减速是必然的，增长也是必然的——中期内中国房地产发展前景

本文通过对房地产5大指标的分析,得出15年来中国房地产增长规模惊人、发展速度惊人的结论;通过对5个方面的分析,得出中国房地产中期发展环境基本稳定、有所收紧的结论;最后,通过对3大指标历史数据的模拟,得出中国房地产中期发展前景——减速是必然的,增长也是必然的。     

浅谈民办高校辅导员师德建设

辅导员在学校人才培养中发挥着不可替代的作用。建设一支高素质的高校辅导员队伍的关键是加强辅导员队伍师德建设。当前民办高校的辅导员师德建设的状况并不乐观,出现了一些与民办高校发展不同步的现象。本文力图从民办高校的辅导员师德建设方面提出一些看法,希望就民办高校如何发展方面能够提供一些参考。     

论对少年儿童阅读倾向的引导

正确认识和引导少年儿童的阅读倾向,并以此把握不同年龄段少年儿童的阅读规律,培养其健康的阅读兴趣和良好的阅读习惯,是图书馆少年儿童工作的重要职责。     

浅谈建筑设计中的艺术形式感

建筑作为一种实用艺术,不仅要体现出适用的特点,而且要有美感,要满足人们精神感受上的审美要求。建筑作为艺术门类的一种,遵循和谐和多样统一的美学基本原则。作为一名建筑师来说,创造符合功能的形式美建筑是不可忽视的。     

基于认识论的案例教学法——美国商学院的经验

案例教学是美国商学院重要的教学手段,以建构主义认识论为理论基础。本文以此认识论为基础,致力于探讨美国商学院案例教学中教师与学生的不同角色定位,倡导商学院教育应注重传授缄默知识,并具体分析了美国商学院案例教学对我国的借鉴意义。     

浅论我国会计准则再造

本文主要从我国会计准则的制定过程出发,结合对美国会计准则制定基础变化的研究,揭示了以规则为基础和以原则为基础的两种准则制定基础的辩证关系,探讨了我国会计准则的导向问题,以及我国会计准则国际化的问题。     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

Line and HR executives' perceptions of HR effectiveness in firms in the People's Republic of China

This paper examines the differences in perceptions of the importance and effectiveness of human resources (HR) practices in firms operating in the People's Republic of China. The major finding is that while there are no significant differences between HR and line executives' perceptions of the importance of each functional area in human resource management (HRM), there are significant differences between line and HR executives' perceptions of the effectiveness of these areas. Line and HR executives both view the issue of securing, developing and maintaining human resources as a critical issue for the execution of daily operations and long-term strategic plans. However, line executives perceive HR performance effectiveness as significantly lower in these functional areas than HR executives do. Therefore, HR departments are not meeting the performance expectations of line executives. There are three possible reasons for the poor performance of HR departments. First, government intervention may limit HR departments' ability to act strategically. Second, HR departments may not have enough power to act strategically. Third, HR departments may have few capabilities to respond to line executives' demands.     

Memoryless Reigns of the “Sons of Heaven”

Human lifetimes have increasing failure rates; as people age (beyond early childhood) they are more likely to die. Viewing the succession of Chinese Emperors as a statistical ensemble we show that, unlike lifetimes, their reigns ceased at a constant rate for over two millennia, unaffected by elapsed time. In fact reign lengths of the “Sons of Heaven”, as the Chinese Emperors were known, followed a memoryless exponential distribution with a 10-year half-life. Becoming emperor not only influenced the duration of remaining life, but length of rule was independent of age at ascent. We propose an explanation for the observed exponentiality using asymptotic results from the theory of stationary stochastic processes.     

以“六个坚持”提高宣传思想文化工作水平

文章针对党的十七届四中全会提出的＂提高党的建设科学化水平＂这一重大命题和重大任务,提出应以＂六个坚持,六个自觉＂推动宣传思想文化工作各项任务的落实,不断提高宣传思想文化工作科学化水平。