Estimation of the Option Prime: Microsimulation of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

A mathematical statistical model is needed to obtain an option prime and create a hedging strategy. With formulas derived from stochastic differential equations, the primes for US Dollar/Chilean Pesos currency options using a prime calculator are obtained. Furthermore, a backward simulation of the option prime trajectory is used with a numerical method created for backward stochastic differential equations. The use of statistics in finance is highly important in order to develop complex products.     

Hedging, hedge accounting, and speculation in a rational expectations equilibrium

This paper explains corporate hedging and speculation in a two period rational expectations model. A risk averse manager represents a firm that is priced in a risk neutral market. The manager enters into a cash flow hedge of a forecast transaction by taking a short position in the futures market. When the futures position is chosen, the manager possesses private information regarding the firm’s production capacity. Mandatory disclosure of the futures position in the financial statements allows the market to draw inferences over the manager’s information. These inferences affect the market’s pricing decision and in turn the manager’s hedging decision. The futures position taken is chosen not only to reduce price risk exposure but to signal some capacity level. In equilibrium, however, the market anticipates the manager’s strategy and is not fooled.Considering varying managerial preferences, we analyze three settings. In the basic setting speculation occurs whenever the manager prefers high market values in both periods. In the second setting we add transaction costs and find that speculation is less likely. Finally, we introduce uncertainty regarding the manager’s preferences. If the market needs to determine prices based on expected preferences, incentives to speculate are mitigated in equilibrium but still present.     

《老友记》中的幽默现象——基于评价系统介入理论的分析

介入反映话语使用者如何通过明确的言语手段或态度和情感的间接表达来构建语篇。在使用语言的过程中,语言使用者利用介入手段调节其对所说或所写内容承担的责任和义务,即通过投射观点,列入条件,让步以及使用情态词,表现了话语使用者言语的不确定性和模糊性,从而自然地表现了话语的幽默效果。     

Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach

We develop a new multivariate generalized ARCH (GARCH) parameterization suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varying volatility, even under the null of a constant hedge ratio. The model is estimated using weekly corn prices. Statistical tests reject the null hypothesis of a constant hedge ratio and also reject the null that time variation in optimal hedge ratios can be explained solely by deterministic seasonality and time to maturity effects.     

Determinants of weather derivatives usage in the Austrian winter tourism industry

This study investigates the motivations, concerns and obstacles regarding the use of weather derivatives in the winter tourism industry. The findings from the interviews with 61 ski lift operators in Austria indicate that while the majority of operators are aware of weather risks and report substantial weather exposure, using weather derivatives as a means of offsetting potential loss is rarely considered. This is primarily due to a lack of awareness and knowledge, but on becoming aware of the availability of such instruments ski lift operators express interest in their possible use. The task is thus to increase awareness, knowledge and support for the ski lift operators with reference to the use of weather derivatives.     

Moment swaps

In this paper we discuss moment swaps. These derivatives depend on the realized higher moments of the underlying. A special case is the nowadays popular variance swaps. After introducing moment swaps we discuss how to hedge these derivatives. Moreover, we show how the classical hedge of the variance swap in terms of a position in log-contracts and a dynamic trading strategy can be significantly enhanced by using third moment swaps.     

A jump telegraph model for option pricing

In this paper we introduce a financial market model based on continuous time random motions with alternating constant velocities and jumps occurring when the velocities are switching. This model is free of arbitrage if jump directions are in a certain correspondence with the velocities of the underlying random motion. Replicating strategies for European options are constructed in detail. Exact formulae for option prices are derived.     

Modeling stock pinning

This paper investigates the effect of hedging strategies on the so-called pinning effect, i.e. the tendency of stock's prices to close near the strike price of heavily traded options as the expiration date nears. In the paper we extend the analysis of Avellaneda and Lipkin, who propose an explanation of stock pinning in terms of delta hedging strategies for long option positions. We adopt a model introduced by Frey and Stremme and show that, under the original assumptions of the model, pinning is driven by two effects: a hedging-dependent drift term that pushes the stock price toward the strike price and a hedging-dependent volatility term that constrains the stock price near the strike as it approaches it. Finally, we show that pinning can be generated by simulating trading in a double auction market. Pinning in the microstructure model is consistent with the Frey and Stremme model when both discrete hedging and stochastic impact are taken into account.     

保单持有人退保行为对变额年金利益保证风险对冲的影响研究

给出保单持有人退保行为影响下的变额年金定价模型和对冲模型,当保单持有人分别采取无退保、固定退保和动态退保三种行为策略时,基于包含最低身故利益保证、最低满期利益保证和最低提取利益保证的三种不同的变额年金,运用蒙特卡罗模拟测试出保单持有人采取不同的退保策略对不同利益保证的变额年金风险对冲有着显著的不同影响。