强势美元政策：有效性检讨与可持续性分析

强势美元政策保证了外资对美国的强劲流入,支撑了美国的低通货膨胀,弥补了美国的储蓄———投资缺口和对外贸易逆差,巩固了美元的全球霸权地位,总之,强势美元政策促进了美国的经济增长。由于美国存在对强势美元政策的依赖性及美元的全球霸权地位没有受到实质性的挑战,在可预见的将来,强势美元政策仍会持续也仍可持续,美国仍将实行强势美元政策。     

伯南克货币政策主张及其影响-分析与预期

伯南克已于2006年2月1日接替格林斯潘担任了美国联邦储备理事会主席。本文分析伯南克的货币政策主张特征,比较这些主张与格林斯潘和其任内联储货币政策主张、决策风格的异同,并据此预期伯南克货币政策主张及其对联储货币政策的影响。     

日本结束量化宽松货币政策的影响分析

2006年3月9日,日本银行宣布终止实行了5年之久的“量化宽松”政策。朝最终升息跨出了第一步,原因是日本经济从2005年起出现了比较明显的好转,如果再继续实行超宽松的货币政策有可能引发通胀。日本央行这次顶住了政府压力做出改变货币政策的决定, 凸现其独立性进一步提高。在目前状况下日本货币政策的改变对日本经济和全球经济都具有积极影响,对资金流动和金融市场的影响更大,尤其是将提高日本金融市场的吸引力。     

财政国库管理制度改革对政府财务行政改革的推动作用

当前我国行政管理体制改革和财政国库管理制度改革正在稳步地推进,按照十六届三中全会的精神,我国的改革已到了整体协调推进的新时期.而财政国库管理制度改革是为政府行政提供资金的一项制度保证,其本身就是政府的一项财务行政活动,因此,财政国库管理制度改革作为我国财政领域的一项重要的制度创新,必将对我国的政府财务行政改革产生深远的影响.     

"三农"问题的财政对策思考--治标更要治本

"三农"问题是我国转型时期社会、经济、人口、资源、环境等诸多问题的汇聚点,是关系我国改革、发展和稳定大局的重大问题.解决"三农"问题不能满足于一时的效果,而是要考察其更深层次的原因,达到治标与治本相结合.为此,本文提出发展城市经济以吸纳农村劳动力;加大农村教育投入,进行农村人力资源开发;以及进行农村制度创新,彻底改善农业和农村发展的外部条件等财政经济对策以求得"三农"问题的最彻底解决.     

Texas 9-1-1: Emergency telecommunications and the genesis of surveillance infrastructure

Infrastructures of surveillance—everyday, taken-for-granted, institutionalized and technically mediated practices which identify, observe, and analyze individual actions—permeate society. These infrastructures mediate the production of social knowledge and action toward individuals. This article examines the genesis of one such infrastructure, namely the coordinated practices of identifying and locating mobile phone users during emergency (9-1-1) calls. Implementing this infrastructure has entailed creating and coordinating systems to locate wireless phones, to deliver the emergency calls to the appropriate service agency, and to deliver appropriate services to the emergency event. This implementation has occurred within historically specific regulatory, political, cultural, technological, and economic contexts and has specific implications for general surveillance practice. Focusing primarily on the state of Texas, this article examines the development of systems which store and deliver individuals’ geographic location. It argues that, despite privacy laws tightly restricting the use of information generated in the 9-1-1 process, and despite the special purpose to which the 9-1-1 system is dedicated, the wireless 9-1-1 initiative has created the infrastructure for a general purpose locational surveillance infrastructure capable both of surveilling broad patterns of activities and of responding to particular individuals. Moreover, the infrastructure is more available to police agencies and to well-established and well-funded corporate entities than to grass roots organizations. This trend is driven by the need to coordinate a national emergency response system within a fractured telecommunication industry, by the desire of marketers to understand and address their customers’ habits of mobility, and by an increasing willingness of police agencies to include widespread surveillance under the rubric of “emergency services.” Policy responses such as greater ability to opt out of the surveillance system, public oversight of emergency operations, and greater public access to the infrastructure itself might mitigate the most harmful potential social effects of this infrastructure, while distributing its benefits in a more democratic and egalitarian way.     

基于个税递延政策的企业年金保障水平研究

国家明确以税收优惠的形式鼓励和引导企业和个人参加企业年金计划,并于2014年实施了个税递延政策。基于指标模型构建和数据模拟,本文对我国企业年金在个税递延政策实施前后的保障水平进行了比较,通过参数敏感性分析考察了投资收益、工资增长、退休年龄和缴费比例等因素的影响。研究发现,实施个税递延政策后企业职工的养老保障水平在较大程度上低于政策实施前,但不同性别、不同收入水平和不同缴费比例的企业职工保障水平降低的程度有所差异。收入水平和缴费比例越高的男性职工,个税递延政策实施后保障水平降低的幅度越高,但对女性职工而言,这种影响要弱一些。进一步,可以通过增加投资收益、延迟退休年龄和提升缴费比例等方法来提高企业职工的养老保障水平,这与目前正在进行的一系列改革方向也一致。     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.     

A game of give and take: The introduction of multi-layer (water) safety in the Netherlands and Flanders

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Netherlands and Flanders introduced a risk-based approach to flood risk management (FRM), labelled as multi-layer (water) safety. In contrast to a flood defence approach, risk-based management stresses the need to manage both the consequences and probability of a flood. The concept has developed differently in the two countries, as we conclude from a discursive-institutionalist research perspective. The Netherlands is characterised by a high institutionalization of the traditional flood defence discourse and a more closed policy arrangement, whereas in Flanders, the flood defence discourse is less institutionalized and the arrangement is more open. In both countries we see an opening of the arrangement preceding the establishment of multi-layer (water) safety, but at the same time, actors stress different aspects of the concept in order to increase its compatibility with the existing policy arrangement. In the Netherlands, the focus is on probability management, in Flanders on consequence management. In the Netherlands, multi-layer (water) safety as a concept could be established because it stabilises the system in the short-term by reinforcing the importance of flood defence, whereas in Flanders, policymakers were receptive to the concept because it supports a shift of responsibility towards actors outside traditional water management.