Essential supremum and essential maximum with respect to random preference relations

In the first part of the paper, we study concepts of supremum and maximum as subsets of a topological space X$X$ endowed by preference relations. Several rather general existence theorems are obtained for the case where the preferences are defined by countable semicontinuous multi-utility representations. In the second part of the paper, we consider partial orders and preference relations “lifted” from a metric separable space X$X$ endowed by a random preference relation to the space L⁰(X)$L^0\left(X\right)$ of X$X$-valued random variables. We provide an example of application of the notion of essential maximum to the problem of the minimal portfolio super-replicating an American-type contingent claim under transaction costs.     

The information content of the term structure of risk-neutral skewness

We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term spread on RNS captures different information from long- and short-term contracts, resulting in stronger predictability. The quintile portfolio with the lowest spread outperforms that with highest spread by 14.64% annually. The term structure of RNS predicts earnings surprises and price crashes. We extract the slope factor from RNS term structure, estimate its risk premium, and explore its relation with several macroeconomic variables.     

Revisiting the roles of gold: Does gold ETF matter?

This study investigates whether the role of gold changes due to the introduction of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) using sample data of seven countries in which physically-backed gold ETFs have been issued. The results show that the traditional roles of gold do change after the introduction of gold ETFs, particularly in the corresponding stock markets. The functions of hedge and safe haven provided by gold wear off during the post-ETF period in stock markets. In currency markets, however, gold still serves as a hedge and safe haven asset, and such effects become stronger during the post-ETF period. Moreover, gold ETFs play a role of relative strong safe haven than the physical gold does while the leading (lagged) stock returns extremely decline. Like the purposes of using physical gold assets, gold ETFs also provide hedge and safe haven effects to the exchange rate risks. Therefore, we might confirm that physical gold could be largely replaced by gold ETFs and investors could utilize gold ETFs to avoid potential risks in financial markets.     

Which form of hedging matters — Operational or financial? Evidence from the US oil and gas sector

We examine the extent and impact of operational and financial hedging on commodity price risk in US oil and gas companies. We find significant exposure to underlying commodity movements. Using a combination of hand collected and publicly available data we examine the impact of hedging strategies. We find no evidence that operational hedging, defined here as multinationality, is effective. In contrast, we find that financial hedging is significant and impactful. Sub-period analysis shows that the effectiveness of financial hedging diminishes when commodity price volatility is high.     

DCC-GARCH、M-Copula-GARCH和Copula-SV在商品期货对冲中的应用研究

中国商品期货市场已经成为全球期货市场不可或缺的重要组成部分。文章比较研究了DCC-GARCH、M-Copula-GARCH和Copula-SV三种模型对我国最重要的期货合约——铜和棉花的对冲比率的影响。结果表明:Copula-SV是最优的对冲模型,文章还发现:二月期的铜期货合约和三月期的棉花期货合约对冲现货的效率最高。     

A production rate control policy for stochastic repair and remanufacturing systems

We consider the control of a manufacturing system responding to planned demand at the end of the expected life of each individual piece of equipment and unplanned demand triggered by a major equipment failure. The difficulty of controlling this type of production system resides in the variable nature of the remanufacturing process. In practice, remanufacturing operations for planned demand can be executed at different rates, referring to different component replacement and repair strategies. We formulate this problem as a multi-level control problem and propose a suboptimal control policy. The proposed control policy is described by inventory thresholds triggering the use of different execution modes. Determination of the control policy parameters is based on parameter optimization of analytical cost expressions. A numerical example based on a real case is presented. Our analysis demonstrates that the use of the proposed control approach can lead to a significant reduction in the total average cost, as compared to current practices.     

Alternative settlement methods and Australian individual share futures contracts

Individual share futures contracts have been introduced in Australia since 1994. Initially, the contracts were settled in cash. In 1996, cash settlement was gradually replaced by physical delivery. This study investigates the effects of the settlement method change on Australian individual stock and its futures markets. Specifically, we examine whether return and volatility of each market, correlation between the two markets, basis behavior, and hedging performance of futures markets differ across cash settlement period and physical delivery period. We find that, after the switch from cash settlement to physical delivery, the futures market, the spot market, and the basis all become more volatile. However, each individual share futures contract becomes a more effective hedging instrument. The improvement in hedging effectiveness is particularly impressive for the most recently established individual share futures contracts.     

Asset Pricing and Hedging in Financial Markets with Transaction Costs: An Approach Based on the Von Neumann–Gale Model

The paper develops a general discrete-time framework for asset pricing and hedging in financial markets with proportional transaction costs and trading constraints. The framework is suggested by analogies between dynamic models of financial markets and (stochastic versions of) the von Neumann–Gale model of economic growth. The main results are hedging criteria stated in terms of “dual variables” – consistent prices and consistent discount factors. It is shown how these results can be applied to specialized models involving transaction costs and portfolio restrictions.     

No-arbitrage criteria for financial markets with transaction costs and incomplete information

This note deals with criteria of absence of arbitrage opportunities for an investor acting in a market with frictions and having a limited access to the information flow. We develop a mathematical scheme covering major models of financial markets with transaction costs and prove several results including a criterion for the robust no-arbitrage property and a hedging theorem.      

人民币汇率波动如何影响中国企业的对外直接投资?

基于2005-2017 "中国全球投资跟踪数据库"的对外投资微观数据,本文考察人民币汇率波动的不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现:人民币汇率波动的增加,不仅减少了中国企业对外直接投资的可能性,也抑制了投资规模,这一结果在考虑内生性问题、样本选择性偏差、不同的汇率波动指标等一系列问题后仍然稳健。基于手工搜集的企业年报数据,研究发现,企业前期的套期保值行为,可以有效规避汇率风险,弱化汇率波动对企业对外投资的抑制作用。进一步研究显示,汇率波动对中国企业对外投资的影响有明显的异质性,投资于不同行业、不同国家的企业以及不同投资方式的企业对人民币汇率波动的反应各异,这又与中国现阶段对外投资的一些独特特征有关。本文研究为汇率波动影响中国企业的对外直接投资行为提供了微观层面的证据。