论我国证据规则的现状及完善

证据制度是诉讼制度的核心 ,是实现司法公正的必要条件 ,决定着诉讼的最终结果 ,证据规则是证据制度的主要内容 ,但我国缺乏具体的、具有可操作性的证据规则 ,与证据在诉讼中的地位不相称 ,现有的证据规则也不能满足实践的需要 ,本文就我国现有的证据规则的现状和加强证据规则立法的必要性以及如何完善我国证据规则提出看法。     

工程建设企业伦理与道德实践论略

从工程技术伦理、工程职业伦理、工程社会伦理三个方面对工程建设企业伦理与道德选择进行了分析和论证,并从企业文化和价值论的角度阐述了工程建设企业伦理与道德实践中的团队意识、互利互惠、义利并重及公平效率等内容。提出工程建设企业项目管理由于存在价值取向的缺失,常常导致建设工程项目各参与方存在契约方面的不公平,同样带来许多社会问题;提出当前我国建设工程企业伦理与道德实践应坚持以人为本,注重企业员工伦理素质的提升;提出要自觉运用社会主义企业的主导价值观去激励教育员工,着眼于未来发展,把可持续发展的理念作为企业最高的伦理准则,坚持把社会整体性需要作为企业最深远的利益,塑造符合中国特色社会主义现代化建设要求的企业文化,推进企业持续快速发展。     

中国货币政策的福利损失与政策规则选择——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

本文在新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型框架下,运用福利损失函数和脉冲响应方法研究我国最优货币政策规则选择的问题。研究结果表明,货币供应量规则相对于利率规则,使外生冲击对产出和通货膨胀的影响更持久,造成更大的福利损失,因此中央银行的货币政策规则应该逐步从货币供应量规则转向利率规则;在一定条件下,前瞻型利率规则、后顾型利率规则和泰勒规则所造成的福利损失相差不大,从便利的角度出发,中央银行应该选择后顾型利率规则。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM（best worst method）确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明：基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。     

Pattern mining in tourist attraction visits through association rule learning on Bluetooth tracking data: A case study of Ghent,Belgium

The rapid evolution of information and positioning technologies, and their increasing adoption in tourism management practices allows for new and challenging research avenues. This paper presents an empirical case study on the mining of association rules in tourist attraction visits, registered for 15 days by the Bluetooth tracking methodology. This way, this paper aims to be a methodological contribution to the field of spatiotemporal tourism behavior research by demonstrating the potential of ad-hoc sensing networks in the non-participatory measurement of small-scale movements. An extensive filtering procedure is followed by an exploratory analysis, analyzing the discovered associations for different visitor segments and additionally visualizing them in ‘visit pattern maps’. Despite the limited duration of the tracking period, we were able to discover interesting associations and further identified a tendency of visitors to rarely combine visits in the center with visits outside of the city center. We conclude by discussing both the potential of the employed methodology as well as its further issues.     

Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization

This paper compares the properties of interest-rate rules such as simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules) in a basic forward-looking model. By introducing appropriate history dependence in policy, Wicksellian rules perform better than optimal Taylor rules in terms of welfare, robustness to alternative shock processes, and are less prone to equilibrium indeterminacy. A simple Wicksellian rule augmented with a high degree of interest rate inertia resembles a robustly optimal rule, i.e., a monetary policy rule that implements the optimal plan and that is also completely robust to the specification of exogenous shock processes.     

Monetary regime choice in Singapore: Would a Taylor rule outperform exchange-rate management?

A DSGE–VAR approach was adopted to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and to ask if the country had any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. The results showed that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule had a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export-price shocks were the major sources of real volatility while a Taylor rule was preferable when domestic productivity shocks were dominant. The exchange-rate rule also dominated the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.     

NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.     

再论中华存在和发展的根本规律

根据内因和外因关系的原理,中华存在和发展的根本规律表现在两个方面:构成中华整体的三个基本方面即中华自然、中华民族和中华文化之间的对立统一;中华作为一个局部与世界这个整体之间的对立统一。中华的存在和发展,是通过中华根本规律的这两个基本方面互相依存、互相渗透和互相转化来实现的。     

有限政府与有效政府:道德规范构建中的国家与社会

本文对道德规范构建中的国家、社会和个人三者关系问题进行初步探讨,认为政府在道德规范构建中应努力达到有限政府和有效政府相结合的时代要求。