企业财务风险预警模型构建中现金流量分析法的运用

通过对当前流行的众多财务风险预警模型缺陷的分析,我们应当选择一个全新的视角,以现金流量分析为基础,构建财务风险预警新模型,以提高预警模型的敏感性、准确性、适用性、监控性、超前性。     

基于神经网络集成的失业预警方法

提出采用神经网络集成技术对中国失业预警系统进行建模,以克服当前失业预警系统建模中存在的小样本、高维度、非线性、噪音数据等难题。采用BP神经网络回归模型对失业率进行预测;基于两种集成技术Bagging与AdaBoost对多个神经网络进行集成,以获得比单个预测模型更好的精度与稳定性;最后基于广东省的社会经济调查数据进行了实证分析,实验结果表明:在对失业率的预测上,Bagging集成方法的预测效果优于Adaboost集成方法,也优于单个最好的神经网络模型。     

大数据视阈下资产证券化基础资产风险重构--以互联网消费信贷信用分析为例

针对近年来我国互联网行业推出的互联网消费信贷以及2015年以来将消费者信贷资产证券化后向投资者推出的现象,本文立足于传统信贷风险的分析并同时考虑资产证券化会为消费者信贷带来的风险因素,力图探讨这类新兴互联网金融产品的风险控制问题,同时证明建立互联网征信系统的迫切性。在分析中涉及到对于目前我国征信系统的发展概况以及大数据时代之下互联网金融征信的发展可期的方向;并与美国新兴成熟互联网征信平台ZestFinance进行对比,旨在为我国互联网消费信贷资产证券化征信平台建立提出发展的思路。     

An Italian forerunner of modern cost allocation concepts: Lorenzo De Minico and the logic of the 'flows of services'

This article provides an analysis of the thoughts of an Italian academic who lived in the first half of the twentieth century, Lorenzo De Minico, in particular it regards his approach to the allocation of common costs. De Minico's main concern was with the conventional, subjective allocation methods proposed by Italian practitioners and academics of his time. He valiantly searched for a methodological approach based on using causality as the basis for linking costs to cost objects. The most interesting finding of De Minico was the concept of 'flows of services' and his commitment to offering a convincing answer to the problem of general or common cost apportionment that went beyond 'traditional' criteria. De Minico's 'flows of services' referred to the outputs of resources consumed in indirect services. These indirect costs can be considered easily 'directly attributable' only if it is possible to measure the connected 'flows of services'. The article shows that the concept developed by De Minico in early twentieth century of Italy confirms the idea that some theoretical frameworks for a causal allocation of common costs were in existence many decades before information technology made such systems a practical proposition.     

物业管理早期介入如何贯穿房地产开发全过程

针对目前物业管理早期介入中的难点进行分析,并提出一些有效的方法;物业管理早期介入在房地产开发的不同阶段工作重点和作用各不相同,对此进行了归纳和对比。物业管理早期介入对整体物业项目建设质量的提高,对房地产开发企业品牌的树立和持续发展,具有深远的现实意义。     

Comparing early warning systems for banking crises

Despite the extensive literature on prediction of banking crises by Early Warning Systems (EWSs), their practical use by policy makers is limited, even in the international financial institutions. This is a paradox since the changing nature of banking risks as more economies liberalise and develop their financial systems, as well as ongoing innovation, makes the use of EWS for informing policies aimed at preventing crises more necessary than ever. In this context, we assess the logit and signal extraction EWS for banking crises on a comprehensive common dataset. We suggest that logit is the most appropriate approach for global EWS and signal extraction for country-specific EWS. Furthermore, it is important to consider the policy maker's objectives when designing predictive models and setting related thresholds since there is a sharp trade-off between correctly calling crises and false alarms.     

我国跨境资金流动的顺周期性、预警指标和逆周期管理

本文从银行外汇资产负债变动、资本和金融项目流动、跨境收付结售汇意愿三个维度验证了我国跨境资金流动存在顺周期性;运用KLR模型方法建立了我国跨境资金流动的监测预警月度指标体系,并采用景气指数方法对KLR方法建立的监测预警体系的有效性进行了验证;结合我国跨境资金流动的顺周期性以及监测预警结果,提出了针对银行和外汇市场实施逆周期管理的政策建议。     

Regulation of food safety risks: the case of food irradiation in Japan

As risk analysis becomes more important in the promulgation of international and domestic standards, scientific data and the utilization of this data as a foundation for regulations is fundamental in determining these standards. Over the past 20 years, the scientific understanding of food irradiation technology has increased significantly regarding the impact of the technology on various types of food and the potential applications. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), acting together, announced a standard on the benefits of food irradiation in early 1980s. Despite the consensus amongst international organizations regarding the benefits of food irradiation, individual countries have not been as eager to promote this technology. Japan began an initial investigation into the applications of food irradiation over 30 years ago, yet today prohibits irradiation except for the potato. This paper examines the history of research and regulation on food irradiation in Japan, and how scientific information and other factors have influenced its regulatory policy. These factors, including industry willingness, regulatory structure and perception, are not outside exerting force on the regulations of this technology, but rather are inherently a part of the regulatory process itself, and lead to a 'vicious circle' of rigidity that closes off the opportunity to incorporate new scientific and technical information as it arises.     

How to distinguish innovative suppliers? Identifying innovative suppliers as new task for purchasing

For companies operating under unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, such as high wage/high tax countries in central Europe, innovation has become a central theme for survival. If there is one thing that has changed in innovation management during the last decade, it is the growing reliance on external sources of technology. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. This paper focuses on the conceptual basis and derives propositions on the nature of innovative suppliers: specialized, technically competent firms, located in the proximity of the buyer, being embedded in a trusted and intensive relationship are identified as having a higher probability to be the core innovative suppliers. These criteria can serve to refine strategic sourcing decisions and improve communication between engineering and purchasing professionals.     

Empirical forecasting of slow-onset disasters for improved emergency response: An application to Kenya’s arid north

Mitigating the negative welfare consequences of crises such as droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks, is a major challenge in many areas of the world, especially in highly vulnerable areas insufficiently equipped to prevent food and livelihood security crisis in the face of adverse shocks. Given the finite resources allocated for emergency response, and the expected increase in incidences of humanitarian catastrophe due to changing climate patterns, there is a need for rigorous and efficient methods of early warning and emergency needs assessment. In this paper we develop an empirical model, based on a relatively parsimonious set of regularly measured variables from communities in Kenya’s arid north, that generates remarkably accurate forecasts of the likelihood of famine with at least 3 months lead time. Such a forecasting model is a potentially valuable tool for enhancing early warning capacity.