替代弹性、劳动力流动与我国服务业“天花板效应”——基于非均衡增长模型的分析

本文构建二阶段非均衡增长模型,将农业统一纳入分析框架,分析劳动力在我国三次产业间违规律流动现象,进而寻找我国经济服务化进程缓慢的原因和解决办法。研究表明:由于阶段间要素替代弹性不同和服务业存在"天花板效应",我国当前经济服务化路径表现为"去农业化"而非"去工业化",服务业低层次发展现状短期内将无法突破。本文支持中国服务业比重长期过低的主要原因是服务业市场长期局限于本地化市场及其容量的观点,并进一步指出服务业发展所需要的劳动力要素供给不足是导致我国服务业比重长期过低的直接原因。为了加快经济服务化进程,急需解决我国生产者服务业发展滞后的问题。     

中国医疗技术进步趋势及解释

基于1999-2015年OECD专利数据库数据，依据药品专利申请数和医疗设备专利申请数，分析中国医疗技术进步现状与发展趋势。研究结果表明，中国医疗技术进步并不是平稳增长，而是呈现出跳跃式特点。新医疗保险政策出台是导致上述结果的主要原因，其影响往往滞后1~2年。医疗保险通过降低患者的价格敏感度，从而推动医疗技术进步：一方面刺激患者消费更多药品和医疗设备，提高药品和医疗设备的市场利润，刺激厂商加大研发力度；另一方面，强化患者对医疗质量的关注，加剧医院竞相引进医疗设备，激励厂商研发医疗设备。     

Transmission of Nominal Exchange Rate Changes to Export Prices and Trade Flows and Implications for Exchange Rate Policy*

We discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass‐through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. We identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household's utility level. We estimate the two parameters for six non‐EMU European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and the UK) using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach.     

A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition

China adopted a dual-price system shortly after the economic reform started in 1978 to liberalise its price control. This led to the coexistence of both plan and market prices for an identical good in the economy. The conventional demand theory developed based on the pure market economies is not useful in explaining consumers' behaviour in the transitional economies such as China in which both plan and market prices are prevalent. This study develops an alternative demand theory for a dual-price (or dual-track) economy and derives the dual-price Slusky equation that identifies a replacement effect of price liberalisation. This demand theory distinguishes itself from the conventional demand theory and explains the ways in which consumers respond to the price liberalisation during the reform period. The new demand theory shows that the gradual approach to reform is superior to the ‘Big Bang’ approach in terms of reducing the ‘corrected inflation’ during the transition period. The new theory also suggests that the price elasticity of demand is higher in the dual-track system than that in a full market economy, implying that the price elasticity diminishes over the process of price liberalisation. This theory is tested using the Chinese aggregate consumption data.     

How much have been the export products changed from homogeneous to differentiated? Evidence from China, Japan, and Korea

Many international trade theories and evidence suggest that trade in homogeneous and differentiated goods is different, and trade performance depends significantly on the extent of product differentiation. First this paper classifies the three countries' export products using Rauch's [Rauch, J. (1999). Networks versus markets in international trade. Journal of International Economics, 48, 7–35] classification scheme. This paper suggests a sophisticated technique to obtain the extent of product differentiation in a country's export, implied by Dixit and Stiglitz [Dixit, A., & Stiglitz, J. (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product variety. The American Economic Review, 67, 297–308] model in which the smaller is the elasticity of substitution between varieties the greater is the extent of product differentiation. This is an attempt to identify the extent of product differentiation in each country's export basket by estimates of the elasticity of substitution. The estimated elasticities of substitution vary across countries. The most interesting empirical finding is that the China's export structure has been rapidly shaped into differentiated products. However the extent of product differentiation in Japan and Korea's exports has relatively less varied.     

新疆非公经济对就业的影响分析

新疆城乡就业的特点是农村就业比重持续提高,而城镇在不断下降。但非公经济对就业的影响存在显著的城乡差异,农村的非公经济吸纳就业能力虽然在提高,但作用有限;而城镇非公经济在吸纳就业上作用显著。从就业增长潜力看,今后几年,非公经济就业将会超过公有制经济。     

我国第三产业促进就业的实证分析

文章对第三产业的现状及结构变动进行了分析,并通过回归分析等统计方法研究了第三产业及其内部各 行业的发展状况,预测了第三产业在未来五年里吸纳的就业量并给出了政策性建议。     

Is food consumption a good proxy for nondurable consumption?

This paper examines whether there is a discrepancy in estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution using food consumption instead of nondurable consumption data. We show that a discrepancy exists and that the discrepancy increases as nondurable consumption increases.     

通货膨胀传导机制研究——基于货币供给和经济增长的视角

通货膨胀管理是宏观经济的重要内容,通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间互相影响、互相制约。本文利用中国2005年1月～2010年3月度数据构建模型分析,得出结论:(1)短期影响消费者物价指数的因素主要是国内生产总值增长率,长期控制消费者物价指数上涨的要素主要是货币的供给;(2)宏观经济形势稳定条件下通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间具有长期协整关系;(3)消费者物价指数对自身的波动具有较强的累积效果,经济增长贡献了消费者物价指数波动的55%,而广义货币的这一比例仅为18%;(4)中国货币收入的真实需求弹性为1.152,这一数据远高于发达国家的水平。文章最后给出了相应的政策性建议。     

时变弹性生产函数生产率分解公式及其政策含义

本文基于时变弹性生产函数,推导出经济增长来源于资本、劳动力、中性技术进步和偏向性技术进步贡献度之和;索洛余值在数值上等于中性技术进步贡献度与偏向性技术进步贡献度之和,也等于资本生产增长率与劳动生产增长率的加权和,其权数分别为资本和劳动时变产出弹性。研究认为,提高劳动收入份额,有利于促进经济向集约型发展方式转变。