On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

市场化进程、国企改革策略与公司治理结构的内生决定

本文以2001年至2003年间中国地方政府控制的上市公司为对象,考察了各地区市场化进程差异以及中央政府基于公司规模和行业特征采取的"抓大放小"和"战略调整"的国企改革策略对公司最终控制人政府级别、政府持股比例以及政府持股方式的影响。研究发现:在市场化进程越快的地区,上市公司更可能由低级别地方政府控制、政府持有股权比例更低;并且,大规模公司、管制性行业公司更可能由高级别地方政府控制、政府持有股权比例更高。但在政府持股方式上,市场化进程的影响并不稳定,而大规模公司由政府直接持股的可能性更小,并且管制性行业与非管制性行业公司无显著区别。这些结果表明,地区市场化进程以及中央政府采取的国企改革策略对公司治理结构的形成具有重要影响(主要体现在政府级别和持股比例上)——地区市场化进程减轻了地方政府控制公司的经济动机,而国企改革策略使得地方政府具有控制大规模公司和管制性行业公司的政治动机。上述结论在剔除深圳和上海地区公司以减轻样本特殊性问题、采用工具变量法以减轻内生性问题以及一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。     

Risk-sharing and Growth: The Role of Precautionary Savings in the "Education" Model

While the "risk amelioration" literature suggests that risk-sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth, models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion. We solve, by means of numerical techniques, a model based on human capital accumulation through education, and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education, which is the "growth leading" activity. Hence, we establish a result favourable to financial integration, even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role.     

Endogenous innovation under New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model using the framework of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We incorporate the Schumpeterian approach that generates seemingly sticky prices and reinterpret the Calvo mechanism from the perspective of Bertrand competition and successful entrepreneurs. Our results demonstrate that both positive productivity shocks and endogenous innovation have a negative effect on subsequent endogenous innovation. These self-destructive effects of endogenous innovation might account for the IT productivity paradox and productivity slowdown seen in advanced countries. Furthermore, it is shown that there are both neutral and non-neutral properties of monetary policy shocks. They are neutral in terms of the growth effect, but non-neutral in terms of the level effect. In particular, expansionist monetary policies are desirable to facilitate endogenous innovation.     

民间资本供求与民营企业融资:对陕西的实证分析

本文建立在调研和有关资料基础上对陕西现实及潜在的民间资本供求进行测算分析,从总量和结构等方面实证了民间资本供给充足、而民营经济对民间资本的需求欲望非常强烈这一结论,要解除民间资本供求的市场失灵现象,就必须构建以"民资、民用、民管"为原则的内生性融资机制,建立社区民间金融管理组织和社区民间金融市场,选择内生性融资方式,创新其融资产品,实现民间资本供给与民营经济对其需求的有效对接.     

External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?

Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an OLG model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and FDI inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications.     

Redistribution and growth: Pareto improvements

This paper analyzes the relationship between income distribution and economic growth. It introduces heterogeneous households who have preferences for leisure into Grossman and Helpman's model of endogenous growth (in which income distribution has no effect on economic growth). Wealth distribution affects the endogenous rate of growth as the labor supply of each individual responds inversely to his permanent income. When the labor Engel curve is concave (convex), unequal wealth distribution decreases (increases) the rate of growth. Pareto-improving-growth-enhancing wealth redistributions are characterized.     

董事会的独立性是否影响公司绩效?

在董事会和公司绩效的研究框架内,代理理论和乘员理论就独立董事比例的绩效后果产生了分歧,前者认为独立董事通过降低代理成本促进绩效,后者则认为董事会效率会因独立董事比例的提高而下降。利用中国资本市场的数据,本文系统地检验了董事会独立性和公司绩效的关系,为这一争议提供了证据。研究发现,独立董事比例和公司绩效显著正相关,这种相关性在控制内生性问题后仍然成立,并且发现当大股东缺乏制衡时,独立董事比例对公司绩效的促进作用会显著降低,这一结果表明代理理论对中国资本市场的公司治理更具解释力。我们还进一步就独立董事的背景和公司绩效的关系进行了检验,研究发现独立董事的声誉能够显著地促进公司绩效,而其行业专长、政治关系以及经济管理背景与公司绩效并无相关性。     

Schumpeter's circular flow,learning by doing and cyclical growth

A two-sector growth model with endogenous technical change is presented. Concerning technical change, we assume that it is reflected by increases in the stock of human capital which are acquired through learning by doing. As a result, it turns out that transitory or, using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, persistent oscillations of the economic variables may be the outcome. Thus we are able to show that learning mechanisms alone may be sufficient to destroy the circular flow as described by Schumpeter.     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在"跷跷板"关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。