A jump telegraph model for option pricing

In this paper we introduce a financial market model based on continuous time random motions with alternating constant velocities and jumps occurring when the velocities are switching. This model is free of arbitrage if jump directions are in a certain correspondence with the velocities of the underlying random motion. Replicating strategies for European options are constructed in detail. Exact formulae for option prices are derived.     

Moment swaps

In this paper we discuss moment swaps. These derivatives depend on the realized higher moments of the underlying. A special case is the nowadays popular variance swaps. After introducing moment swaps we discuss how to hedge these derivatives. Moreover, we show how the classical hedge of the variance swap in terms of a position in log-contracts and a dynamic trading strategy can be significantly enhanced by using third moment swaps.     

Modeling stock pinning

This paper investigates the effect of hedging strategies on the so-called pinning effect, i.e. the tendency of stock's prices to close near the strike price of heavily traded options as the expiration date nears. In the paper we extend the analysis of Avellaneda and Lipkin, who propose an explanation of stock pinning in terms of delta hedging strategies for long option positions. We adopt a model introduced by Frey and Stremme and show that, under the original assumptions of the model, pinning is driven by two effects: a hedging-dependent drift term that pushes the stock price toward the strike price and a hedging-dependent volatility term that constrains the stock price near the strike as it approaches it. Finally, we show that pinning can be generated by simulating trading in a double auction market. Pinning in the microstructure model is consistent with the Frey and Stremme model when both discrete hedging and stochastic impact are taken into account.     

《老友记》中的幽默现象——基于评价系统介入理论的分析

介入反映话语使用者如何通过明确的言语手段或态度和情感的间接表达来构建语篇。在使用语言的过程中,语言使用者利用介入手段调节其对所说或所写内容承担的责任和义务,即通过投射观点,列入条件,让步以及使用情态词,表现了话语使用者言语的不确定性和模糊性,从而自然地表现了话语的幽默效果。     

Determinants of corporate hedging: A (statistical) meta-analysis

While literature provides several hedging theories, evidence on the corporate incentives to hedge remains ambiguous. We synthesize data of empirical studies via statistical meta-analysis to test different hedging hypotheses. To our knowledge, this constitutes the first application of such a methodology in financial economics. Our results imply that financial distress costs induce firms to hedge. We find weak evidence that the underinvestment problem and the dependence on costly external financing influence hedging behavior. Taxes and agency conflicts do not show explanatory power. Because statistical and narrative reviews yield different outcomes, we see various other application possibilities for meta-analysis in financial economics.     

The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth

One of the most important developments in international finance and resource economics in the past twenty years is the rapid and widespread emergence of the $6 trillion sovereign wealth fund industry. Oil exporters typically ignore below-ground assets when allocating these funds, and ignore above-ground assets when extracting oil. We present a unified stylized framework for considering both. Subsoil oil should alter a fund’s portfolio through additional leverage and hedging. First-best spending should be a share of total wealth, and any unhedgeable volatility must be managed by precautionary savings. If oil prices are pro-cyclical, oil should be extracted faster than the Hotelling rule to generate a risk premium on oil wealth. Finally, we discuss how our analysis could improve the management of Norway’s fund in practice.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Investment Characteristics of Alternative Gold Assets

Employing daily data over the period 1987–2010, we examine the diversifying, hedging and safe haven properties of gold bullion, gold stocks, gold mutual funds, and gold exchange traded funds (ETFs). First, with regard to gold bullion, we document a clear and strong hedging role over a mere diversifying capability. Second, our results highlight that gold stocks, gold mutual funds, and gold ETFs tend to be diversifiers. Third, both gold bullion and gold ETFs show support for the safe haven property. However, gold stocks and gold mutual funds display very little evidence of the safe haven characteristic. Consequently, investors who are keen on securing the safe haven features of gold investment cannot generally rely on gold stocks or mutual funds. Instead, they need to take positions directly in bullion or gold ETFs.     

Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine whether investments in precious metals are a hedge against exchange-rate movements. We quantify the relative importance of several major exchange rates, and we study how the marginal effects differ across times of appreciations/depreciations and across times of small/large exchange-rate fluctuations. Results show that investments in gold and silver are strong hedges against depreciations of major exchange rates. The hedging properties of palladium and platinum are mainly confined to the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. We also study whether precious metals investments are a safe-haven in times of large exchange-rate movements.     

Minimizing CVaR in global dynamic hedging with transaction costs

This study develops a global derivatives hedging methodology which takes into account the presence of transaction costs. It extends the Hodges and Neuberger [Rev. Futures Markets, 1989, 8, 222–239] framework in two ways. First, to reduce the occurrence of extreme losses, the expected utility is replaced by the conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) coherent risk measure as the objective function. Second, the normality assumption for the underlying asset returns is relaxed: general distributions are considered to improve the realism of the model and to be consistent with fat tails observed empirically. Dynamic programming is used to solve the hedging problem. The CVaR minimization objective is shown to be part of a time-consistent framework. Simulations with parameters estimated from the S&P 500 financial time series show the superiority of the proposed hedging method over multiple benchmarks from the literature in terms of tail risk reduction.     

现代金融背景下外贸企业的外汇期货套期保值策略研究

外贸企业利用外汇期货套期保值可以规避金融风险,实现稳定赢利.然而我国企业在这方面远落后于时代.文章探讨了现代金融风险特征和套期保值的必要性与可行性,分析了制约我国企业实施套期保值策略的因素,提出了相应的建议与措施.研究结果说明现代金融背景下企业实施外汇期货套期保值不仅是必要的,也是完全可行的,为企业实施套期保值提供了理论支持.