出口与增长:中国三十年经验实证(1978-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和时外贸易成就斐然.那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验.本文在全面解析三十年经济成就以及参考国内外文献的基础上,实证检验和分析了出口推动中国经济增长的作用,并从中总结和得到了相关的经验扣结论.     

Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal

Over the past decade, input–output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) has developed into a major analytical tool. We review the development of SDA and its relationship to other methodologies. We present the fundamental principles of alternative approaches to deriving SDA estimating equations and explore the various decompositions of changes in IO tables. We also identify several complications and unresolved issues. Most importantly, we find that a rigorous grounding in economic theory is lacking for SDA, but we are able to offer some suggestions as to how it might be established.     

Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China

Summary

The development of tourism in China over the last two decades is reviewed. It is argued that the success of the economic reforms in China which has resulted in fast economic growth has also been the main cause of rapid tourism growth in China. Forecasts of international tourist arrivals by source country market and destination region within China are generated over the period 2001-05. An integrative approach is used which combines both time-series and econometric methodologies, termed structural integrated time-series econometric analysis (SITEA).     

The role of social capital in encouraging residents' pro-environmental behaviors in community-based ecotourism

This study integrated the theoretical perspective of social capital into community-based ecotourism (CBET). Two destinations were selected to test the conceptual model to see whether social capital improves cooperation between community residents and the coordination of CBET development, and whether its role is persuasive and encourages residents' pro-environmental behaviors. The sample consisted of 420 residents living in two typical ecotourism destinations in China. Findings from a two-stage structural equation model analysis show that economic benefits have a direct impact on residents' pro-environmental behaviors; and the cognitive, rather than structural social capital has a partially mediating effects on this relationship. These findings indicate that a high level of social capital, particularly the cognitive variant, is instrumental in encouraging residents' pro-environmental behaviors.     

论社会保障的生命周期及中国的周期阶段

从国家保障、福利国家、强制储蓄和社会保险等主要的社会保障模式中 ,可以看到由产生、成长、高峰、衰退和消亡等阶段组成的社会保障体制的生命周期。中国的新社会保障体制在其生命周期上已经完成产生阶段 ,正处于成长阶段的中期 ,经过另外三十年左右的努力 ,将可以进入高峰阶段。为此 ,中国需要在社会保障体制的改革和建设中对农村保障、养老保障、失业保障和医疗保障诸方面 ,付出一系列特殊而具体的努力     

蓝色经济区大学生低碳消费现状调查分析

众所周知,低碳经济已经成为未来经济发展方向,低碳消费是实现低碳经济的重要举措。大学生群体是一个特殊群体,对低碳消费的引导、推广等有着重要的影响力、号召力。本文旨在通过调查蓝色经济区大学生低碳消费现状,发现问题并提出相应的改善措施,以更好的推进蓝色经济区的经济、生态、文化等的快速健康发展。     

上海自贸区离岸银行税收政策风险的法律控制

上海自贸区作为我国推进金融改革的新型发展模式,其离岸银行业务的税收政策在施行中可能会产生离岸银行业务优惠税制与我国现有税制的冲突、“税收洼地”导致“黑色经济”滋生、征管程序中出现“法律真空”地带等法律风险.而中国香港、新加坡离岸银行业务税收监管制度则体现出了低税负、高效征管的特点,有鉴于此,自贸区在对离岸银行进行税制创新时应当以税收政策的法定化、统一化为最终目标,协调境内关外离岸银行优惠税收制度与境内税制改革,建立离岸银行的国际化税收征管制度,以控制自贸区离岸银行业务税收政策的法律风险.     

Broadband׳s contribution to economic growth in rural areas: Moving towards a causal relationship

This paper uses recent data on both broadband availability and adoption to empirically gauge the contribution of broadband to the economic growth of rural areas of the United States over the past decade. Availability data from the National Broadband Map aggregated to county level is used in conjunction with county-level adoption data from Federal Communication Commission. Economic variables of interest include median household income, number of firms with paid employees, total employed, percentage in poverty, and the percentage of employees classified as either creative class or non-farm proprietors. A propensity score matching technique (between a “treated” group associated with various broadband thresholds and a control group) is used to make preliminary causal statements regarding broadband and economic health. Growth rates between 2001 and 2010 for different economic measures are tested for statistical differences between the treated and non-treated groups, restricting the analysis to non-metropolitan counties. Results suggest that high levels of broadband adoption in rural areas positively (and potentially causally) impacted income growth between 2001 and 2010, and negatively influenced unemployment growth. Similarly, low levels of broadband adoption in rural areas lead to declines in the number of firms and total employment numbers in the county. Broadband availability measures (as opposed to adoption) demonstrate only limited impacts, suggesting that future broadband policies should be more demand-oriented.     

‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake

We examine the effect of globalization, in its economic and social dimensions, on obesity and caloric intake, namely the so –called ‘globesity’ hypothesis. Our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake. A one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23.8 percent increase in obese population and a 4.3 percent rise in calorie intake. The effect remains statistically significant even after using an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality and ommited variable bias, a lagged structure, and corrections for panel standard errors. However, we find that the primary driver (of the ‘globesity’ phenomenon) is the ‘social’ rather than the ‘economic’ dimension of globalization, and specifically the effect of changes in ‘information flows’ and ‘social proximity’ on obesity. A one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13.7 percent.     

基于经济资本管理的贷款系统性风险防范研究

在系统性风险防范的视角下,本文对经济资本管理的基本方法进行了重新梳理,发现现行的经济资本管理会导致亲周期效应问题,削弱其防范系统性风险的能力。为此,要在系统性风险防范目标下改进经济资本计量方法,以科学的系统性风险预测为基础确定经济资本限额,优化经济资本在行业和地区层面的分配,以及通过贷款集中度管理追求风险分散最大化,从而实现对系统性风险的有效防范。