The Original Maturity of Corporate Bonds: The Influence of Credit Rating,Asset Maturity,Security, and Macroeconomic Conditions

We examine the determinants of the new issue maturity of corporate bonds. As credit rating decreases, new bond issues have longer maturities, but substantial variation in maturity within each rating class remains. We seek to explain the variation of new issue maturity within credit classes. We find that asset maturity, security covenants, and macroeconomic conditions influence the new issue maturity of bonds within rating categories.     

Credit risk transfer and contagion

Some have argued that recent increases in credit risk transfer are desirable because they improve the diversification of risk. Others have suggested that they may be undesirable if they increase the risk of financial crises. Using a model with banking and insurance sectors, we show that credit risk transfer can be beneficial when banks face uniform demand for liquidity. However, when they face idiosyncratic liquidity risk and hedge this risk in an interbank market, credit risk transfer can be detrimental to welfare. It can lead to contagion between the two sectors and increase the risk of crises.     

Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking

Central banking is intimately related to liquidity provision to banks during times of crisis, the lender-of-last-resort function. This activity arose endogenously in certain banking systems. Depositors lack full information about the value of bank assets, so that during macroeconomic downturns they monitor their banks by withdrawing in a banking panic. The likelihood of panics depends on the industrial organization of the banking system. Banking systems with well-diversified big banks are less prone to inefficient bank runs because diversification alleviates the information asymmetry. In addition, big banks can self-monitor through publicly observable branch closure. Systems of many small banks form incentive-compatible bank coalitions to emulate the big banks during times of crisis. Such coalitions improve efficiency by monitoring member banks and issuing money that is a kind of deposit insurance—a precursor of central banking.     

国内手机营销渠道演变探析

随着移动通信技术的不断发展和进步,作为移动通信终端产品的手机和人们的生活联系越来越紧密。在不同的技术背景和市场环境下,手机的渠道营销模式也呈现出不同的特点。通过对不同市场阶段的手机营销渠道的归纳和总结,对即将到来的3G时代下的手机营销渠道进行分析和探讨,有助于国内手机营销环节中的运营商、生产商、批发商、零售商更好地把握商机,明确自身在营销渠道中的定位。     

3G时代移动互联网展望

移动通信具有可移动性这一鲜明特点,互联网则是现今信息传播的最重要载体,移动通信与互联网结合产生移动互联媒体,这将是现在乃至未来一段时期内通信的发展趋势。本文将围绕中国移动互联网的现状和发展以SWOT的方式进行讨论,并简要分析。     

A re-examination of the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis

A Re-Examination of the Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis. — This paper applies the Phillips and Hansen estimation and inference procedures to re-examine the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate. The results indicate that the 90-day forward exchange rate is not an unbiased predictor. However, the 90-day forward and future spot exchange rates are cointegrated. Only for the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate is there an error correction representation. Overall, however, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that risk-averse agents in the forward foreign exchange market form expectations rationally.     

EXTREME VALUE AT RISK: A SCENARIO FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper uses the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the extreme losses that are likely to occur during market crashes, in the case of an investor who has long positions in stocks and currencies. The null hypothesis – which tests for normality of asset returns – is rejected due to asymmetry of these returns. We assume that the asymmetric behaviour and volatility of the returns are captured by the shape and scale parameters, respectively, of a GEV distribution. The data set includes stock indices for the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and South Africa, and the South African rand exchange rates against the US dollar observed from 3 January 2005 to 30 December 2009. In addition, we divide this sample period into two periods: the pre‐crisis period, from 3 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 and the crisis period, from 1 January 2008 to 30 December 2009. We compared the estimates of value at risk (VaR) using an extreme value theory (EVT) model, with the estimates derived from the traditional variance–covariance method and found that during the crisis the 99% extreme VaR estimates are more reliable as they lie within the Basel II green zone. These results suggest that, at higher quintiles, the VaR estimates based on EVT are reliable and more accurate than estimates from the traditional method.     

Leverage and growth: Effect of stock options

Previous literature documents a negative relationship between leverage and firm growth. This paper finds that once the incentives provided by stock options are accounted for, leverage does not affect firm growth. The paper also finds that the sensitivity of CEOs’ wealth to stock price (i.e. option delta) instead of leverage has a negative relationship with growth. These findings suggest that incentive contracts that tie managers’ wealth to firm value prevent managers from overinvesting. Thus in presence of options the role of debt as a disciplining mechanism has become less important.     

The role of trade credit in the recent subprime financial crisis

This study tests firms’ financing behavior, especially the causal relation between trade credit and bank credit around the time of the recent subprime financial crises. I find bank credit and accounts payable/receivable are simultaneously determined and there is a substitute/complementary effect between bank credit and accounts payable/receivable. Moreover, I test a cross-sectional response to crisis and find that firms with a more vulnerable financial position (i.e., financially constrained firms) are more likely to be negatively affected by crisis and, in turn, are more likely to cut their supply of credit to customers and increase their use of credit from suppliers.     

Wages, inflation, and mortgage design

By virtue of creating asset-liability mismatch, conventional long-term, fixed-rate mortgage loans inherently introduce excess interest risk to the financial systems. Considering that inflation is in part the reason for this excess interest risk, it seems natural to redesign mortgages in such a way that over time mortgage payments could, at least in part, reflect inflation. In this paper, I show that by allowing payments to adjust to inflation, particularly that of wages, by incorporating a prespecified growth rate into mortgage payments, mortgage loans become more affordable while bank interest spreads become less volatile, making the banking system less unstable.