全球经济失衡态势下的东亚地区资本流动

在全球经济失衡背景下,东亚地区的资本流动呈现出与以往完全不同的特征,一方面是私人资本不断流入东亚地区且结构均衡,另一方面是大量的资本又从官方储备以购买美国国债的渠道流出东亚地区。今后东亚地区的这种资本流动将受到官方外汇储备变动、美国利率的变化、美元贬值、东亚汇率及其制度的调整等因素的影响。     

US fiscal policy in a (brief?) era of surpluses

This paper has several objectives. First, it reviews the recent improvement in the US fiscal picture and discusses the sources of this trend. It then considers the implications for the future, taking into account the past performance of budget forecasts as well as the changing composition of the federal budget. Next, it provides some estimates of the long-term fiscal imbalance still faced by the US. Finally, it briefly discusses the various policy options available to address this imbalance, and suggests how the budget measurement and forecasting procedures should be changed to accommodate the current budget situation, in which the long-term problems are not adequately conveyed by short-term measures.     

欧中贸易逆差中的FDI因素：是否存在逆差转移和贸易替代？

近年来,欧中贸易逆差问题凸显,贸易摩擦加剧。基于自由资本模型,文章从理论和实证视角分析了欧盟、东亚对华投资对中欧贸易的影响机制,重点讨论欧中贸易逆差是否是东亚对欧盟贸易顺差转移和欧盟对华FDI贸易替代的结果。分析表明,欧中贸易逆差中存在FDI引致的逆差转移和贸易替代效应,且欧盟对华投资的贸易替代效应比东亚对华投资的贸易顺差转移效应更明显。在此基础上为进一步合理利用外资、协调吸引外资与贸易关系提出了相关政策建议。     

现阶段我国合理赤字率的分析——基于债务风险的分析

从债务风险角度判断中国合理的财政赤字率的关键是看经济增长速度是否大于真实利率。根据索罗-斯旺模型,中国未来可以实现经济的较快增长,同时利率保持较低水平。中国1%~2%的基本赤字率是合理的。     

人民币升值能否减少美中贸易逆差

美中持续的贸易逆差使人民币遭受了巨大的升值压力。1985年至2009年月度数据的计量结果表明,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,但2005年7月汇改之后两者之间的协整关系开始出现,格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,中美贸易差额会引起人民币兑美元汇率的变化,但人民币汇率的变化却不会引起中美贸易差额的变化,因此人民币汇率仍然并非导致中美贸易差额的真正原因。除此之外,对美中商品分类贸易顺差和逆差的进一步分析显示,造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产业上所发挥的比较优势,而美国在土地密集型等产业上的顺差则表明美国可以通过发挥其在土地及高新技术等产业上的比较优势来缩减美中贸易逆差。     

当前美国经济综合风险分析

当前,美国经济正面临三大风险的威胁,这三大风险分别是巨额的"双赤字"及持续增长的债务、能源价格的大幅波动、愈演愈烈的次级债务危机。这些风险将会给美国经济带来很大的负面影响。更为严重的是,这三大风险相互交织在一起,相互作用、相互加强,将对美国经济造成系统性的冲击。2008年美国经济很可能出现相当程度的经济衰退,较长时间的调整是不可避免的。     

全球经济失衡与美国服务生产的贸易效应

本文从美国服务生产的贸易效应视角,探讨全球经济失衡中的逆差形成原因。以美国生产结构的变化为切入点,通过构建服务与商品两部门理论模型、统计分析与回归检验,讨论美国服务生产的贸易效应及其与收支失衡的关系。理论研究与模型分析证明,服务生产的非贸易品属性,使得美国经济在偏向于服务生产的产业结构调整中,形成了逆贸易倾向的增长方式。根据统计数据所做的实证分析显示,美国产业划分成生产与服务两部门时,在生产上存在着与理论分析相一致的逆贸易效应。在商品消费上,美国存在着商品边际进口倾向和商品进口需求收入弹性大于1的顺贸易效应。这两种相反的力量,会使出口增长速度低于进口增长速度,形成逆差。回归方程的计量检验发现,美国服务生产与美国商品贸易逆差之间存在因果关系,服务增长速度超过商品增长幅度时,商品贸易逆差增加。     

养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理,本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,并在不同口径和方法下,对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算,分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明,尽管在不同评估目的下,养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法,选择不同的精算假设,会得出有差异的评估结果,但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下,我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势,如果不改革现行制度,养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。     

Testing EU fiscal surveillance: how sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?

Real‐time estimates of potential output are used for the calculation of the cyclically adjusted budget balance, one of the main indicators in the assessment of the fiscal performance of EU member states. The estimation of potential output involves a decomposition of actual output into a cyclical and a structural component based on arbitrary assumptions about the statistical properties of the two unobserved components. With a very high degree of smoothing, variations in GDP are mostly taken to be temporary, as are the ensuing changes in the budget deficit. Conversely, with a low degree of smoothing, variations in GDP are mostly taken to be permanent, leading to different policy conclusions. Our paper examines whether and how different potential output estimates would have supported different decisions in the EU budgetary surveillance in terms of both timing and substance. The results show that only a very high degree of smoothing of potential output would significantly reduce the reliability of the surveillance indicators. We conclude that a higher degree of smoothing compared with current practice would not be harmful for EU fiscal surveillance, while it could contribute to more cautious policies by signalling larger and longer periods of economic ‘good times’.     

Debt,inflation and central bank independence

Increasing the independence of a central bank from political influence, although ex-ante socially beneficial and initially successful in reducing inflation, would ultimately fail to lower inflation permanently. The smaller anticipated policy distortions implemented by a more independent central bank would induce the fiscal authority to decrease current distortions by increasing the deficit. Over time, inflation would increase to accommodate a higher public debt. By contrast, imposing a strict inflation target would lower inflation permanently and insulate the primary deficit from political distortions.