Cities, hinterlands and agglomeration shadows: Spatial developments in Finland during 1880–2004

This paper analyzes long-term spatial developments in Finland by focusing on two predictions of the new economic geography (NEG) models: the increasing persistence of locational patterns and the rising dominance of growth centers. The empirical analysis is based on regional population data from 1880 to 2004. The results support the hypotheses. Evolutions in rank and rank-size distributions during the processes of industrialization and urbanization suggest increasing persistence of regional structures. The analysis of causal processes between population centers and their hinterlands shows that these regions grew hand-in-hand in the pre-war period, whereas agglomeration shadows started to come about during the post-war period.     

论金融理财活动中实施“冷静期规则”的可行性

金融理财是银行近几年来开展的一种新型业务,目前多数国家无调整这种行为的专门法律规范,有关当事人的权利义务多由双方在相关合同中约定。2009年7月,东亚银行（中国）提出了其在理财活动中设立的＂冷静期规则＂在银行业引起广泛关注;而同期,深圳房地产业有关房产商在房屋交易中试行该规则遭遇的失败使人们对其在理财产品领域能否推行产生质疑。法定的冷静期规则源于美国,主要适用于信息不对称情况下发生的交易。由于不同行业交易特点的不同,冷静期规则适用的情况也不同,对异于房屋买卖的理财活动而言,在无相关法律规定情形下,双方当事人可以通过合同约定来实行该规则。     

多哈回合谈判的困局及出路

经过近九个年头的谈判,多哈回合仍然没有任何结果,让人觉得前途暗淡。然而必须看到,多哈回合的胜利完成,一方面,会带来更大的贸易自由化;另一方面,可以抵御日渐抬头的贸易保护主义;而它的失败则会对全球贸易带来严重后果。因此,针对目前的僵局,发达国家应该做出更多让步;小国家则应该组成不同的集团,以集团代表的方式参加各项议题的讨论;而谈判委员会主席的工作和职权则应该受到更多的约束。只有各方都做出调整,谈判才有可能顺利完成。     

WTO规则与我国行政许可原则的确立

目前,有关我国加入WTO的经济贸易法律调整与应对问题,国内学者们已多有论述。而有关我国公共行政领域法律制度的相应协调与变革,则开始成为需要进一步加强研究的课题。行政许可是国家行政管理的重要手段之一,在国内,依法行政的呼声日益高涨,与我国刚加入WTO的国际形势下探索行     

On the dynamic selection of mechanisms for provision of public projects

How do individuals' spatial decisions affect the institutions for public goods provision over time? This paper describes a dynamic model in which the provision mechanism for a public project is itself the object of locational choice of individuals. Individuals in an ongoing society must choose between a location with a Majority Rule mechanism and one with a Voluntary Contribution mechanism. Each mechanism determines a funding decision for a local public project which is repeated over time. Generations of individuals asynchronously supercede their ‘parents’, creating an entry/exit process that allows individuals with possibly different beliefs to enter society. A self-confirming equilibrium (SCE) belief process describes an evolution of beliefs in this society consistent with a self-confirming equilibrium (Fudenberg and Levine, 1993) of the repeated location/provision game. It is shown that the process with belief mutation as new individuals enter society results in a globally absorbing state in which the Majority Rule mechanism is the unique survivor of the two.     

The Evolutionary Rules of Production System

The competition among modem enterprises has been converted from products to capability. As the basis of competition, production system can＇t win the market unless it takes advantage of its capability in competition. Here in this article, the evolutionary rules of production system contributing to the establishment, renovation, reform, invention and promotion of the production of modem enterprises are observed.     

浅析保险法若干制度对渔业保险的借鉴意义

渔业经济近年来发展迅速,但渔业保险却一直停滞不前,目前在我国尚未出台全国性的鼓励和强制开展渔业保险的法律法规,而主要存在商业保险和非商业性互助保障制度两种相结合的保险模式。为了保护渔民的合法权益,有必要借鉴其他相关法律法规的相关制度来制定渔业保险立法。本文拟从《保险法》和《海商法》中的保险利益原则、委付制度两方面加以分析和比较,以期推进我国渔业保险立法和法律实务的发展。     

全球化、资产价格变动与中国货币政策反应——基于泰勒规则的扩展研究

在经济全球化、虚拟化的背景下对泰勒规则进行了扩展研究,分析了利率与汇率、利率与资产价格的相关影响机制;并采用静态模型和基于预期的动态模型对名义利率与通货膨胀水平、产出缺口、汇率、股票价格缺口以及房地产价格缺口之间的关系进行了检验。结果显示,考虑预期因素的动态模型能够达到稳定通货膨胀的作用,短期名义利率对于汇率和资产价格起到了符合经济意义的稳定作用。     

Quantiles as optimal point forecasts

Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as optimal point forecasts under a general class of economically relevant loss functions, which nests the asymmetric piecewise linear loss, and which we refer to as generalized piecewise linear (GPL). The level of the quantile depends on a generic asymmetry parameter which reflects the possibly distinct costs of underprediction and overprediction. Conversely, a loss function for which quantiles are optimal point forecasts is necessarily GPL. We review characterizations of this type in the work of Thomson, Saerens and Komunjer, and relate to proper scoring rules, incentive-compatible compensation schemes and quantile regression. In the empirical part of the paper, the relevance of decision theoretic guidance in the transition from a predictive distribution to a point forecast is illustrated using the Bank of England’s density forecasts of United Kingdom inflation rates, and probabilistic predictions of wind energy resources in the Pacific Northwest.     

论公共和市场两种不同类型的失信惩戒机制及其互补关系

失信惩戒机制是社会信用体系的核心构件之一,完整的失信惩戒机制由公共型失信惩戒机制和市场型失信惩戒机制共同组成.公共型失信惩戒机制使用公权力,可用作政府治理社会和市场信用监管的工具,主要在信控的事后处理区段对严重失信违规的市场主体实施行政处罚,其惩戒力度和震慑力非常强.它虽然只作用于国内,却能覆盖市场和社会领域.市场型失...