Evidence on the existence of speculative bubbles in farmland prices

We conduct tests for the contribution of speculative bubbles to farmland prices. These tests are carried out under the hypothesis that farmland investors rationally form expectations. The outcome of tests reported here allows us to infer whether farmland prices are determined by market fundamentals-discounted returns from the highest economic land use-or whether rumors about farmland price movements are self-fulfilling. The tests are stationarity and cointegration tests relating farmland prices to rents. The tests are carried out using data from three farm production regions-the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, and the Lake States. In each region, we find little evidence to reject the hypothesis that market fundamentals determine farmland prices.     

采取网络型的政府市场供给模式应对房价问题

面对不断飙升的房价,从理论界到政策层面对其原因都有不同的解读,但从实践结果来看对房价的治理并不理想。本文在综合分析理论研究与国家调控政策的基础上,认为创新措施采取网络型的政府市场供给模式是解决房价过快上涨的有效途径。文章着重对这一模式进行了分析,并认为此举对缓解供需矛盾、解决市场的信息不对称、市场操控、改变预期、稳定房价等都有非常重要的作用。     

Some Evidence on the Adjustment of Producer Prices*

We document producer price adjustment using a low‐inflation micro price dataset. On average 24% of prices adjust each month, with an average increase/decrease of 6%. Producer prices adjust more frequently than consumer prices, but their size of adjustment is typically smaller. Sectoral heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is strongly related to heterogeneity in the cost structure. Fluctuations in aggregate producer price inflation occur to a large extent through variation in the relative share of upward and downward price adjustment.     

Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks

This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974–75 and the strong revival in 1976–78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key.     

Commodity currencies

This paper looks at real exchange rate behavior by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a purchasing power parity puzzle in the residual. The results here are relevant to developing commodity-exporting countries as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.     

中国房价暴涨的政治学解读

解读10年来的《政府工作报告》,可以发现中国政府对房地产经历了一个从鼓励、扶植、提倡到适度限制、调控、理性对待的过程。中国的房地产价格上涨有充分的客观原因,政局稳定、现代化进程中的城市化效应、宏观经济提速、政府对土地供应严控都是房价上涨的政治因素,但房价暴涨则与政府特别是地方政府调控不力有关,与制度漏洞有关。因此,解决中国的房地产价格问题需要制度创新。     

The relationship between major-league sports’ official sponsorship announcements and the stock prices of sponsoring firms

This study presents analysis of the impact of “official product” sports sponsorships with the National Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Hockey League (NHL), the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the Professional Golfers Association (PGA) on the stock prices of sponsoring firms. The primary finding of the study is that, in the main, announcements were accompanied by increases in shareholder wealth. The 53 sponsors analyzed experienced mean increases in stock valuations of about $257 million. A multiple regression analysis of firm-specific stock price changes and selected corporate and sponsorship attributes indicates that official product sponsorships with the NBA, NHL, and PGA and those with smaller market shares were associated with the largest gains in share prices. Although corporate cashflow (a proxy for agency conflicts) is statistically unrelated to shareholder approval, sponsorships by high-technology companies were associated with stronger stock price reactions than otherwise. Finally, product congruence with the sponsored sport was positively related to changes in stock prices. T. Bettina Cornwell (b.cornwell@business.uq.edu.au) is Professor of Marketing and Leader of the Marketing cluster in the UQ Business School at the University of Queensland, Australia. She was formerly Professor of Marketing in the Fogelman College of Business and Economics at the University of Memphis. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Texas. Her research focuses on promotion and consumer behavior, especially with regard to international and public policy issues. Other articles on the topic of sponsorship-linked marketing have recently appeared in theJournal of Advertising, the Journal of Advertising Research, theJournal of Business Research, andPsychology & Marketing. Stephen W. Pruitt (pruittst@umkc.edu) is the holder of the Arvin Gottlieb/Missouri Endowed Chair of Business Economics and Finance in the Henry W. Bloch School of Business and Public Administration at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. He has published more than 45 articles, most of which employ event study methodologies, in journals such as theJournal of Finance, theJournal of Political Economy, Financial Management, theJournal of Public Policy and Marketing, and theJournal of Advertising Research. John M. Clark (clarkj@cba.usm.edu) is an assistant professor of finance at the University of Southern Mississippi. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Alabama. His research interests include options and other derivatives, investments, and the impact of real events upon the stock prices of corporations. His work has appeared in scholarly outlets such as theJournal of Advertising Research, theFinancial Review, and theJournal of Business Ethics.     

倾销幅度测算中的偏颇之处

倾销幅度测算是裁定倾销以及实施反倾销措施的依据和基础。然而,具体操作过程中存在的偏颇之处,使得调查结果总是倾向发现“倾销幅度”,从而裁定倾销存在。本文以倾销幅度测算过程中的不合理之处为分析对象,举例说明了在很多情况下,原本不存在的倾销行为,是如何在现行的规定下被测算出了“倾销幅度”。     

资产价格波动与银行体系稳定

由资产价格剧烈波动引发的银行危机乃至金融危机会对一国银行体系稳定造成不良影响、这种不良影响表现为资产价格波动对经济总体变量有一定影响，并可能引起银行危机、银行风险、货币政策波动等方面的问题．最终影响到银行体系的稳定。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003