Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada

This paper develops an index of financial stress for the Canadian financial system. It is a continuous variable with a spectrum of values, where extreme values are called financial crises. An internal Bank of Canada survey is used to condition the choice of variables. The authors show that alternative measures of financial crisis suggested by the literature do not accurately reflect the Canadian experience, while several measures developed in this paper are more representative and are thus likely better suited to a developed financial system. An accurate characterization of stress is a prerequisite for any researcher attempting to forecast financial crises.     

南宋前期州县税赋安全考述——以《庆元条法事类》为中心

税赋是政权得以存在与运转的物质基础。南宋前期因面临严重的财政困难,十分重视对州县这一层面的官吏管理和制度建设。这在《庆元条法事类》等史书中,集中体现为加强对税赋征收、保管、监督等方面的预防措施,确保了南宋前期税赋的安全。     

“双边监控”期我国纺织品服装出口欧盟策略分析

欧盟对我国纺织品服装出口“重新设限”期满后中欧双方签订了为期一年的“双边监控”协议,我国主要采用出口许可证方式对纺织品服装出口欧盟进行主动管理。“双边监控”对于我国纺织企业贸易环境会带来一定程度的改善,同时也带来一些不利因素。我国应该强化许可证对于出口数量和价格变动的预警功能,逐步提高对欧出口企业的资质条件,坚持绿色生产和社会责任意识,改变传统经营和贸易方式,进一步提高出口市场多元化层次。     

民国初期黑龙江图书馆发展特征研究 ——以1912—1923年间齐齐哈尔市为例

YU Yong(Qiqihar City Library, Qiqiharl61000, China)     

外商直接投资的生态环境效应的预警指标体系构建

本文从如何来评价和监控外商直接投资的生态环境效应的问题出发,在系统的分析了前人研究成果的基础处上,试采用PSR模型的相关理论,从FDI对生态环境的压力、生态环境状态以及人类FDI活动对生态环境影响所作出的响应三个方面建立了包含9个二级指标和24个三级指标的外商直接投资的生态环境效应的预警指标体系。     

Roots of growth and productivity change in Dutch shipping industry, 1500–1800

Shipping was one of the most dynamic industries of the pre industrial period. The article presents detailed estimates of the growth of output and inputs of the shipping industry in the Netherlands between 1500 and 1800. These are used to study the development of productivity in two ways: by comparing output with inputs (labour and capital), and by analysing the relationship between output prices and input prices. Both methods lead to different results, which we explain. It appears that productivity in this sector increased strongly between ca. 1550 and 1620 as a result of technological and institutional changes, such as the increased efficiency of the network of shipping routes. After 1620 labour productivity continued to increase because of factor substitution as wages increased much more than capital costs. The competitiveness of the Dutch shipping sector did not improve anymore after ca. 1650, however, which helps to explain why its rapid growth came to an end in the second half of the 17th century.     

Structural Change in Rural Croatia—Is Early Retirement An Option?

Structural change in agriculture, although often connected with social hardship of uncompetitive small-scale farms and a loss of tradition, is inevitable. It is the basis for successful rural development. We discuss whether early retirement schemes (ERS) are a good value for public money in terms of the necessary adaptations of the farming sector in the course of economic development, and if they are an option for the EU candidate country Croatia. In Croatia, the small scale farm structure leads to widely uncompetitive farms. A study on farmers’ socioeconomic situation as well as actual and expected reactions to policy support is based on results of a household survey. The sample includes farm households from two Croatian regions: The peri-urban Zagreb county and the typically rural region of Bjelovar-Bilogora. Despite unfavourable economic conditions and insufficient farm incomes, rural people are often reluctant to give up farming. We present results on the age structure, income and production structure of farms and farmers’ likely reactions on ERS. We discuss incentives which push farmers to leave the farming sector and ask in which direction farm families plan their future. We conclude with a synthesis of the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of early retirement schemes and link them with possible outcomes in the Croatian case.     

Learning and knowledge in early internationalization research: Past accomplishments and future directions

This article provides an evaluative overview of international entrepreneurship literature, in which the issues of learning and knowledge feature as central components underlying the causes, processes, and outcomes of early internationalization. We rely on Huber's (1991) categorization of five knowledge acquisition types - experiential learning, vicarious learning, searching, grafting, and congenital learning - to organize our review and to guide our examination of the literature. We discuss convergent findings in terms of conceptual and empirical issues and set forth areas for future research.     

一种改进的KLR信号分析法应用研究

本文阐述了货币危机预警的KLR信号分析法,并指出该分析法在中国应用时存在的相关性不足的问题。通过对KLR信号分析法的指标体系的改进,综合已有的研究成果构建了一套适合中国当前经济状况的货币预警指标体系。然后利用改进的预警指标体系对中国近几年的货币危机可能性进行了预警分析,结果表明这套改进后的预警体系具有良好的预警效果。