中国服务业发展悖论——基于“两波”发展模式的研究

本文借鉴最新文献对服务业发展规律的测度方法,用中国1952—2010年的地区面板数据对我国服务业比重变化的长期规律和阶段性特征进行了测度,结果认为:宏观国家层面上,我国服务业比重的变化确实有悖于世界经济整体服务化的趋势;但在地区层面上,我国服务业比重与人均GDP的关系基本符合"服务业比重随经济发展不断上升"的普遍规律,所谓经济服务化的"中国悖论"在地区层面上并不存在;对服务业发展的阶段性特征和地区差异进行分析发现,我国大部分地区仍然处于以传统服务业为主的第一波发展阶段,只有少数地区进入了以现代服务业发展为主导的第二波。文章最后对我国服务业发展规律的成因进行了一般分析和实证检验。     

统筹城乡发展中农民权益保障问题思考——以成都改革为对象的分析

农民问题的核心是农民的权益保障问题。论文对成都统筹城乡改革中有关农民权益保障,包括经济权益、社会权益、政治权益的基本情况进行了调研分析,在经验归纳的基础上指出,在坚持中国共产党及其政府作为制度的整体设计者与公共资源的主体供给者前提下,从农民的权益诉求出发,落实并保障农民的权益。     

旅行社产品质量网络评价系统设计研究

依据绩效感知服务质量度量模型(SERVPERF)以旅游者的旅游知觉为标准对旅行社产品进行评价。评价系统将旅行社产品细化并以旅游产品消费过程为基础,以官方机构为主体,运用网络认证码为保障确保结果的真实性。旨在为旅行社产品质量评价、监督提供可行、可靠的网络评价系统。通过评价使旅游信息更加对称,并对旅行社产品质量改进起到督促作用,对实现旅游企业间的良性竞争具有重要的现实意义。     

由临街地价推算区片价的方法探讨

如何利用临街样点地价推算区片平均地价及基准地价始终是城镇基准地价评估的一个难点。文章利用赤峰市的实际调查数据,分别采用临街贡献率和面积加权两种方法推算区片平均地价,并采用回归分析方法探讨区片价与临街地价之间的关系,结果证明两种方法所推算的区片平均价是基本一致的,而且区片价与临街地价之间呈“反S”曲线关系。     

论美国《公司法》中的经营判断规则

现代公司是资产所有权与经营权二权分离的产物,其经营治理是精英即董事之治。如何在保障股东权益而课于董事在公司经营中必要之义务的同时给予董事在经营中必要的灵活权衡,是公司法的一个大课题。在这方面,美国公司法走得比别的国家远。美国公司法要求董事在公司经营中要承担忠实义务和注意义务,同时为董事提供了经营判断规则,以保障其在尽了必要义务时不因经营失误受到股东攻击和法律非难。我国是市场经济国家,在公司立法方面有必要引入经营判断规则。     

On the dynamic selection of mechanisms for provision of public projects

How do individuals' spatial decisions affect the institutions for public goods provision over time? This paper describes a dynamic model in which the provision mechanism for a public project is itself the object of locational choice of individuals. Individuals in an ongoing society must choose between a location with a Majority Rule mechanism and one with a Voluntary Contribution mechanism. Each mechanism determines a funding decision for a local public project which is repeated over time. Generations of individuals asynchronously supercede their ‘parents’, creating an entry/exit process that allows individuals with possibly different beliefs to enter society. A self-confirming equilibrium (SCE) belief process describes an evolution of beliefs in this society consistent with a self-confirming equilibrium (Fudenberg and Levine, 1993) of the repeated location/provision game. It is shown that the process with belief mutation as new individuals enter society results in a globally absorbing state in which the Majority Rule mechanism is the unique survivor of the two.     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2009—2010年

本文依据中国经济增长与价格形成理论模型以及CMAFM计量模型,分析与预测2009—2010年间中国经济在积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策支持下的复苏过程。本文认为,中国需求管理应该继续采取扩张性政策取向,完成中国经济景气从萧条到繁荣的周期形态转换,并且与中国经济发展的高储蓄—高投资—高增长模式相适应,形成以促进国内投资需求为轴心的政策架构。     

20世纪90年代以来中国经济的动态效率

本文借助于西方宏观经济学中的索洛经济增长模型和拉姆齐 卡斯 库普曼斯模型 ,讨论了宏观经济中最优消费和储蓄的确定机制 ,并得出判断宏观经济运行动态效率的黄金定律以及修正黄金定律标准。同时 ,借助代际交叠模型从理论上探讨了自由竞争经济出现动态无效的可能性。在此基础上 ,我们利用黄金定律规则对中国实际经济运行的动态效率进行了考察 ,认为 2 0世纪 90年代初起中国经济运行处于一种动态无效状态 ,进而我们深入分析了造成中国经济出现动态无效的原因。根据中国经济处于动态无效的事实 ,并结合原因探索 ,我们最后提出了摆脱动态无效困境的若干政策建议。     

Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to simulate the medium-term public debt trajectories of several major emerging market countries. We extend the standard debt sustainability analysis framework so as to more faithfully reproduce these countries’ economic reality in two aspects. First, we allow them to differ in the cyclical stance of their fiscal policy and in their degree of fiscal responsiveness to debt. Second, we explicitly integrate the specific risk premium paid by each country when borrowing in foreign currency. It allows us to evaluate the impact of alternative policies that the government may consider to improve sustainability. The results lead to three policy recommendations: i) a country should consider decreasing its exposure to currency risk only in extreme cases (like Argentina); ii) on the contrary, greater fiscal responsiveness (i.e. stronger fiscal tightening whenever there is a debt increase) could enhance sustainability to a much greater extent; iii) countries with low responsiveness to debt or a poor fiscal consolidation track record should be cautious with countercyclical fiscal policies, as they may trigger an unsustainable debt trajectory in the trough of the economic cycle.     

On estimating long-run effects in models with lagged dependent variables

A common procedure in economics is to estimate long-run effects from models with lagged dependent variables. For example, macro panel studies frequently are concerned with estimating the long-run impacts of fiscal policy, international aid, or foreign investment.Our analysis points out the hazards of this practice. We use Monte Carlo experiments to demonstrate that estimating long-run impacts from dynamic models produces unreliable results.Biases can be substantial, sample ranges very wide, and hypothesis tests can be rendered useless in realistic data environments. There are three reasons for this poor performance. First, OLS estimates of the coefficient of a lagged dependent variable are downwardly biased in finite samples. Second, small biases in the estimate of the lagged, dependent variable coefficient are magnified in the calculation of long-run effects. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the statistical distribution associated with estimates of the LRP is complicated, heavy-tailed, and difficult to use for hypothesis testing. While many of the underlying problems have been long-known in the literature, the continued widespread use of the associated empirical procedures suggests that researchers are unaware of the extent and severity of the estimation problems. This study aims to illustrate their practical importance for applied research.