物业管理前期介入的重要性及操作内容

本文论述了物业管理前期介入的重要意义：它能较好地履行建设单位与物业管理企业对前期物业管理的责任，有利于防范前期物业管理中潜在的风险。这是保证开发商开发建设高质量、高品质项目的重要辅助途径之一，也是便于对业主入住后服务，从而能树立开发企业和物业服务企业的良好的、负责任的形象，更有利于物业企业在日后的服务过程中能与业主委员会达成正式委托管理服务合同关系。通过专业的、规范的介入方法可以达到前期介入的预期目的。     

预警原则：民族村寨旅游预开发的实证研究

民族村寨的“双预”问题指的是旅游预开发民族村寨的文化保护预警问题。分析总结旅游预开发民族村寨可能会遇到的问题,可以建立起文化保护的若干预警原则。在民族村寨旅游开发过程中,这些原则将有助于民族旅游可持续发展。     

区域金融稳定宏观预警模型研究——基于河北省的实证分析

本文基于河北省宏观经济、银行业、保险业等部门的指标数据,利用系统方程模型,构建了衡量区域金融稳定状况的金融稳定指数,并以河北省为例,对河北省金融稳定状况进行了评估和预测。结果表明:河北省经济金融发展状况总体良好,但保险市场秩序仍比较混乱,发展相对不成熟,在一定程度上与实体经济存在差距;未来三年河北省总体状态稳定。     

Agents for diffusion of agricultural innovations for environmental outcomes

In New Zealand, local governments are tasked with both sustainably managing natural resources and supporting adoption of practices and technologies for environmental outcomes. Unfortunately, farmers in New Zealand lack trust in advice on environmental performance provided by local governments. Hence, local governments may seek to partner with others to disseminate information about environmentally friendly practices and technologies to farmers. Empirical evidence indicates that New Zealand farmers are more likely to adopt new practices after seeing them successfully demonstrated; therefore, local government would do well to partner with those who have tried the practices themselves and those with large farmer networks. In this paper, we use unique survey data to identify the characteristics of such “innovators” and “connectors”. We also identify the characteristics of individuals who trust environmental information provided by local governments. We find that sex, age, education level, financial robustness, farm size, and the number of distinct land uses are correlated with both innovativeness and connectedness. However, among these characteristics, only education and financial robustness predict trust in environmental information provided by local governments.     

Structural Change in Rural Croatia—Is Early Retirement An Option?

Structural change in agriculture, although often connected with social hardship of uncompetitive small-scale farms and a loss of tradition, is inevitable. It is the basis for successful rural development. We discuss whether early retirement schemes (ERS) are a good value for public money in terms of the necessary adaptations of the farming sector in the course of economic development, and if they are an option for the EU candidate country Croatia. In Croatia, the small scale farm structure leads to widely uncompetitive farms. A study on farmers’ socioeconomic situation as well as actual and expected reactions to policy support is based on results of a household survey. The sample includes farm households from two Croatian regions: The peri-urban Zagreb county and the typically rural region of Bjelovar-Bilogora. Despite unfavourable economic conditions and insufficient farm incomes, rural people are often reluctant to give up farming. We present results on the age structure, income and production structure of farms and farmers’ likely reactions on ERS. We discuss incentives which push farmers to leave the farming sector and ask in which direction farm families plan their future. We conclude with a synthesis of the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of early retirement schemes and link them with possible outcomes in the Croatian case.     

一种改进的KLR信号分析法应用研究

本文阐述了货币危机预警的KLR信号分析法,并指出该分析法在中国应用时存在的相关性不足的问题。通过对KLR信号分析法的指标体系的改进,综合已有的研究成果构建了一套适合中国当前经济状况的货币预警指标体系。然后利用改进的预警指标体系对中国近几年的货币危机可能性进行了预警分析,结果表明这套改进后的预警体系具有良好的预警效果。     

Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises

This paper examines banking crises in a large sample of countries over a forty-year period. A multinomial modeling approach is applied to panel data in order to track and capture end-to-end cyclical crisis formations, which enhances the binary focus of previous research studies. Several macroeconomic and banking sector variables are shown to be emblematic of leading indicators across the idiosyncratic stages of a banking crisis. Gross domestic product is an early warning signal across all phases, and a concomitant deterioration in consumption spending and fixed capital formation, preceded by a credit boom, signal a banking crisis to come. Currency depreciation exemplifies ensuing financial distress, reinforced by developmental constructs and regional integration. Lower real interest rates, increasing imports, and rising deposits are frequently harbingers of a recovery. Period effects underscore the dynamic evolution of common contemporaneous precursors over time. Premised on pursuing cyclical movements through multiple outcomes, our findings on forecasting performance suggest enhanced predictive power. Several multinomial logistic models generate higher predictive accuracy in contrast to probit models. Compared to machine learning methods (which encompass artificial neural networks, gradient boost, k-nearest neighbors, and random forests methods), a multinomial logistic approach outperforms during pre-crisis periods and when crisis severity is modeled, whereas gradient boost has the highest predictive accuracy across numerous versions of the multinomial model. As investors and policy makers continue to confront banking crises, leading to high economic and social costs, enhanced multinomial modeling methods make a valuable contribution to improved forecasting performance.     

Social mobility in the early middle ages

Estimates of inequality of living standards based on average height differences between socioeconomic strata are likely biased if the social status of some individuals changed during their lifetime. Height differences estimated from skeletal remains, reflecting living standards during childhood and adolescence, are probably too small if social status is inferred based on grave goods which are associated with the individuals’ social status at the time of their death. The higher the level of social mobility, the more distinguished individuals will not have had a privileged childhood and, therefore, have the biological characteristics of the disadvantaged group. In a newly assembled sample of individual level anthropometric data from 26 early medieval row grave cemeteries in south-western Germany, men buried with a long sword in their grave were on average about 3 cm taller than the others. In a simple model of the mechanics of the social-mobility bias, this height difference, together with parameters from the literature, implies a level of social mobility typical of small-scale agricultural or pastoral societies.     

会计信息质量预警机制初探

如何有效提高会计信息质量是会计工作管理者及研究人员一直探讨的一大难题,在借鉴已有研究的基础上,提出了建立会计信息质量预警机制的设想.建立一个以政府部门为主导的会计信息汇集和质量监控系统,采取适时监督的方法,及时对会计信息质量进行监督和预警,并提出了实现这一机制应解决好的相关问题.