金融发展、资产泡沫与实体经济: 一个文献综述

近年来的金融危机和不同国家的发展路径促使经济学家们反思资产泡沫与实体经济之间的关系。过去几年主流经济学中开始涌现出一些富有洞见的相关理论和实证文献。本文通过一条逻辑主线对基于这些文献的进展进行了系统评述。资产泡沫产生于金融市场的不完全性,它既影响实体经济的效率和增长,也影响实体经济的波动。其中,金融发展程度(金融市场的完全性)扮演了重要的角色。金融发展程度会影响到资产泡沫的产生;而资产泡沫既可以缓解经济中的扭曲,也可以加剧经济中的扭曲,使得经济增长偏离黄金律。制度质量则会强化金融发展程度的影响。金融发展程度与制度质量在开放经济的情况下,还会影响到资本在国际间的流向和结构,从而对实体经济的增长和波动产生更复杂的影响。本文中所综述的理论洞见对于中国这类金融市场欠发达、正面临金融自由化与结构转型的新兴市场经济体尤其具有重要的政策含义。本文最后讨论了中国金融改革和金融发展中需要注意的一些问题。     

Developmental Rent Management Analysis: Learning,Upgrading, and Innovation

In this article, I construct an original analytical framework, called the developmental rent management analysis (DRMA), for the analysis of rents and rent management. This framework is based on the premise that successful rent management depends on political and institutional arrangements to produce incentives and pressures for technical upgrading and innovation. This is because, while rents are created for a variety of purposes, rent outcomes — whether growth-enhancing or growth-reducing — depend on a set of political, institutional, and market conditions that take place formally and informally. Therefore, the key objective of the DRMA framework is to understand how a country’s politics, institutions, and industries are configured to incentivize and compel industrial upgrading. Thus, DRMA enables a broader and more complex understanding of the various factors at play in the process of development. I provide an illustrative application of the DRMA framework using the Vietnamese experience of adopting third-generation technology in the telecommunications industry.     

European farmers and participatory rural appraisal: A systematic literature review on experiences to optimize rural development

Farmers are those who daily supervise and manage rural areas, but still their collaborations with those institutions entitled to decide the transformation of these territories are not managed properly. The experiences of participatory processes with the involvement of farmers are analyzed in many agricultural studies. A systematic review has allowed us to analyse experiences related to 35 participation paths aimed at rural regions’ development. The analysis has been made on the basis of 14 variables describing the path followed and its purpose, the agricultural holding involved and the areas surveyed.The work has the objectives to identify some strengths and weaknesses in the involvement of farmers in decision-making and the strengths and weaknesses of the processes themselves. The review has shown that too often in participatory processes farmers are considered only as a source of information to be used by researchers rather than as active participants in the choices for the protection, management and transformation of the rural territory. An effective participatory rural appraisal requires greater empowerment of farmers. In general, compared to the methods and tools used, farmers are wary of paths that are too complex and prefer the use of low-tech tools. This result can be attributed to the farmers’ demand of direct contact with the researchers to build trust and also to the average age of European farmers, which is pretty high.In participation contexts, it is not possible to establish standardized methods and tools, because each process should be tailored for the community that expresses it. Nevertheless, the work has highlighted the need to establish some minimum principles to avoid considering unsuccessful some participation paths which, in reality, have been only scarcely participated. In the work, these principles have been presented through the development of key questions, to which those who design the path for an effective engagement of agricultural stakeholder must respond: representativeness, empowerment, empirical knowledge, relationships, group type, numerosity and involvement stage.     

Resilience: Lessons from banks that have braved the economic crisis—And from those that have not

Resilience – a firm's ability to adapt, endure, quickly bounce back, and then thrive despite a catastrophic event – addresses diverse managerial constructs including performance (Carmeli & Markman, 2011). Our exploratory study expands this line of research by making two contributions: first, we develop and test a new revelatory measure for resilience – VOLARE – combining financial performance measures with volatility data. Then, applying this new measure to the financial industry, from 2002 to 2011, we identify highly resilient international financial services firms (IFSFs; e.g., banks) and compare them with less resilient IFSFs. Second, we assess three factors – bank size, home-market solidity, and product and market complexity – that the literature has traditionally shown to be highly predictive of banks’ performance. Consistent with our expectations, the results corroborate that VOLARE is complementary to, but distinct from, traditional financial measures of firm performance. We explain these deviations from traditional studies and suggest further research topics.     

Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?

This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policy and to the role of US monetary and regulatory policy in the run up to the Subprime mortgage crisis. There are two main results. First, interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available instrument, monetary policy faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. This trade off is both qualitative and quantitative in response to contractionary shocks, while it is only quantitative in response to positive shocks. We show that a second instrument, such as a Pigouvian tax on credit to households on the demand side of the market, is needed to restore efficiency in the economy when both frictions are at work.     

How did investor‐state dispute settlement get a bad rap? Blame it on NAFTA,of course

In the short history of the US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) programme, there have been no instances of dispute settlement cases initiated against the United States by firms from BIT countries. The NAFTA experience changed that. Where other studies have only hinted at the reasons for NAFTA controversies, this paper makes clear three causal factors: (i) changing patterns and intensity of FDI, (ii) the application of those rules to developed countries amid those changing FDI patterns and (iii) ambiguities in ISDS rules themselves. The paper explores these and traces the ways in which lessons of the NAFTA have been instrumental in changing the pursuit of investment protection agreements. BITs used to be uncontroversial, but the NAFTA focused attention on reforms to ISDS that maintain the utility of BITs in the governance of FDI, without creating a legal structure for simply challenging the state.     

The Rise of Ethnicity under China's Market Reforms

This article investigates the dynamic relationship between economic development and the identification of ethnic minorities and argues that identification of China's ethnic minorities manifests itself at various levels. At the national level, the introduction of market mechanisms and economic growth initiatives have been concentrated predominantly in the coastal areas and metropolises, and are thus increasingly distant from ethnic minorities, a disproportionate majority of which reside in the western parts of the country. This growing regional disparity has placed ethnic regions and populations in a distinctly unfavourable position in terms of economic engagement and development. Regional development in the ethnic‐minority homelands has been characterized by the representation and reinvention of ethnic cultural traditions and the production of cultural economies. Unequal economic growth has resulted in a massive migration of ethnic minorities to the cities. Simultaneously, urban development has reinforced ethnic identity, particularly through urban labour‐market development. Urban and regional development has, in turn, led to the production, activation and magnification of ethnic identity at individual and group levels.     

煤炭企业“主动安全型”员工培育研究

阐述了＂主动安全型员工＂培育的作用及内涵,并系统分析了煤炭企业员工安全意识及保安能力上的不足,提出了从＂意识强化、技能升级、行为管控、文化熏陶＂等4种关键环节上培育主动安全型员工的方法。     

国际金融危机下广东经济现状与发展趋势评析

广东的经济总量多年领先全国，遭遇国际金融危机后的广东经济呈现出若干特点，包括第三产业、民营经济、区域协调、科技进步等因素都展示了广东对危机的抵抗力，其发展趋势的后劲也可以预期。先行一步的广东对我国区域经济发展理念和规律的认识具有启示作用。