基于GASA算法的提前或拖期问题优化

针对企业生产的提前 /拖期问题,提出了提前 /拖期问题的数学模型,在此基础上,利用GASA混合优化策略优化之,既保留了传统遗传算法能很快达到最优值领域的优点,又通过结合模拟退火算法大大改善传统遗传算法在后期的收敛性。     

行为资产组合理论：理论基础、内容及对异象的解释

行为金融理论于20世纪80年代兴起，它通过将行为因素引入决策过程从而对传统的金融理论做出补充。谢夫林(Shefrin)和斯特曼(Statman)在现代资产组合理论的基础上提出了行为资产组合理论，该理论是行为金融的理论基础之一。行为资产组合理论的基础包括安全第一组合理论和安全、潜力和期望理论。内容分为单一账户资产组合理论和多重账户资产组合理论。行为资产组合理论能够对市场中的一些异象做出合理的解释。     

纳斯达克100指数跟踪股的产品与运作解析

本文深入分析了Nasdaq100指数跟踪股(简称QQQ)这只美国著名的交易所交易基金(ETFs)的产品设计、基本特征、组织架构及其双重交易模式和由此而生的独特的套利机制,总结了Nasdaq100指数跟踪股的独到的金融创新之处,为理解和借鉴国外ETFs的产品创新和成功运作的经验提供了一个有益的帮助。     

ERP中工资管理子系统的解决方案研究与实现

提出典型中小制造企业信息化建设中ERP系统整体解决方案,分析了定单式中小企业ERP系统中工资管理子系统与其它子系统的联系、系统体系结构和系统开发实现的关键技术,并重点讨论了基于B/S架构ERP系统中工资管理子系统开发中的一些关键技术.     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

Bargaining Outcomes with Double-Offer Arbitration

Increasingly, arbitration is becoming used to resolve bargaining disputes in a variety of settings. Reducing dispute rates is often listed as a main goal in designing arbitration mechanisms. Conventional arbitration and final-offer arbitration are two commonly used procedures, but theoretical examinations of these arbitration procedures show that disputants’ final bargaining positions do not converge and disagreement is likely. This article contains results from a set of experiments designed to compare bargaining outcomes under the two commonly used arbitration procedures with outcomes under an innovative procedure called “double-offer” arbitration (Zeng et al., 1996). This procedure requires that disputants make two final offers at impasse: a primary and a secondary offer. The arbitrator evaluates the pairs of offers using a linear criterion function, and theory suggests the secondary offers converge to the median of the arbitrator’s preferred settlement distribution. Because the procedure’s rules are that convergence of offers generates a settlement at those offers, this theoretical convergence result implies that arbitration is not needed in the end. Experimental results indicate that dispute rates in double-offer arbitration are, on average, about the same as dispute rates in conventional arbitration. However, other results show reason to favor double-offer arbitration. Specifically, in repeated bargaining, there is concern over whether use of an arbitration procedure becomes addictive and makes bargainers more likely to use the procedure in the future-a “narcotic effect.” The data show that double-offer arbitration is non-addictive, whereas both conventional and final-offer arbitration are.     

我国资本市场分形特性研究

任何科学发展,包括社会科学在内,其前沿问题都是非线性问题.但是,由于现行线性模型的简单易行,实际中仍被广泛运用.随着经济行为越来越复杂,只有用动态的非线性模型刻画某些经济现象,才能较好地反映客观现实.近二十年来,作为研究非线性问题科学分支之一的分形理论,也就成了经济学科研究与应用的前沿领域.本文探讨了分形时间序列的基本特点及Hurst指数计算方法,描述了计算时间序列Hurst指数的一般方法,运用R/S分析法分析了我国资本市场的分形特性,通过实例分析,总结了资本市场分形理论的基本内容.     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

面向电子商务的现代物流管理信息系统的开发

结合现代物流技术发展趋势，分析探讨了面向电子商务的现代物流管理信息系统的开发技术路线，关键技术内容，功能体系结构设计及分层逻辑模型设计。     

制度环境评估指标体系研究--兼评湖北省的制度环境

制度环境是制约一国或地区发展的重要因素.建立制度环境评估指标体系具有重要的现实意义.本文在界定制度环境内容的基础上,从市场化程度、信用与法律体系、政府职能转变、对外开放程度、地方文化及居民行为特点等方面构造了制度环境评估指标体系.以该指标体系对湖北的制度环境与江苏、浙江、广东的制度环境进行比较研究.