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41.
JULIETA CAUNEDO RICCARDO DICECIO IVANA KOMUNJER MICHAEL T. OWYANG 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2020,52(1):205-228
Forecasts are a central component of policymaking; the Federal Reserve's forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook's inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods, for example, before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric, the output forecasts symmetric prior to the Volcker appointment, and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the Great Moderation. 相似文献
42.
Nicholas Crafts 《Fiscal Studies》2016,37(2):201-223
This paper examines contrasting experiences of the United Kingdom in addressing high public debt to GDP ratios following major wars. A clear message is that interest rate / growth rate differentials were more important than primary budget surpluses for the different outcomes. The debt to GDP ratio fell very rapidly under financial repression following the Second World War but remained stubbornly high despite large budget surpluses with price deflation after the First World War. Implications for policymakers today are that averting price deflation is a high priority and that supply‐side policies that raise growth could play an important part in debt reduction. 相似文献
43.
We model a competitive economy in which production is dependent on labor and a non-renewable resource, the stock of which is inhomogeneous. We solve the model analytically and show how—in infinite time—the economy moves away from an initial balanced growth path (b.g.p.) and towards a mature b.g.p. The characteristics of the initial b.g.p. match historical observations of slowly declining resource price and consumption growth tracking global product. The mature b.g.p. depends on the nature of the stock; the more steeply cross-sectional area declines with depth, the faster the rate of price increase. We show how the theoretical model may be adapted and parameterized to explain and predict the evolution of markets for specific resources, applying the model in two cases, copper and petroleum. 相似文献
44.
王海燕 《河南金融管理干部学院学报》2014,(11):23-27
公益性社会组织公信力是公益性社会组织获得利益相关者和社会公众信任的能力,体现组织与利益相关者和社会公众的互动关系,是公益性社会组织生存和发展的生命线。我国公益性社会组织公信力缺失的原因在于法律和政策管理错位,公益性社会组织欠缺合法性和自主性,内部治理和发展能力不足,缺乏公开性和透明度,外部监督和评估机制不完善,活动偏离公益使命。为此,急需改善公益性社会组织管理的法律和政策环境,强化其信息披露和内部治理,健全社会监督和问责机制。 相似文献
45.
农村民主政治不健全、经济文化落后、法律制度不完善、社会矛盾激化是影响农村和谐的主要因素。构建农村和谐,必须加强农村法治,用法治来健全农村民主政治,发展农村经济文化,完善农村法律制度,化解农村社会矛盾。 相似文献
46.
文章利用1995 ̄2004年全国28个地区的统计数据,构建了我国省域金融发展综列数据集,并运用固定效应模型对地区金融发展给地区投资带来的影响进行了实证分析。文章认为,我国地区层面的金融发展对地区投资仍然存在正向影响;地区金融发展促进投资增长呈现明显的地区差异;对外开放对各地区的投资增长有显著作用,东部略大,中部次之,西部略小;投资与经济增长之间没有明显的加速提升效应;我国金融改革的当务之急是完善金融结构的功能,改善金融体系功能低下的现状,提高投资效率。 相似文献
47.
This paper investigates the phenomenon of judicial corruption and incorporates it into Polinsky, A. M. (1980). Strict liability
vs. negligence in a market setting. American Economic Review, 70, 363–367 framework so as to analyze the efficiency of the negligence rule. By shedding light on the role of social norms
in regard to the phenomenon of judicial corruption, this analysis provides implications for policy. First, more prevalent
corruption at the status quo tends to intensify the extent of the corruption itself and, as a result, the effectiveness of
the government’s corruption enforcement is greatly lessened. This implies that an excessively lenient policy of corruption
may result in an uncontrollable consequence; once corruption becomes rampant, it is costly to bring it down. Of great importance,
in the presence of such a corruption effect, the social optimum cannot be achieved based on the negligence rule and the equivalence
between the strict liability and negligence rule fails. Secondly, the attitude of the society toward a corrupt judge plays
a crucial role in governing the effectiveness of an efficient wage arrangement. If the society can fully accept a corrupt
judge, corruption will never be controlled even with the incentive wage scheme.
相似文献
Juin-jen ChangEmail: |
48.
49.
最优货币政策分析的一般框架理论综述 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着货币政策在宏观经济调控中的重要性日益提高,对于最优货币政策分析框架的研究也迅速兴起。从最优货币政策的目标出发,本文分析了货币政策的内涵、类型和最优货币分析框架的特征,及政策目标之间的相互关系,货币政策决策方式和几个典型的货币政策规则,特别是通货膨胀目标制及中国的最优货币政策设计,旨在为我国确立的最优货币政策框架提供参考。 相似文献
50.
Exploring the use of travel information – identifying contextual market segmentation in Seoul, Korea
Chang-Hyeon Joh Backjin Lee Miyoung Bin Theo Arentze Harry Timmermans 《Journal of Transport Geography》2011,19(6):1245-1251
As the amount of information is rapidly growing, and ubiquitous urban environments are emerging, the question which kind of information to provide is a major challenge for commercial and public travel-information service providers alike. This paper reports the analyses of recent data, collected in Metropolitan Seoul, about the acquisition of travel information. The study applies CHAID analysis to find homogeneous segments in travel information acquisition. Findings indicate that contextual variables are crucial to explain information acquisition behaviour, depending on decision context. The implication is that both socioeconomic and contextual variables are important to better understand the acquisition (and provision) of travel information. The results have important implications for managers and policy-makers, in particular in the way they respond to dynamic, contextual market segmentation. 相似文献