Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions

Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions.     

Optimal granularity for portfolio choice

Many optimization-based portfolio rules fail to beat the simple 1/N rule out-of-sample because of parameter uncertainty. In this paper we suggest a grouping strategy in which we first form groups of equally weighted stocks and then optimize over the resulting groups only. This strategy aims at balancing the trade-off between the benefits from optimization and the losses from estimation risk. We rely on Monte-Carlo simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy, and we derive the optimal group size for a simplified setup. Furthermore, we show that estimation risk also has an impact via the criterion by which the assets are sorted into groups (like the expected excess returns or betas), but does not negate the grouping approach. We relate our work to linear asset pricing models, and we conduct out of sample back-tests in order to confirm the validity of our grouping strategy empirically.     

小农户进入有效粮食供应链的结合点及集成协作原则

通过对小农户二级供应链结构分析,基于有效粮食供应链的结构,提出了小农户进入有效粮食供应链的结合点是作为超市的生产基地、作为特色粮食经营公司的租赁生产者、集结进入大型生产商、协作形成合作社或协会,或通过加入有效电子商务网络平台直接与加工商交易,从而节省交易成本,增强与加工商和批发商之间集成的结构稳定性,小农户遵循有效粮食供应链的集成协作原则是信息共享、风险共担和利益共享,并按不同结合点各有侧重地落实到操作协议上。     

完善我国的出口退税制度——以应对对我国的补贴指控为视角

文中从应对对我国的补贴指控的角度,分析了我国出口退税制度与 WTO 规则不符的根源,并提出了完善这一制度的建议.     

“机会主义”策略及其在我国财政政策规则中的运用?

财政政策既要发挥内在的自动稳定器功能,又要体现政府的政策意图,具有与“机会主义”策略一致的内涵。文章将“机会主义”策略融入财政政策规则,对我国财政政策对通胀和产出的调节是否表现出“机会主义”策略进行了研究,得到的主要结论可以概括为：我国财政政策对通胀和经济增长目标值的关注表现出较强的时变性,且其对经济增长的调节依赖于对经济增速中间目标的偏离程度。当经济增速与中间目标的偏离位于区间[-0.95%,2.85%]内时,财政政策将发挥内生的自动稳定器功能,表现出较强的惰性;而当经济增速与其中间目标的偏离位于该区间外时,财政政策则表现出较强的活性,会对经济增长产生积极的调节作用。     

企业商业信用融资影响因素研究——基于管理人员研究经历的视角

本文以2008-2016年中国A股上市公司为样本,探讨管理人员研究经历对商业信用融资的"净效应"。研究结果表明,管理人员研究经历有助于企业获取更多的商业信用融资;相较于国有企业,管理人员研究经历有助于提升民营企业的商业信用融资;而当民营企业处于法治水平相对滞后的地区时,这种正向影响更为显著。关于作用机理的进一步研究表明,管理人员研究经历是通过强化企业内部控制建设、降低企业财务风险进而提升了企业获取商业信用的能力。     

Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy

Under what conditions central banks can afford to deviate from announced targets without losing their reputation is analyzed. For this, the public must have something like ‘confident expectations' vis-a-vis monetary policy and central banks have to behave accordingly. The paper shows that it can be rational for the public and welfare-increasing for the society to retain ‘confident expectations' instead of switching to rational expectations, when central banks have gained long-run reputation. At the end of the paper, alternative optimal money supply rules are compared in a dynamic optimization framework. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

会计信息违规性失真的治理机制研究

现代企业所有权合约安排决定了经营者分享企业剩余索取权.现代企业会计规则合约安排是政府享有一般通用会计规则制定权、经营者享有剩余会计规则制定权和会计规则执行权、注册会计师享有会计规则监督权;在会计规则监督权弱化条件下,经营者控制了企业剩余的计量.经营者既分享剩余又控制剩余计量导致了会计信息违规性失真.会计信息违规性失真是程序理性观下的信息失真.治理此问题,不能破坏现行的制度均衡,博弈论分析表明,政府加重对注册会计师偷懒(而不是对经营者舞弊)的处罚在长期中可以达到遏制会计信息违规性失真的目的.     

加强非居民税收管理需要引入事实推定规则

本文首先介绍了事实推定规则的含义,然后以案例说明在事实推定规则缺失的情况下非居民税收管理面临的执法窘境,并指出如何引入事实推定规则,最后提出了此规则实施时的限制性规定,以防止基层税务机关滥用本规则侵害纳税人的合法权益。     

The Taylor Rule and “Opportunistic” Monetary Policy

We investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process such that the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively in some circumstances than in others. It seems reasonable that the Federal Reserve would act more aggressively when inflation is high than when it is low. Similarly, it might be expected that the Federal Reserve responds more to a negative than a positive output gap. Although these specifications receive some empirical support, we find that a modified threshold model that is consistent with “opportunistic” monetary policy makes significant progress toward explaining Federal Reserve behavior.