The impact of endogenous tax treaties on foreign direct investment: theory and evidence

Abstract .  This paper investigates the effect of tax treaties on bilateral stocks of outward FDI. For this purpose we employ a numerically solvable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational firms to study the impact of tax treaties on both welfare and outward FDI. The model indicates under which factor endowment configurations countries gain in welfare when implementing a tax treaty. This motivates an empirical specification of the endogenous selection into implementing new tax treaties. Using data of bilateral OECD outward FDI between 1985 and 2000, we find a significant negative impact of newly implemented tax treaties on outward FDI stocks.     

Does the Choice between Wage Inequality and Unemployment Affect Productivity Growth?

Abstract. We present a non-scale continuous-time overlapping-generations growth model that provides an explanation for why economies with relative wage rigidity feature higher unemployment, but not slower productivity growth, than economies with flexible wages. The compression of the wage distribution associated with relative wage rigidity slows down human capital accumulation and growth ceteris paribus . But unemployment among the low-skilled workers strengthens the incentives to invest in human capital and, hence, growth. The two effects are offsetting, and growth is independent of the prevailing degree of relative wage rigidity. This knife-edge result is robust with respect to some modifications of the model.     

Distribution dynamics and convergence in Latin America: A non-parametric analysis

This paper examines the dynamics of income distribution and convergence in Latin America during the period 1960 to 2000. Our results, based on the intradistribution dynamics approach, reveal a “twin peaks” dynamics, which echoes findings reported for the OECD, the Asia Pacific Basin and worldwide. Notable differences, however, are found between the income dynamics in Latin America and in these other regions. Further, our findings indicate that physical capital investment and health capital serve to explain Latin America’s “twin peaks” polarization. Other factors, such as geographical proximity, trade openness and human capital, are also found to help explaining it to some extent. We gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of the referee.     

Public good provision and the Smith Process

An existing public good provision mechanism known as the Smith Process (SP) is extended to allow for non-zero fixed cost, non-constant marginal cost and imperfectly divisible output. Two versions of SP are considered: unrestricted (USP) and restricted with a unanimity rule (RSPU). USP implements efficient choice provided the gap between marginal and average cost is sufficiently low. RSPU relaxes the conditions for efficient implementation but increases the set of equilibria involving inefficient choice. Furthermore, if weakly dominated strategies are eliminated, then non-provision is no longer an equilibrium under RSPU but continues to be one under USP.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Income comparisons and attitudes towards foreigners - Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a natural experiment related to the German re-unification to address whether disutility from income comparisons affects attitudes towards foreigners. Our empirical approach rests upon East German individuals with West German relatives and friends. We use the exogenous variation of wealth of West Germans shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall as an instrument to identify the effect of disutility from income comparisons on East Germans’ attitudes. We find robust evidence that East Germans express more negative attitudes towards foreigners, particularly from low-wage countries, if they worry about their economic status compared to better-off West Germans.     

Distance and trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects

This paper provides evidence supporting Grossman's (Comments on Alan V. Deardorff, Determinants of bilateral trade: Does gravity work in a neoclassical world?. In: Jeffrey A. Frankel (Ed.), The regionalization of the world economy. Chicago: University of Chicago for NBER; 1996) claim that not only transport costs but also unfamiliarity can explain the negative correlation between geographic distances and bilateral trade volumes. A gravity model that controls for as many natural causes of trade as possible reveals that countries high in uncertainty-aversion (based on Hofstede's survey) export disproportionately less to distant countries (with which they are presumably less familiar). More important, this result is mainly driven by differentiated products, not by products with international organized exchanges or with reference prices. For transport costs alone to explain such a trade pattern, one would have to assume that distance-related ad valorem transport costs are higher when a trade route originates from a high uncertainty-aversion country, which is unlikely. This trade pattern is easy to explain, however, if one accepts that geographic distance is a proxy for unfamiliarity and that exporters in high uncertainty-aversion countries are more sensitive to informational ambiguity. A further result is that high uncertainty-aversion countries trade less and thus grow poorer in the long run, which suggests that cultural factors are as important as geographic ones in determining trade openness and prosperity.     

Endogenous trade bloc formation in an asymmetric world

This paper investigates how variations in endowments and the structure of preferences impact on the coalition formation decisions of asymmetric countries. There exist relatively few general results on the relationship between country characteristics and trade bloc formation. Here, new light is shed on this issue by systematically simulating bloc formation and by explicitly analysing the blocking behaviour of coalitions. A general equilibrium model of world trade is implemented with equilibrium coalition formation being modelled using the equilibrium concept of the core. It is found that global free trade is observed when all countries are similar. Customs unions tend to form between countries with ‘adjacent’ consumer preferences or with ‘adjacent’ endowments of their export commodity. Finally, in contrast to the existing literature but consistent with observed behaviour, it is found that free trade areas often Pareto dominate customs unions, provided consumer preferences differ sufficiently.     

Global influences on UK manufacturing prices: 1970-2000

We introduce the first consistent series of domestic-product and related import price indices at the industry level for the UK, using the data to analyse both domestic and international determinants of UK manufactured product prices. Foreign influences on UK prices in domestic markets are always present, but domestic cost movements dominate. We show that the pass-through of world-price, tariff and exchange rate changes into product prices is partial in general and varies markedly between product categories. Standard tariff and exchange rate theories overstate price responses to global pricing determinants and fail to allow for variation between industrial sectors. Such theories can mislead when used for policy analysis and prediction.