The History of the Dirichlet and Liouville Distributions

The Dirichlet distributions have long been the subject of intense scrutiny in statistics and probability. Despite the enormous interest in, and wide-ranging applications of, these distributions, little appears to be known about their history. In this article we review the development of the Dirichlet distributions and their companions, the Liouville distributions. After reviewing some integral formulas of Dirichlet and Liouville, we survey the theory and applications of these distributions in statistics.     

日本规制改革最新进展评析——基于PMR综合指数的观察

日本自20世纪80年代末起展开了规制改革,至今仍在不断推进之中。为了跟踪并考察规制改革绩效,从1998年开始,OECD建立起了PMR综合指标评价体系,以评估各国的规制改革状况。利用OECD(经合组织)的PMR指数观察日本规制改革的最新进展,结果发现:日本的规制改革已初见成效,但是改革的速度在放慢,其路径依赖和选择性改革的特征比较明显。     

资源型城市产业发展的路径依赖与产业转型研究——以唐山为例

实施经济转型是资源型城市实现可持续发展的必然选择。本文以唐山市为例,研究了资源型城市经济发展中会出现的各种问题,重点阐述了路径依赖的问题,并对资源型城市的经济转型路径进行了探讨。     

Law of large numbers and large deviations for dependent risks

We analyse the mathematical structure of models for large risk portfolios, especially for credit risk models. These risk portfolios are modelled using a multivariate mixture model for the dependence structure between the risks. The dependence structures are characterized by latent variables Θ, which play the role of systematic risks. We show that, depending on the choice of the distribution of Θ, there are different asymptotic behaviours for the aggregated risk portfolio, namely law of large numbers/central limit theorem behaviour and large deviation behaviour.     

Marginal consistent dependence modelling using weak subordination for Brownian motions

We present an approach for modelling dependencies in exponential Lévy market models with arbitrary margins originated from time changed Brownian motions. Using weak subordination of Buchmann et al. [Bernoulli, 2017], we face a new layer of dependencies, superior to traditional approaches based on pathwise subordination, since weakly subordinated processes are not required to have independent components considering multivariate stochastic time changes. We apply a subordinator being able to incorporate any joint or idiosyncratic information arrivals. We emphasize multivariate variance gamma and normal inverse Gaussian processes and state explicit formulae for the Lévy characteristics. Using maximum likelihood, we estimate multivariate variance gamma models on various market data and show that these models are highly preferable to traditional approaches. Consistent values of basket-options under given marginal pricing models are achieved using the Esscher transform, generating a non-flat implied correlation surface.     

Bivariate Survival Models for Coupled Lives

This article presents alternative models for modeling the dependence of the time of deaths of coupled lives and applies these to a data set from a life annuity portfolio. The data indicates a very high positive correlation in the time of deaths between coupled lives. The analysis concludes that a mixed frailty copula model with Gompertz marginals fits the data very well. Another model that fits the data well is based on a generalized Frank copula.     

Covalence and ionic bonding in business-to-business relationships: Insights from chemistry

The paper examines business-to-business (B2B) relationships using the framework of the covalence-ionic bonding theory in chemistry as an analogy to help make soft phenomena and relationships in B2B marketing more understandable to engineers and scientists in organizations and to managers with scientific and technical backgrounds. In the tradition of cross-fertilization of various scientific fields, the authors propose that the covalence-ionic bonding theory may provide insights in determining the factors that contribute to the emergence of bilateral, unilateral, and market relationships. This study compares and contrasts interparticle bonding with ways of managing B2B relationships. Beyond sheer analogy of the two phenomena, an explanation of B2B relationships and decision-making mechanisms is proposed. In adapting this concept theoretically, the meaning of the original parameters in physical science is assigned a new meaning in the marketing context. Furthermore, the paper extends conceptually the predictive capabilities of chemistry theories to relational behaviors in marketing. Drawing from a resource-based view of the firm, complementarity of resources and dependence levels are postulated to have critical roles in business bonding. Appropriate propositions are advanced, along with implications for managers and researchers.     

金融发展的路径依赖与利率市场化

我国金融改革虽然取得了一定的成绩,但仍未突破以银行为主导的金融发展路径,存贷款利差扩大成为利率市场化的阻碍因素。本文运用金融发展的路径依赖理论对此进行了分析,指出在实行赶超型金融发展战略中,为不被旧的路径锁定,使利率市场化顺利进行,减少金融改革中银行业的风险,必须在既有路径中边发展边修正改造,变银行主导型为资本市场主导型金融体系,促使政府主导的供给型金融向市场主导的需求尾随型金融转变。