对会计准则制定模式"三分法"的思考

安然事件爆发后,美国开始重新审视会计准则的制定模式,正当理论界对"原则导向"与"规则导向"的孰优孰劣争论不休时,SEC提出了最优制定模式"目标导向".本文试图对规则导向、原则导向和目标导向的进行评析,并探悉提出目标导向的内幕.最后结合我国国情对我国会计准则制定模式的选择提出一孔之见.     

浅析我国民事判决"执行难"

“执行难”是人民法院执行工作中的焦点问题,也是全社会普遍关注的一个热点话题。法学界对“执行难”的表现、原因、对策等的分析不尽一致。该文结合法学基本理论和我国法院的执行实践,系统地探讨了“执行难”的概念、特点、表现以及其形成原因,并对如何解决“执行难”问题进行了一些探讨。     

财政政策:遵守规则还是相机抉择

2004年10月,诺贝尔经济学奖的颁发,又一次引发了人们对财政政策时间一致性的关注,遵守规则的政策主张似乎又一次回归主流。通过比较英、美等发达市场经济国家财政政策的变迁以及通过分析政策规则与相机抉择不同的理论假设,我认为在制定财政政策时必须两者兼顾。我国现行的稳健(中性)财政政策恰恰体现了这种思想的内涵与本质。     

养老基金投资的谨慎人规则及其在我国社保基金投资管理中的适用

与数量限制模式相比,谨慎人规则的监管模式有利于养老金管理机构根据基金的状况和市场状况确定基金投资政策,提高基金资产分散风险和获取更高投资收益的能力。目前,我国在全国社保基金投资运作中逐步引入谨慎人规则的时机业已成熟,相关法律应逐步放宽对社保基金的投资品种的限制,拓宽投资渠道,主要发挥理事会在社保基金投资运作和风险控制中的核心作用,由理事会根据证券市场的情况独立决定社保基金的投资政策,并通过委托投资合同和委托投资方针,对社保基金投资管理人的投资品种及各品种的比例进行约束。     

以人为本加强新时期的道德建设

以人为本是科学发展观的核心,新时期的道德建设也应该遵循以人为本这一指导思想。以人为本是新时期道德建设的客观要求,是个体利益与社会利益的统一。我们所具有的深厚的历史文化为建设以人为本的道德规范体系提供了有益的养分,同时以人为本的道德建设也体现着时代的进步。这种价值观念体现了人的自我发展与社会发展、自我价值与社会价值的统一。     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns

This paper combines the discrete wavelet transform with support vector regression for forecasting gold-price dynamics. The advantages of this approach are investigated using a relatively small set of economic and financial predictors. I measure model performance by differentiating between a statistically-motivated out-of-sample forecasting exercise and an economically-motivated trading strategy. Disentangling the predictors with respect to their time and frequency domains leads to improved forecasting performance. The results are robust compared to alternative forecasting approaches. My findings on the relative importances of such wavelet decompositions suggest that the influences of short-term and long-term trends are not stable over the full evaluation period.     

Does the Reserve Bank of Australia follow a forward-looking nonlinear monetary policy rule?

ABSTRACT

The conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate, inflation rate and output gap. An important extension to this rule is to incorporate the forward-looking behaviour of central banks, where it is assumed that they target an expected level of inflation instead of its current realised value. Using quarterly observations for the period 1993:1-2018:2, this paper investigates whether the conduct of monetary policy in Australia can be described by a forward-looking linear monetary policy rule, or by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule. In particular, the nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule is analysed in a regime-switching framework using a smooth logistic transition regression model. While the results show that the conventional forward-looking linear monetary policy rule describes the application of monetary policy in Australia reasonably well, the interest rate setting behaviour of the RBA is best described by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule.     

现代治理视域下行政审批机构改革研究

推进行政审批机构改革是新时代完善现代国家治理体系和提升现代国家治理能力的必然要求。行政审批局改革模式的现代治理意涵在于优化配置制度建设主体要素以及重构革新治理主体组织结构,并在制度依据、机制运行和治理效能三个层面建构起改革运行机理。尽管通过集中审批权限、实现"一枚印章管审批"大力提升了审批效率,但行政审批局模式依然面临有悖"职权法定"、纵横协调不足、制度建设不充分和资源配置不合理的四重困境。现代治理视域下,应从树立科学合理的审批改革理念、完善行政审批机构改革的顶层设计以及创新行政审批局具体工作模式等方面不断完善和深化行政审批机构改革。     

商业判断规则对中国公司法的启示

商业判断规则是美国法院对董事注意义务审查的一项重要准则，其内容是任何人要质疑董事的决策需推翻这样一个假定：董事在知悉的基础上，基于善意并相信是为公司的最大利益而做出的决策，否则法官会尊重董事的决策。商业判断规则的产生为公司的董事和他们的行为提供了在商业决策中回避风险的安全港。与之相比，我国公司法中关于董事勤勉义务的规定过于抽象，操作性不强，可以借鉴商业判断规则对其进行完善。