Monetary Rules and Deficit Shocks

Modern theory on interest rate rules is based on the representative agent framework with infinite-horizon consumers, thereby ignoring redistributions of the fiscal burden across generations due to deficit shocks. We show how the ‘Taylor principle’ relies on this restrictive assumption. In a dynamic New Keynesian general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, the existence of a unique stable rational expectations equilibrium may also occur under a passive monetary policy. However, active monetary policy is still required to stabilize the economy in response to fiscal shocks. Thanks are due to an anonymous referee, Andrea Costa, Jordi Galí and Giancarlo Marini for very useful comments and discussions. Financial support from CNR and the FIRB project is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

财政赤字货币化与美国金融危机的政治经济学分析

受由新冠疫情引发的经济衰退影响,美国启动了以增发国债和超级量化宽松为基础的数轮纾困政策,以央行购买国债推动经济复苏的财政赤字货币化政策自2008年后再一次引起了全球的注意.本文以美国为刺激经济复苏施行的财政政策和货币政策为出发点,从经济基础、理论基础、制度演变、财政赤字和国债规模变化等角度分析了财政赤字货币化的形成原因...     

国债与宏观经济的动态分析

本文在总结国内外有关文献的基础上,构建了国债与利率、通货膨胀的动态稳定性分析理论框架,并利用月度VAR模型检验我国国债余额与短期利率、通货膨胀的关系,发现国债虽对实际利率和通货膨胀有一定作用,但影响小得可以忽略不计,说明改革开放以来的中国财政总体是稳定的,最后是简短的结论和政策建议。     

量化宽松、财政赤字与美元资产安全

次贷危机爆发以来,美国采取了一系列货币和财政政策以拯救深陷泥潭的本国经济。美联储运用非常规政策工具向金融体系注入大量流动性资产,美联邦政府也大幅度提高了财政支出,使得财政赤字愈加恶化。在此背景下,美元资产的安全性成为投资者关注的焦点。本文分别从货币政策效果、财政赤字的可持续性以及投资主体等方面考察了美元资产的安全性,分析了美国宏观经济政策的实际作用,并从投资主体结构探讨了美国联邦政府的经济取向,最后以所涉及资产的市场表现回应美元资产安全问题。笔者认为,与其它货币资产相比,持有美元资产并不会承担额外的币种风险。     

China＇s Agricultural Trade Deficit Falls 67.2% in Jan-May

China＇s trade deficit in agricultural products dropped to US$ 490 million in the first five months, down 67.2% from the same period last year as export growth ＇outpaced imports, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture.     

The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.     

Comparison of therapy augmentation and deviation rates from the recommended once-daily dosing regimen between LDX and commonly prescribed long-acting stimulants for the treatment of ADHD in youth and adults

Abstract

Objective:

To compare therapy augmentation and deviation rates from the recommended once-daily dosing regimen in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) patients initiated on lisdexamfetamine (LDX) vs other once-daily Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved stimulants.

Methods:

ADHD patients initiated on a long-acting ADHD stimulant medication (index medication) in/after 2007 were selected from a large US administrative claims database. Patients were required to be persistent for ≥90 days and continuously enrolled in their healthcare plan for ≥12 months following treatment initiation date. Based on age and previous treatment status, patients were classified into treatment-naïve children and adolescents (6–17 years old), previously treated children and adolescents, treatment-naïve adults (≥18 years old), and previously treated adults. Furthermore, patients were classified into four mutually exclusive treatment groups, based on index medication: lisdexamfetamine (LDX), osmotic release methylphenidate hydrochloride long-acting (OROS MPH), other methylphenidate/dexmethylphenidate long-acting (MPH LA), and amphetamine/dextroamphetamine long-acting (AMPH LA). The average daily consumption was measured as the quantity of index medication supplied in the 12-month study period divided by the total number of days of supply. Therapy augmentation was defined as the use of another ADHD medication concomitantly with the index medication for ≥28 consecutive days. Therapy augmentation and deviation rates from the recommended once-daily dosing regimen were compared between treatment groups using multivariate logistic regression models.

Results:

Compared to the other treatment groups, LDX patients were less likely to augment with another ADHD medication (range odds ratios [OR]; 1.28–3.30) and to deviate from the recommended once-daily dosing regimen (range OR; 1.73–4.55), except for previously treated adult patients, where therapy augmentation differences were not statistically significant when compared to OROS MPH and MPH LA patients.

Limitations:

This study did not control for ADHD severity.

Conclusion:

Overall, compared to LDX-treated patients, patients initiated on other ADHD medications were equally or more likely to have a therapy augmentation and more likely to deviate from the recommended once-daily dosing regimen.     

后危机时代中国经济刺激政策的退出与经济发展方式转变

经济刺激政策的退出问题已引起世界各国决策者的重视。本文从经济刺激政策带来的财政负担、是否应退出的判断标准等进行了研究,并提出中国经济刺激政策不适合迅速发出退出信号,当前工作重点应是转变经济发展方式、调整经济结构、提高经济增长效率、保证经济增长的可持续性。