Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In this paper we apply a simple hazard model to develop an early warning system of bank distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Specifically, we identify a set of leading indicators of bank distress that are used subsequently to predict the probability of bank failure in these countries. The investigation covers a wide set of bank level variables and other variables including the influence of bank management, competition, diversification, ownership and regulation. Similar to the previous empirical evidence, we found that good management lowers the likelihood of distress. Moreover, competition and diversification were found to be bad for the health of banks. This result is consistent with some empirical evidence on diversification; however, it contradicts the bulk of literature on competition, which suggests a negative influence on the probability of distress. The ownership structure and the capital requirement index were uninformative. Similar to the previous literature, the institutional development index was statistically relevant predictor. The bank specific and other CAMEL type variables as well as the systematic shocks in the financial and macroeconomic environment were all found to be in line with the findings of related empirical studies. Finally, we find that by conditioning on the relevant covariates, a simple hazard model has performed fairly well in predicting bank distress in the GCC countries.     

去工业化对收入不平等的影响:机制分析与实证检验

基于126个国家1991-2017年的面板数据,考察了去工业化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现,去工业化会显著加剧收入不平等程度,这在发展中经济体尤为显著。从传导机制看,去工业化既可以通过劳动力就业转移直接影响收入不平等,也可通过非熟练劳动力就业和服务业部门就业分化间接影响收入不平等。一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力受到更大冲击,致使该部分劳动力失业,加剧收入不平等;另一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力的就业从工业的高薪部门转移至服务业的低薪部门,最终影响收入不平等。进一步研究发现,在可能存在"过早去工业化"的国家去工业化对收入不平等的作用更加明显。因此发展中经济体要着重预防由于去工业化可能带来的收入不平等程度恶化。     

Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility

Accounting standards require companies to assess the fair value of any stock options granted to executives and employees. We develop a model for accurately valuing executive and employee stock options, focusing on performance hurdles, early exercise and uncertain volatility. We apply the model in two case studies and show that properly computed fair values can be significantly lower than traditional Black–Scholes values. We then explore the implications for pay-for-performance sensitivity and the design of effective share-based incentive schemes. We find that performance hurdles can require a much greater fraction of total compensation to be a fixed salary, if pre-existing incentive levels are to be maintained.     

The antecedents of early internationalization: A configurational perspective

The literature on international business and international entrepreneurship provides multiple explanations for early internationalization. Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, this study examines the antecedents of early internationalization for small firms based in a small economy, focusing on entrepreneurs’ attitudes toward the economic opportunities available in their domestic market, the risk of internationalizing, and the profitability of entering foreign markets. Three additional antecedents are examined: unsolicited orders, existence of underutilized capacity, and the behavior of competitors. The study uncovers three distinct combinations of antecedents that are equifinally linked to the early internationalization of small enterprises, and contributes to the literature through a multi-causal, configurational approach.     

2009年中国经济增长率周期波动呈U型走势——利用景气指数和Probit模型的分析和预测

本文基于景气指数、"宏观经济监测预警信号系统"及Probit模型方法,对当前的经济景气状况和走势进行了分析和预测.结果表明:先行合成指数和先行扩散指数同时在2008年10月出现谷底,预示着本轮经济周期波动的谷将出现在2009年的4月或5月.在全球金融危机的背景下,中国经济仍会保持"一枝独秀",2009年下半年我国将处于经济周期波动的上升阶段.但是我国外需仍然不振,保增长将主要靠内需,经济增长周期波动的回升将呈现U型走势.     

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。     

Environmental versus Human-Induced Scarcity in the Commons: Do They Trigger the Same Response?

We study appropriation strategies in common pool resources where extinction is a credible threat. Here we present an experimental study of the appropriation of common pool resources in a dynamic setting where resource availability depends on the initial environmental characteristics of the common resource and on human-induced resource depletion due to users’ appropriation patterns. Our results show that initial resource scarcity limits appropriation by inducing an initial caution among users that persists throughout of the game. Additionally, we find that subjects restrain their appropriation strategies when scarcity increases. However, this concern for resource scarcity is not enough to prevent resource depletion. Agents do not counteract the previous rounds’ appropriation strategies but follow the appropriation trend. High appropriation levels are followed by higher appropriation strategies, thus promoting the well known tragedy of the commons. Often concern for resource preservation is not great enough to limit appropriation.      

新中国成立初期城市私有住宅公有化过程及其启示

当前,我国城市住宅短缺问题突出,政府城市住宅政策尚不完善。有鉴于此,回顾和总结新中国成立初期的城市住房政策就颇有意义。在新中国成立初期,我国同样面临城市住宅短缺的问题。当时,私有住宅占城市住宅总量的绝大多数。中国政府采取两步走的公有化策略,公私并存和社会主义改造。通过对城市住宅的公有化,政府手中掌握了大量的城市住宅资源,有利于管理和分配。但在公有化过程中私人房主的利益一而再地被忽视和损害。回看新中国成立初期的那段历史,可以为我们今天城市住宅制度的制定提供一些启示,一是,住宅制度的制定需遵循经济规律;二是,满足百姓的住宅需求是住宅制度的根本目标。     

Upper echelons and portfolio strategies of venture capital firms

In this study we analyze how the composition of the top management team (TMT) influences the portfolio strategy choice in venture capital (VC) organizations. We develop a model of risk perception to investigate how education and experience of TMT members impact whether VC organizations invest with a focus on early stage ventures or not, specialize or diversify across industries, and invest with a broad or narrow geographic scope.Evaluation of data on TMTs and portfolio strategies of 136 European VC firms revealed that VC firms with higher proportions of TMT members with science/engineering education and entrepreneurial experience more likely invest with an early stage focus. Furthermore, TMTs with more management education diversify their portfolios more across industries. Finally, the more international experience TMT members of VC organizations have, the broader the geographic scope of investees. We discuss the implications of our findings for the VC literature.