Factor substitution and labor market friction in the United States: 1948–2010

We re-estimate the capital-labor elasticity of substitution and the biased factor-augmenting technological progress using a system approach for the aggregate U.S. economy from 1948 to 2010. Due to (i) the significant impacts of labor market dynamics on economic growth and (ii) the fundamental tension between the short-run data that are available and the long-run parameter that is required in the estimation process, we incorporate labor market friction into a supply-side system to re-estimate these important growth parameters and to explore their sensitivity to the incorporation of labor market friction. Our estimation obtains a significantly smaller-than-unity elasticity of substitution. This result is consistent with labor input measured along the extensive and intensive margin, and in both competitive and imperfect labor markets. Technological progress tends to be purely labor-augmenting, with the average growth rate around 2% per year. These findings are robust to alternatively constructed data sets and different estimation strategies.     

Estimation of technical inefficiency effects using panel data and doubly heteroscedastic stochastic production frontiers

In previous studies, measures of technical inefficiency effects derived from stochastic production frontiers have been estimated from residuals which are sensitive to specification errors. This study corrects for this inaccuracy by extending the doubly heteroscedastic stochastic cost frontier suggested by Hadri (1999) to the model for technical inefficiency effects. This model is a stochastic frontier production function for panel data as proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995). The study uses, for illustration of the techniques, data on 101 mainly cereal farms in England. We find that the correction for heteroscedasticity is supported by the data. Both point estimates and confidence intervals for technical efficiencies are provided. The confidence intervals are constructed by extending the “Battese-Coelli” method reported by Horrace and Schmidt (1996) by allowing the technical inefficiency to be time varying and the disturbance terms to be heteroscedastic. The confidence intervals reveal the precision of technical efficiency estimates and show the deficiencies of making inferences based exclusively on point estimates. First version received: March 2000/Final version received: Oct. 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors are grateful to the Economic and Social Research Council for access to their Data Archive which has provided the data for this research. We are indebted to Badi Baltagi and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveat applies.     

估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析

人民币汇率制度改革的主要内容之一是为人民币汇率估算一个适度的弹性范围。本文在F-M模型的基础上构建了一个能够较好地拟合我国实际情况的汇率弹性估算模型，并利用这个模型对人民币汇率的弹性进行了实证分析。该模型没有将汇率制度进行机械的分类，而是将不同汇率制度下汇率的弹性看作是从0～1的连续分布。实证分析的结果是人民币汇率的弹性范围应该限定在围绕均衡汇率上下浮动12％以内。     

Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism

Demand elasticities for New Zealand tourism are estimated for 16 different international visitor segments. Segments are differentiated by origin, purpose of visit, and travel style. Elasticities for both international visitor arrivals and on-the-ground expenditure per arrival are estimated for each segment using time-series data. In general, on-the-ground consumption per arrival is more price sensitive than number of arrivals, and Asian market segments are found to be more price sensitive, both in terms of arrivals and on-the-ground expenditure, compared to international visitors from other regions. An application of the results is presented giving the total effect of exchange rate changes on expenditure by international visitors in New Zealand, and management implications are discussed.     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于1995-2011年数据

本文采用基于VAR的Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正（VEC）模型实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的长期静态影响及短期动态影响。结果发现,长期进出口贸易的汇率弹性均不显著,进口的汇率弹性较大,出口几乎无汇率弹性;长期进出口贸易的变化主要由国内外收入决定;短期内,进出口的汇率弹性同为负,即汇率贬值,进出口均增加,汇率升值降低出口的同时,进口也会下降且下降幅度大于出口的减少;而且向长期均衡调整的力度较小。因此说明单纯的汇率调整不能有效改善我国的贸易不平衡问题。     

我国三大经济地带就业弹性的比较--基于面板数据模型(Panel-data model)的实证研究

本文利用面板数据模型（Panel-datamodel）的计量方法，对我国东中西三大经济地带1978～2003年的经济总体就业弹性和非农就业弹性进行估计，揭示了这三个区域经济增长率与就业增长率之间关系的差异，论证了东部地区就业弹性均明显高于中西部地区，并对它们差异的形成原因进行了简要分析。     

水资源定价理论研究

本文对水资源定价理论研究的国内外进程和现状进行了分析,归纳出了未来水资源理论研究沿着定价理论、定价模型、水权交易和水价格弹性等四条主要路径进行,并探讨了国内外研究中存在的主要问题。     

Did federal regulation discourage facilities-based entry into US local telecommunications markets?

In the United States from 2001 to 2006, federal regulations allowed entrants to lease from incumbents at relatively low cost all of the network infrastructure necessary to provide local phone service. These platform entrants could then provide phone service without installing any of their own equipment. Advocates of this policy claimed that it was needed to provide an economically feasible means by which entrants could serve residential customers. Critics contended that the policy substantially deterred loop entry whereby entrants installed their own switching equipment. An analysis of panel data for each state over this period indicates that the policy's critics may have been correct. The cross-price elasticity of loop entry with respect to platform price was roughly 1.0. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that loop entry may have decreased by roughly 20% due to platform entry price reductions.     

Land use for transport projects: Estimating land value

Transportation projects are typically characterized by increased land use, which is a scarce resource of economic value. However, there is a tendency to ignore land value during feasibility studies of transportation projects. This may lead to a reduction in the economic efficiency of a project and to increased land use. This paper presents an economic model, based on the relationship between the elasticity of land price with respect to density, and estimating the future value of land designated for various uses, including transportation projects. The model was applied to transactional data from Israel, and was used for examining the value of land designated for two transport projects within Israel. The conclusions of the study indicate that taking the land value during a feasibility analysis of transportation projects into account, may lead to the consideration of other alternative plans, which may prevent the excessive use of land.