Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

COEFFICIENT CHANGE,PRICE EFFECTS,AND IMPLICIT ELASTICITIES: ESTIMATING MICROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OVER TWO TIME PERIODS

This paper presents and estimates an input–output model in which input coefficient changes are functions of changing prices. The model produces results that mirror the characteristics of input demand functions based on the model of cost minimization subject to producing a desired level of output. It does not rely on the specification of a functional form for input coefficients, and it does not require the use of assumptions regarding the elasticity of substitution. Instead, it allows the actual price and coefficient changes that occur between periods to identify the implicit elasticities and own- and cross-price derivatives. Using this model, it is shown how accurate measures of price effects, including the full array of own and cross-elasticities of demand, can be estimated for models comprising up to 15 sectors given data for only two time periods.     

Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS

We offer new evidence on earnings volatility of men and women in the United States over the past four decades by using matched data from the March Current Population Survey. We construct a measure of total volatility that encompasses both permanent and transitory instability, and that admits employment transitions and losses from self employment. We also present a detailed decomposition of earnings volatility to account for changing shares in employment probabilities, conditional variances of continuous workers, and conditional mean variances from employment entry and exit. Our results show that earnings volatility among men increased by 15% from the early 1970s to mid 1980s, while women's volatility fell, and each stabilized thereafter. However, this pooled series masks important heterogeneity in volatility levels and trends across education groups and marital status. We find that men's earnings volatility is increasingly accounted for by employment transitions, especially exits, while the share of women's volatility accounted for by continuous workers rose, each of which highlights the importance of allowing for periods of non-work in volatility studies.     

Diversify and prosper: Peasant households participating in emerging markets in northeast rural China

Following the sequence of radical rural reforms commencing in 1978, many peasant households in the People's Republic of China (PRC) have been actively diversifying away from time-honored grain production. This article examines the microlevel rewards accruing to a sample of village households located in the northeast province of Liaoning. In particular, we identify and then measure how such diversification affects household income, the level of employment, and the returns to labor. Two explanatory variables are constructed as surrogates for income-source diversification in a series of household production functions. Our results provide robust evidence that households that move from grain enhance significantly several indicators of their economic well-being.     

Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles

This paper uses U.S. monthly industrial production employment data between 1964 and 2000 to examine the dynamic labor adjustments of production workers and nonproduction workers in both the short and long-run. The results from the short-run analysis show that the dynamic adjustment of production workers is consistent with business cycles. However, the adjustment of nonproduction workers is relatively fixed, lags behind the shocks over business cycle changes, and exhibits the quasi-fixed factor property. In the long-run, we found that nonproduction workers and production workers are cointegrated indicating that the two series are in long-run equilibrium.First version received: March 2002/Final version received: November 2003We would like to thank James McClure, participants in the Economics Department seminar series at Ball State University, and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.     

企业招聘和培训的策略

富有成效的员工招聘和培训是企业人力资本运作的基础,也是企业长期发展的重要保证。企业招聘和培训策略的制定应立足于企业自身的文化和价值观,并以有利于企业长期健康发展为前提。     

新疆当前就业形势及存在问题分析

充分就业是全面建设小康社会的一个重要目标。2006年新疆就业形势好于往年,但劳动力充分就业的需求与劳动力总量增加的矛盾突出;劳动者素质与就业需求不相适应的结构性矛盾突出;大中专毕业生尤其是少数民族毕业生就业形势依然严峻。针对这些问题,本文提出了一些解决新疆就业问题的对策建议。     

城镇劳动力市场雇佣关系的演化及影响因素

本文利用跨度为二十年(1988年到2007年)的微观家计数据,分析了我国城镇地区雇佣关系在经济转型时期从单一固定工向多元灵活雇佣关系转变的过程。将我国城镇地区的雇佣关系分成四种类型,探讨了雇佣关系构成从1988年到2007年的变化及其影响因素,以及各种因素的相对重要性。分析发现,从1988年开始,我国的雇佣关系构成中灵活雇佣比重开始逐步上升,到2002年,短期雇佣、无合同雇佣等灵活雇佣形式的比重达到一个较高水平,进入2007年,稳定雇佣关系的比重略有回升。扩展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解所得结果表明,从1995年到2002年,劳动力市场灵活性增强主要受到转型过程中制度变迁等不可观测因素的影响;进入2007年,稳定的雇佣关系比重略有回升,放松管制和市场深化的效应逐渐释放殆尽,特征变量对提高雇佣稳定性的作用开始显现。     

蓝色经济区战略下产业升级与就业调整——基于青岛市产业结构与就业结构的相关性分析

半岛蓝色经济区战略上升为国家战略加快了青岛市产业结构的调整步伐,也为就业结构提供了新的调整和拓展空间。通过建立模型对1988-2010年青岛市产业结构和就业结构数据进行实证分析检验,结合半岛蓝色经济区战略确立的目标进行预测,得出蓝色经济区产业结构升级应坚持:第一产业重点提升水产渔业的发展水平;在依托海洋低耗能、低排放和高效益的第二产业取得突破性发展;加强高等教育、海洋研发作为金融、法律、服务业等第三产业发展的力量源泉。在蓝色经济区建设中,就业结构变动与产业结构变动相互影响,就业结构调整方向预测数值应符合蓝色经济产业升级的需求预测指标。     

基于独立性的上市公司独立董事制度研究

独立性是独立董事制度的灵魂,没有独立性,独立董事作为监督者的作用将不复存在。独立性包括形式上的独立和实质上的独立两个方面。形式上,除担任董事外,独立董事与公司不能有其他形式的联系。只有形式独立是不够的,还必须保证实质独立,独立董事应以第三者立场发表意见,不受重要股东,公司经理层及其他利益相关者的影响,客观公正的行使职责。我国上市公司引入独立董事制度虽然有十多个年头,但是独立董事独立性的缺失使得这一制度实施的实际效果并不是很理想。