Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany

The success of the flat rate income tax in eastern Europe suggests that this concept could also be a model for countries of western Europe. The present paper uses a simulation model to analyze the effects of revenue neutral flat rate tax reforms on equity and efficiency for the case of Germany. We find that a flat rate tax with a low tax rate and a low basic allowance yields positive static welfare effects amounting to approximately 1.8% of income tax revenue but increases income inequality. The increase in income inequality can be avoided by combining a higher tax rate with a higher basic allowance. But in this case, the efficiency gains vanish. We conclude that due to their limited efficiency effects and their problematic distributional impact, flat tax reforms are unlikely to spill over to the grown-up democracies of western Europe.      

Mean squared error efficient estimators of the variance components

Summary Pseudo Bayesian estimators for the variance components based on Jeffrey’s Rule are derived for the mixed balanced incomplete block design and are compared with the usual analysis of variance estimators in terms of mean squared error (MSE) efficiency. Numerical results show that Pseudo-Bayesian estimators are more efficient in numerical results.     

A close eye on the invisible hand

The paper shows how, and under what minimal information supply conditions, a market finds its competitive equilibrium price and thus solves the so-called tatonnement process, without sellers and buyers knowing the equilibrium price in advance. The information premises must be understood as a basic first approach, and do not necessarily mimic the real market process. Demonstration of a discovery process under these information handling conditions is an important finding for an evolutionary market theory. Additional information-processing elements should augment the efficiency of the discovery process. The results of the simulated market process set out above raise new questions. The role of institutional elements (such as the relevance of demand flexibility or “certainty” of knowledge in the learning process, etc.) is discussed further outside the context of the simulation model, providing new insight into the market process.     

基于金融形势指数对我国货币政策效果非线性的实证研究

本文基于总需求方程缩减式构建包含利率、汇率、资产价格以及货币供给因素具有动态权重的金融形势指数FCI,将其作为信息变量纳入到线性和非线性泰勒规则中进行实证分析,结果表明拓展的前瞻性泰勒规则更能描述我国利率行为,利率能很好的反应金融形势而对产出和通胀反应不足。以通货膨胀率为转换变量对我国货币政策效果进行检验和估计表明泰勒规则是非线性的,存在LSR1模型的非线性形式,利率对通胀的反应是非对称的。对非线性进行拓展性研究表明当通胀达到一定程度时,利率和FCI指数才具有稳定关系。     

Game-Theoretic Coordination Mechanisms in Distribution Channels: Integration and Extensions for Models Without Competition

A significant game-theoretic literature on the coordination of distribution channels has developed over the past three decades. We provide an extensive analysis of an important subset of this literature, channels without competition. We review four major models that build on the initial work of Jeuland and Shugan (1983) – who developed a quantity-discount schedule that induces channel members to set price and non-price, marketing-mix variables (MM-variables) at channel-coordinating levels. Moorthy (1987) criticized their schedule's complexity, arguing for a simpler wholesale contract that induces coordination by avoiding double marginalization.     

Friends,family, or fools: Entrepreneur experience and its implications for equity distribution and resource mobilization

Who helps entrepreneurs raise the resources they need and how much equity does an entrepreneur distribute in return? We use a sample of 611 entrepreneurs in the U.S. to examine why some entrepreneurs are more likely than others to distribute ownership selectively to helpers. We find that entrepreneurs with specific industry experience and start-up experience are able to provide ownership more selectively and raise more resources from their helpers. We refine the categorization of social ties further to make a distinction between professional and familial ties to show that the ownership distribution and types of resource contributions vary by the mix of ties in the entrepreneur's helper network. Our findings have implications for theories of resource assembly, social structure and entrepreneurship, and organization design.     

流通业发展对农村消费影响的动态演化

本文根据我国1978-2010年的时间序列数据,采用变参数状态空间模型实证分析我国农村流通总量规模、农村集贸市场和流通环境对农村消费的动态影响。研究结果表明,流通业对农村消费的影响有显著的时变性。首先,农村流通总量的单位增长幅度引起的农村消费增长幅度为正向且逐年上升,但是由于我国农村流通业发展缓慢,年平均增长幅度小,使得流通业总量对农村消费增长的贡献率并没有随弹性系数的上升而大幅增加,贡献率在大部分年份中变化不大。其次,农村集贸市场在第一阶段(1978-1995年)对农村消费支出扮演着非常重要的角色;在第二阶段(1996-2010年)随着农民收入的提高和农村流通环境的改善,农村集贸市场对农民消费的影响在逐步减弱。第三,较差的流通环境增加了农民消费的支出成本和降低了消费的预期,对农民消费产生挤出效应;较好的流通环境减少了消费支出的成本和提高了消费的预期,对农民消费产生挤入效应。     

The Effect of China＇s Individual Income Tax on Income Distribution： Based on Different Perspectives and Data from Different Sources

本文以税前后收入份额差距、平均税率作为指标,分别从纳税人与收入的角度对2000—2009年间我国个人所得税的再分配效应与累进性进行了考察。基于公开统计数据的计算表明：就纳税人角度而言,个人所得税在收入分配方面发挥了明显的正效应,而且还呈现出不断加强的累进性。基于学者王小鲁测算的数据所进行的计算则表明：个人所得税的再分配效应与累进性相对较弱,且从收入角度来看,个人所得税反而表现出累退性。有关结论的差异提示,改善征管与统计状况是转向分类综合模式个税,加强个税再分配功能的必要条件。     

有限理性、资产价格波动与泰勒规则

针对泰勒规则所存在的多重共线性、潜在产出无法精确计量和忽视资产价格等问题,本文基于有限理性假设和纳入货币供给因素对泰勒规则进行了修正。利用修正后的泰勒规则对我国经济数据进行实证研究发现。我国存在相对稳定的利率规则,并且这种利率规则在高通胀和低通胀阶段的形式有一定区别。在将货币因素纳入泰勒规则后,发现我国的利率规则并没有明显的变化,但是中央银行在操作利率时还是应高度关注货币供应量和信贷总量．以防止资产价格的大起大落。     

现代主流经济学的制度转向及其制度不及——兼论新制度主义的分析思维及其范式缺陷

新古典经济学是研究既定制度下个体理性行为的学说,而社会制度的确立原则不同于属于个体的行为原则,因为社会制度涉及到众多社会性因素。不幸的是,流行的新制度主义恰恰舍弃了包括伦理、历史和权力等社会性因素,而试图把制度分析纳入新古典经济学框架,它或者基于博弈均衡来分析和解释那些正式规则,或者基于理性建模的互动行为分析来构设社会制度。正是基于这种抽象思维,新制度主义必然不能真正剖析制度的产生和演化,舍弃权力结构的博弈均衡所构设的社会制度。