Optimal investment decisions when time-horizon is uncertain

Many investors do not know with certainty when their portfolio will be liquidated. Should their portfolio selection be influenced by the uncertainty of exit time? In order to answer this question, we consider a suitable extension of the familiar optimal investment problem of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1971. Optimal consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. Journal of Economic Theory 3, 373–413], where we allow the conditional distribution function of an agent’s time-horizon to be stochastic and correlated to returns on risky securities. In contrast to existing literature, which has focused on an independent time-horizon, we show that the portfolio decision is affected.     

Noisy signaling in discrete time

This paper characterizes the equilibrium set of a dynamic noisy-signaling model in discrete time. A seller privately knows the quality of her asset. She can exert a costly effort to generate stochastic returns. Buyers stochastically arrive over time and, after observing the history of returns, they make price offers. In our model, the equilibrium behavior of the buyers is discontinuous: they only make acceptable (high) offers if the posterior about the quality is above a given threshold. As a result, the recursive nature of the model replicates the discontinuity, giving the equilibrium continuation payoff a complex self-replicating structure that may take the form of a devil’s staircase.     

Good signals gone bad: Dynamic signalling with switched effort levels

This paper examines signalling when the sender exerts effort and receives benefits over time. Receivers only observe a noisy public signal about the effort, which has no intrinsic value.The modelling of signalling in a dynamic context gives rise to novel equilibrium outcomes. In some equilibria, a sender with a higher cost of effort exerts strictly more effort than his low-cost counterpart. The low-cost type can compensate later for initial low effort, but this is not worthwhile for a high-cost type. The interpretation of a given signal switches endogenously over time, depending on which type the receivers expect to send it.     

Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran (2015) our study innovates in considering potential endogeneity issues and cross-sectional dependence. We control for both global risk appetite and monetary policy stance, as well as country risk ratings. The results show that common factors are the main drivers of solvency risk for our set of countries. Specially relevant, we find that macroeconomic determinants are not significant predictors of long-term sovereign spreads.     

跨界搜寻的创新驱动力：一个有调节的中介模型

以来自4个省份的357家企业为研究对象,以动态能力理论为基础,探讨跨界搜寻对技术创新的影响,以及动态能力和技术动荡在其中的中介与调节作用。结果发现：跨界搜寻的两种类型搜寻（技术知识和市场知识）对组织技术创新具有显著正向影响。同时,动态能力中介两类跨界搜寻和技术创新之间的正向关系,在技术知识跨界搜寻与技术创新之间发挥完全中介作用,在市场知识跨界搜寻与技术创新之间发挥部分中介作用。此外,组织外部较高的技术动荡水平不仅会加强动态能力对技术创新的正向影响,还会强化动态能力在两种类型搜寻与技术创新之间的中介效应。     

农村金融发展与农村经济增长——一个动态演化分析视角

农村金融发展对于农村经济增长具有重要的推动作用.运用1978-2010年的相关数据和时变参数模型估计方法,就我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的动态关系进行探寻.首先,协整检验与误差修正模型的估计结果显示:无论是长期还是短期,农村金融发展规模对于农村经济增长具有正向促进作用,而农村金融中介效率却对农村经济增长起到了负向抑制作用.时变参数模型的估计结果则进一步发现:农村金融发展规模对农村经济增长的促进作用在整体上呈现弱化趋势,当前的正向作用机制比较微弱;而农村金融中介效率对农村经济增长的抑制作用经历了一个先减弱后增强的“倒V”型变化过程.     

动态效率、生产性公共支出与结构效应

利用1979-2008年三次产业的数据和误差修正模型,本文估算了我国政府生产性公共支出与经济动态无效的长期关系,考察了政府生产性公共支出对三次产业的生产要素积累所产生的影响。研究发现:在结构效应为正的条件下,当期公共支出的增加能够影响资本和劳动在三次产业之间,以及三次产业内部不同行业之间的要素积累方式,起到改善经济结构、优化资源配置的作用;我国经济的投资拉动型增长方式及与之相伴随的公共品供给机制,通过"租金"创造机制诱导特定产业的发展,从而能够提升产业结构,促进资源和生产要素的优化配置,符合赶超型经济的目标要求。     

产业辐射机理及其动态优化研究

产业辐射有效解释了新兴产业技术知识与资源在不同区域之间发生投射辐射,进而提高技术能力的经济现象。运用多学科的科学原理及方法探讨区域产业结构调整及产业升级问题,为推进我国特色区域创新体系建设提供了新视角。同时通过研究硅谷对新竹的产业辐射作用,从辐射动力和能〖JP〗量传递两个方面探讨产业辐射机理,界定产业辐射双方（辐射源与接收方）的基本特征,以及辐射产生、相互依赖、互为衍生的路径关系,再以动态的观点探讨了产业辐射系统的优化步骤与内容,进而分析了提升联动效果的机制。