ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF DISTRIBUTION DENSITIES IN MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY. I

We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of a geometric Brownian motion and the density of the stock price process in the Hull–White model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the price of an Asian option are obtained.     

城市化与生态环境相互作用系统脆弱性时空变化规律--以黑龙江省东部煤电化基地为例

本文分析了黑龙江省东部煤电化基地城市化与生态环境脆弱性之间的耦合关系,采用SPSS主成分分析的方法对城市化与生态环境脆弱性之间的时空规律进行分析,得出了黑龙江省东部煤电化基地各城市的综合得分,绘制出黑龙江省东部煤电化基地的时间脆弱性曲线和空间地域分布图,进一步分析了城市化对生态环境脆弱性的时间规律和空间规律,并得出了以下结论：（1）黑龙江省东部煤电化基地的各城市的脆弱性较高,但改善空间较大。（2）黑龙江省东部煤电化基地各城市的脆弱性地域差异较大,其中牡丹江的脆弱性较低。（3）黑龙江省东部煤电化基地各城市应以清洁生产、资源循环利用为主要的循环经济生产模式,大力发展旅游、对外贸易等绿色经济。     

东亚区域一体化的“轮轴-辐条”结构难题与中国的对策

东亚区域一体化近年来有较快的进展,但也出现了轮轴-辐条结构,导致离心力增大的障碍。中国作为东亚地区的经济大国,在东亚区域一体化过程中,既要发挥大国的作用,也要争取作为轮轴国的地位,这样才能在一体化过程中取得主导地位,获得应有的利益。     

川渝联手开拓南亚市场研究

川渝产业结构与南亚国家具有很强的互补性,川渝自身的区位优势明显,有必要联手拓展南亚国家市场。在此过程中,川渝政府应该进一步完善当前的物流市场,加快高层次外贸人才的培养和引进,并做好其他相关的外贸配套工作,充分将潜在的竞争优势转化现实的竞争力。     

东亚生产网络分工提高了我国制造业的出口竞争力吗

在梳理东亚生产网络分工影响制造业竞争力的作用机理基础上,基于面板数据模型,验证了东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的影响。实证分析结果表明:结合影响制造业行业竞争力的国内因素进行考察,东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业整体以及不同行业的出口竞争力均具有促进作用。进一步将东亚生产网络分工的作用效应进行分解,发现东亚生产网络分工主要是通过劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应途径提升我国制造业整体的出口竞争力,但理论上所预期的规模经济效应并未发生促进作用。东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的作用途径在制造业不同部门存在显著差异,一方面,资本、技术密集型制造业的出口竞争力的提升在很大程度上是由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率效应所驱动,即便是此类融入东亚生产网络程度很高的制造业行业所获得的技术外溢效应并不显著。另一方面,劳动密集型制造业部门出口竞争力的提升却并非由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应所推动。这种分工状况容易导致我国制造业比较优势的锁定效应,压缩我国制造业出口竞争力提升的空间。     

The FTA Music Is Playing in Asia: After ECFA,Will Taiwan Join the Dance?

In the context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations, major trading economies are seeking free trade agreements (FTAs) to secure their market access objectives. Nowhere is this dynamic stronger than in East Asia, where a web of bilateral and plurilateral agreements is stitching together piecewise an Asian free trade area that could plausibly rival the EU and NAFTA trade blocs and where the possibility of a formal pan-Asian agreement has been raised. Taiwan has been largely excluded from this dynamic. However, with the June 29, 2010 signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China, the possibility of Taiwan joining the FTA dance in East Asia would appear to have been greatly strengthened as the advocates had anticipated. This article considers the economic and trade implications of Taiwan's participation versus non-participation in an emerging East Asian trade bloc. We support our analysis with simulations using the GTAP computable general equilibrium model. The article finds that the benefits to Taiwan of participating in such a bloc have increased, as have the opportunity costs of exclusion, since the share of East Asian partners in its trade has risen.