我国国债发行规模影响因素的VAR模型分析

基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、等计量经济分析方法,对1981-2007年影响我国国债发行规模(NDS)的因素进行实证分析,说明了财政赤字规模(FD)和信贷规模(LS)的变化是影响国债发行规模变化的重要因素,两者对国债发行都产生正面效应,而且后者的作用更为显著,但两者对国债发行规模变化的影响都会随着时间延长而逐渐衰减。     

A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings

The budget deficit bias is modeled as the result of a domestic common pool problem and of an international externality. Deficits can be used to finance both unproductive and productive public spending. An optimally set supranational deficit ceiling is examined and welfare is compared to the unconstrained outcome and to the case of nationally set deficit ceilings. The supranational deficit ceiling is found to be welfare improving relative to similar national arrangements, but does not fully eliminate the deficit bias unless combined with a domestic fiscal institution allowing for precommitment to productive public spending.     

不完全资本市场与国际贸易赤字

本文通过带有风险资产的两期一般均衡模型研究了不完全资本市场和一国国际贸易之间的相关性。研究表明,当市场是完全的或者没有风险资产时,一国的国际贸易是平衡的,但是当资本市场不完全时会出现贸易不平衡。如果是国家间的不完全市场,由于一些国家的收入对风险资产的回报具有更强的相关性,使得国家间的贸易出现不平衡;如果资产在一个国家内是不完全的,则由于完全市场国家具有更强的国内分散收入变化风险的能力,会减少预防性储蓄,导致更大的贸易赤字。一些国际数据基本支持本文的研究结论。     

When do more selfish politicians manipulate less,not more?

We model the political manipulation of deficits in a political budget cycle model. Assuming that a share of voters suffers from debt illusion the incumbent can increase her re-election chances by expanding government spending. However, the optimal manipulation may exceed the amount necessary to maximize re-election chances (over-manipulation) if the deficit is not very costly (low repayment obligation). Then, more selfish politicians (higher ego rents and, therefore, increased re-election motivation) reduce the over-manipulation. Conversely, “excessive” spending may wrongly be interpreted as opportunistic government manipulation. Theoretical results are supported empirically, with very robust evidence in a sample of 87 democracies.     

中国周期性赤字和结构性赤字的估算

本文在分析比较了消除趋势法和潜在产出法的基础上,估算出我国改革开放以来的周期性赤字和结构性赤字,并依据估算结果对改革开放以来我国财政政策自动稳定功能和财政态势作简要分析.分析表明:(1)我国财政政策的自动稳定功能较弱,现实财政赤字变化主要取决于结构性赤字变化;(2)改革开放以来,我国财政态势经历了三个阶段,即1979-1981年的强紧缩阶段、1982-1997年的弱扩张阶段和1998年以来的强扩张阶段,但最近三年的积极财政政策的扩张力度已有所减弱.     

美国巨额贸易逆差能维持吗

20世纪90年代以来,美国经常项目赤字不断膨胀,而美国出现的私人投资、消费高潮与高额财政赤字是其产生的主要原因。通过对基本因素与短期因素的考察,综合分析美国经济状况以及美元地位等因素后,得出的结论是近期美国经常项目赤字将保持增加趋势。     

货币、国债与赤字

本文介绍了货币非中性功能的论证、现行宏观经济学的缺陷、国债的性质和发行依据,以及利用国际铸币税的条件等,指出科学的货币政策应有信用调节和流动性调节两方面内容,并阐述了运用财政赤字调节信用的原理和发行国债替代央行票据的必要性。     

防控“新冠肺炎”疫情的财税政策研究

突如其来的“新冠肺炎”疫情对我国宏观经济的平稳运行特别是对中小企业的经营以及就业都会产生较大的影响。在这场防控疫情的斗争中,财政税收政策将发挥重要的作用,但无论是减税还是增支都将会加大财政的赤字率。在2020年这个特殊时期,国家可以考虑突破3%的财政赤字率,但从长期来看,未来也不应该搞结构性赤字,因为这将导致巨大的政府债务。为了应对疫情,国家应当在加大宏观政策调节的力度、加大对公共卫生领域的投入、缓解企业经营困难以及实施好就业优先政策方面出台相应的财税政策。     

The surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a correlated risk process

This paper presents an explicit characterization for the joint probability density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a general risk process, which includes the Sparre-Andersen risk model with phase-type inter-claim times and claim sizes. The model can also accommodate a Markovian arrival process which enables claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. The marginal density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin is specifically considered. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of this result.