Liquidity and market efficiency: A large sample study

Chordia et al. (2008, hereafter CRS) examine short horizon return predictability from past order flows of large, actively traded NYSE firms across three tick size regimes and conclude that higher liquidity facilitates arbitrage trading which enhances market efficiency. We extend CRS to a comprehensive sample of all NYSE firms and examine the dynamics between liquidity and market efficiency during informational periods. Our results indicate that although all NYSE firms experience an overall improvement in market efficiency across periods of different tick size regimes, this improvement varies significantly across the portfolios of sample companies formed on the basis of trading frequency, market capitalization, and trading volume. After controlling for these factors, we further document a positive association between a continuous measure of liquidity and market efficiency, and show that this effect is amplified during periods that contain new information, as reflected in high adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread.     

Derivative pricing using multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions

In this paper we use multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic (MAGH) distributions, introduced by Schmidt et al. (2006), to show how to price multidimensional derivatives when the underlying asset follows a MAGH distribution. We also illustrate the approach using market data from the BOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange) and the exchange rate of the Brazilian Real vs. US Dollar to price some multidimensional derivatives.     

News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets

This paper studies competition in price discovery between spot and futures rates for the EUR–USD and JPY–USD markets around scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Using both the information shares approach and the common factor component weight approach for futures prices from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as well as deal prices from spot trading on the Electronic Broking Services (EBS), we gauge how foreign exchange spot and futures markets respond to news surprises. The results show that the spot rates provide more price discovery than do the CME futures rates overall; however, the contribution of the futures rates to price discovery increases in the time surrounding macroeconomic announcement releases.     

Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns

Consistent with the post-1962 US evidence by Ang et al. [Ang, A., Hodrick, R., Xing Y., Zhang, X., 2006. The cross-section of volatility and expected returns. Journal of Finance 51, 259–299], we find that stocks with high idiosyncratic variance (IV) have low CAPM-adjusted expected returns in both pre-1962 US and modern G7 data. We also test in three ways the conjecture that IV is a proxy of systematic risk. First, the return difference between low and high IV stocks – that we dub as IVF – is a priced factor in the cross-section of stock returns. Second, loadings on lagged market variance and lagged average IV account for a significant portion of variation in average returns on portfolios sorted by IV. Third, the variance of IVF correlates closely with average IV, and the two variables have similar explanatory power for the time-series and cross-sectional stock returns.     

Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings

This paper analyses lead–lag relationships in sovereign ratings across five agencies, and finds evidence of interdependence in rating actions. Upgrade (downgrade) probabilities are much higher, and downgrade (upgrade) probabilities are much lower for a sovereign issuer with a recent upgrade (downgrade) by another agency. S&P tends to demonstrate the least dependence on other agencies, and Moody’s tends to be the first mover in upgrades. Rating actions by Japanese agencies tend to lag those of the larger agencies, although there is some evidence that they lead Moody’s downgrades.     

Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics

In this paper, we develop a continuous time factor model of commodity prices that allows for higher-order autoregressive and moving average components. We document the need for these components by analyzing the convenience yield’s time series dynamics. The model we propose is analytically tractable and allows us to derive closed-form pricing formulas for futures and options. Empirically, we estimate a parsimonious version of the general model for the crude oil futures market and demonstrate the model’s superior performance in pricing nearby futures contracts in- and out-of-sample. Most notably, the model substantially improves the pricing of long-horizon contracts with information from the short end of the futures curve.     

The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market

I study the information content of bond ratings changes using daily corporate bond data from TRACE. Abnormal bond returns over a two-day event window that includes the downgrade (upgrade) are negative (positive) and statistically significant, although the reaction to upgrades is economically small. Monthly abnormal bond returns around downgrades and upgrades are statistically significant but overstate the magnitude of the reaction relative to two-day abnormal returns. Unlike the bond market, the stock market reaction to upgrades is statistically insignificant. Evidence suggests that the differing inferences on the effect of upgrades in the two markets can be attributed to wealth transfer effects rather than relative market inefficiencies. In the cross-section, the bond market response is stronger for rating changes that appear more surprising, rating changes of lower rated firms, and upgrades that move the firm from speculative grade to investment grade.     

The economic function of credit rating agencies – What does the watchlist tell us?

Credit rating agencies do not only disclose simple ratings but announce watchlists (rating reviews) and outlooks as well. This paper analyzes the economic function underlying the review procedure. Using Moody’s rating data between 1982 and 2004, we find that for borrowers of high creditworthiness, rating agencies employ watchlists primarily in order to improve the delivery of information. For low-quality borrowers, in contrast, the review procedure seems to have developed into an implicit contract á la Boot et al. (2006), inducing the companies “on watch” to abstain from risk-augmenting actions. The agencies’ economic role hence appears to have been enhanced from a pure information certification towards an active monitoring function.     

A compound option approach to model the interrelation between banking crises and country defaults: The case of Hungary 2008

We analyze the Hungarian financial crisis of 2008 in a stochastic framework that advances structural credit risk models for country defaults: by applying compound option theory we consider payments for bailing-out the banking sector together with debt service payments in a joint crisis model. We estimate the model parameters by applying the time series maximum-likelihood approach of Duan (1994) on yield spreads of Hungarian Bonds. We find that difficulties in acquiring funds for debt servicing in combination with high outstanding debt triggered the crisis, rather than problems in the domestic banking sector. The estimated crisis probabilities dramatically rise during 2008.     

Securitization and systematic risk in European banking: Empirical evidence

Using a unique dataset of 592 cash and synthetic securitizations issued by 54 banks from the EU-15 plus Switzerland over the period from 1997 to 2007 this paper provides empirical evidence that credit risk securitization has a positive impact on the increase of European banks’ systematic risk. Baseline results hold when comparing estimated beta coefficients with a control group of similar non-securitizing banks. Building several sub-samples we additionally find that (a) the increase in systematic risk is more relevant for larger banks that repeatedly engage in securitization, (b) securitization is more important for small and medium financial institutions, (c) banks have a higher incentive to retain the larger part of credit risk as a quality signal at the beginning of the securitization business in Europe, and (d) the overall risk-shifting effect due to securitization is more distinct when the pre-event systematic risk is low.