基于不同分布假设GARCH族模型对上证指数波动性分析的比较研究

股票市场的波动性研究已经成为众多研究者和投资者广泛关注的焦点。以上证股票收益率为研究对象,在三种不同的分布假设下,利用GARCH族模型对上证指数波动性进行了比较研究,分析表明:上证股票收益率具有显著的条件异方差性,且基于GED分布的GARCH(1,1)模型是消除该条件异方差性的最佳模型;上证股票收益率具有正的风险溢价,且基于GED分布的GARCH(1,1)-M模型是反映风险溢价情况的最优模型;上证股票收益率存在着明显的不对称性(杠杆效应),利空消息比利好消息更容易引起大的波动,且基于标准正态分布的EGRCH(1,1)模型是揭示该不对称性的最佳模型。     

欧洲碳排放权交易价格机制的实证研究

随着环境问题的日益严峻,作为一种市场化的减排方式—碳排放权交易逐渐受到越来越多的关注,也成为了众多学者研究的重点。以欧洲排放权交易体系为对象,研究其价格形成机制,分析了两阶段EUA价格的走势及其成因,建立了碳排放权交易价格模型,并检验了其适用性;然后分别以欧洲减排的第一阶段和第二阶段为独立样本,进行价格估计和预测。研究发现,EGARCH(1,1)-t模型适合用于EUA价格机制的研究,能够较好地估计和预测减排前两阶段的EUA价格,但是由于政治、交易制度、市场等方面原因,两个阶段的价格形成机制、价格波动性等方面存在较大差异。     

基于EGARCH-M模型和沪深300指数的股市风险分析

分别运用基于GED分布,t分布以及正态分布的EGARCH（1,1）-M模型计量了沪深300指数的日对数收益率序列的VaR值,并与基于正态分布的GARCH（1,1）模型进行了比较。通过统计分析和后验测试等实证研究表明,基于GED分布的EGARCH（1,1）-M模型在刻画我国股市的市场风险方面要优于其他三种模型。在此分析结果的基础上,本文提出了相关结论以及政策建议。     

基于EGARCH-CVaR方法的保险资金直接入市风险分析——以吉林省为例

本文基于EGARCH模型和GED分布下的CVaR模型对保险资金直接入市的风险进行度量,实证测算了八只股票的个股及投资组合的绝对CVaR值和相对CVaR值,描述了各自的极端损失状况;金融机构可以根据个股值和组合值,设置风险资本或提取风险准备金,从而有效地监控潜在的极端损失。     

中国银行间同业拆借市场信息国际化的检验

本文运用EGARCH模型，检验伦敦银行间同业拆借市场和中国银行间同业拆借市场之间拆借利率波动溢出的流星雨假定。结果表明，来自伦敦银行间同业拆借市场的流星雨对中国银行间同业拆借市场利率波动具有显著性影响。     

WHO DRIVES THE RUSSIAN FINANCIAL MARKETS?

By employing the EGARCH model using monthly data from September 1995 to March 2003, we found that financial indicators from Germany rather than the United States are the main drivers of Russian financial markets. In a one‐step prediction, the fluctuations of asset returns are well predicted that the prediction errors fall within the prescribed range of the confidence bands. However, EGARCH does not necessarily dominate the benchmark prediction of the random walk model, because with Russia's financial markets constantly in transition and adjusting to frequent changes in the financial system, the usefulness of past data is diminished.     

基于GARCH、EGARCH模型的LME镍期货价格波动集聚性实证分析

镍是经济发展的重要资源,是伦敦金属交易所(LME)六大交易品种之一。讨论LME镍期货价格波动规律,有助于更科学合理地预测镍期货市场行情,把握国际镍期货市场风险。1980年1月—2014年12月LME镍期货价格时间序列具有明显的随机游走趋势与自相关关系,LME镍期货市场为弱式有效。镍期货价格序列存在ARCH效应,GARCH(1,1)模型计量结果显示其具有波动集聚性特征,反映出波动的外部冲击对市场的影响具有长期性,EGARCH(1,1)模型计量结果显示镍价格序列波动的非对称性特征,但利好信息、利空信息对镍价冲击的杠杆效应很弱,有助于揭示镍期货市场风险规律与投资策略。     

Does past performance affect mutual fund tracking error in Taiwan?

This study examines the relationship between fund past performance and manager choice of portfolio risk in Taiwan. Employing the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and linear regression models, the results demonstrate that historically poor average performance does not increase mutual fund tracking error (TE) or portfolio risk. Additionally, yearly tournament behaviour, namely mid-year losers increasing their last-half year TEs, only appears in funds with higher management fees. This implies that managers of high management fee funds actively increase TE in response to poor historical performance, to enable them to beat the market during future months or the second half of the year.     

中国证券市场周内效应的实证检验

通过使用EGARCH模型,以中国证券市场具有代表性的三个指数为研究对象,从实证的角度分析市场异象中的周内效应.结果表明,从长期看,我国证券市场存在显著的周一效应.从短期看,证券市场大盘处于上升期还存在周二、周三甚至是周四效应;在下跌横盘期,周内效应不显著;在上升横盘期除了周一效应显著外,还存在显著的周五效应.上升期和下...     

Impact of foreign direct investment volatility on economic development in the Indian subcontinent

Using annual data over forty years from 1975 to 2014, this study investigates the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the conditional volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indian subcontinent. The study reports the rising trends of both FDI and GDP and documents that the greater‐than‐expected FDI due to innovative shocks or policy innovations positively influences conditional volatility of FDI which, in turn, positively contributes to the economic growth/development. The conditional volatility used in the study is the variance derived from the diagnostically selected exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model. The study also reports the causality of both the FDI and its volatility across borders. More specifically, it reports bidirectional causality of FDI between India and Pakistan but unidirectional causality from Bangladesh to both India and Pakistan. It further documents that this volatility is persistent in all the economies and that it spillovers from both India and Pakistan to Bangladesh. The evidence attributes the economic development in the Indian subcontinent to the economic or policy innovations in attracting FDI. The findings of this study thus contribute to the literature by documenting the contrasting evidence that the volatility along with the trend of FDI contributes to the economic development and by reconciling the contrasting evidence.