一国涉外经济发展的重要统计指标。统计范围、统计环节、统计时间的不同以及经济活动中复杂多变的各种因素，导致三者始终存在一定差距。本文以吉林省涉外经济发展为研究背景，通过理论与实证分析探讨了吉林省对外贸易中逆支逆差差距的主要来源以及影响其变动的主要因素。